Gold Cup Semifinal: USA vs Panama Betting Analysis
Panama Star in Quarters
USA Get PK Shootout Win
Gold Cup hosts USA take on Panama on Wednesday night in what should be an electric semifinal matchup. Panama were excellent in the quarterfinal, taking down Qatar 4-0. Meanwhile, the USA managed to get by Canada after 120 difficult minutes. The USMNT won 3-2 in penalties following a 2-2 match with multiple lead changes. After the USA’s scare, we’ll take a look at their odds in our USA vs Panama betting analysis.
CONCACAF Gold Cup
USA vs Panama
Date, time:
Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, USA
Head-to-Head
The USA and Panama have met 11 previous times in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. The USA have won six matches outright and Panama have taken one. Two of the four draws were in the group stage. Of the two knockout stage draws, each team has won one PK shootout.
A USA vs Panama betting analysis notes three of the last four Gold Cup meetings have finished in 90-minute 1-1 draws. The last Gold Cup matchup finished 1-0 to the USA in 2019, though. The USMNT have also won five of their last six matches vs. Panama, in all competitions.
Turner Hero for USA in PKs
- Last Match: 2-2 D vs. Canada (3-2 W in PKs)
- Group Stage Standings: 2-1-0, 1st Group A
When the USA took on Canada in the quarterfinal, both teams failed to score in the first 87 minutes. When super sub Brandon Vazquez broke the deadlock with a guiding header, it looked like the Stars and Stripes would go on to win. However, Canada got a stoppage time penalty on a Miles Robinson hand ball and Steven Vitoria leveled the score.
The match went into extra time and it was Canada who went ahead on a brilliant solo goal from Jacob Shaffelburg. A relentless USA refused to give up and sent the match to penalties as they forced a Canada own goal on a scramble in the box. In penalties, USA goalkeeper Matt Turner made two saves to help the USMNT get a 3-2 PK win.
While B.J. Callaghan will undoubtedly be happy that the USA are through to the semis, he’ll have a selection headache for Wednesday.
The USA, who have been a good option for betting on soccer recently, have less than 72 hours in between matches. Plus, players like Alejandro Zendejas, Jalen Neal, Julian Gressel, Miles Robinson and Djordje Mihailovic were underwhelming in the quarterfinal.
Jesus Ferreira, who has scored two hat tricks in the Gold Cup, failed to score on Sunday vs. Canada. Still, he displayed versatility and caused problems for the Canadian defense in multiple positions. Ferreira leads the Gold Cup, with six goals, while Vazquez has added another three. Our USA vs Panama betting analysis notes that the USA have outscored their opponents 15-3 so far.
Panama Dominate in Quarters
- Last Match: 4-0 W vs. Qatar
- Group Stage Standings: 2-1-0, 1st Group C
It was smooth sailing for Panama in the quarterfinal vs. Qatar. Los Canaleros got out to a first half lead as Edgar Barcenas finished off a pass from Eric Davis. Panama continued to push and got another goal in the second half through Ismael Diaz. Diaz went on to score a second half hat trick as Panama managed an impressive 4-0 win.
Panama’s quarterfinal win follows a first place finish in the Group C Gold Cup 2023 standings. Los Canaleros have been highly impressive throughout the tournament as only the USA and Jamaica have scored more goals. The shutout vs. Qatar was the first of the tournament for Panama. They’ve also scored at least twice in all of their four Gold Cup matches.
Prior to the start of the knockout rounds, Panama lost Michael Murillo to an injury. The wingback has since returned to Belgium to be further evaluated. Still, Panama have a lot of quality and easily dispatched a Qatar side that beat Mexico in the group stage. Now, Panama are just one win away from their third Gold Cup final in team history.
Match Analysis & Odds
The CONCACAF betting odds list the USA as one-goal favorites for the match. USA -1 comes in at -105 odds, while Panama +1 clocks in at -125. While Panama dominated on Saturday vs. Qatar, the USA looked shaky on Sunday night vs. Canada. Panama also has an extra day of rest heading into this one.
Panama and the USA have scored in each of their Gold Cup matches but under 2.5 goals sit at -135 odds here. The two leading scorers in the tournament will be in action, as Jesus Ferreira should start for the USA and Ismael Diaz could line up on the wing for Panama. In their last three matches vs. Panama, the USA have averaged well over three goals per game.
Still, this is not the USA’s A-team and Panama could be feeling confident as a result. Los Canaleros decimated Qatar in the quarters and have beaten Costa Rica this tournament as well. Regardless, the USMNT are -180 moneyline favorites, while Panama show +525 odds to win the match. Bettors can take a draw at +300.
Overall, the oddsmakers give the USA an implied 80 percent chance of advancing to a fourth straight final. USA to qualify stands at -400 odds. In Panama’s first semifinal appearance since 2015, they’re priced at +300 odds to advance.
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