Gold Cup Quarterfinal: USA vs Canada Betting Analysis
Rematch of Nations League Final
USA Score Flurry of Goals in Group Stage
The USA started off slowly in their Gold Cup opener vs. Jamaica. It took a late equalizer just to come away with a point. Then, the USA scored 12 goals over their next two matches to win Group A on goal difference. Following two 6-0 wins, the USMNT take on Canada in the last Gold Cup quarterfinal of the weekend. Of course, this is a rematch of the recent Nations League final, which the USA won. The rosters may look a lot different this time around but we’ll cover all the factors affecting the match in our USA vs Canada betting analysis.
CONCACAF Gold Cup
USA vs Canada
Date, time:
Location: TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, USA
Head-to-Head
Recently, this has been a difficult match for betting on soccer. Over the last three meetings, both teams have picked up a win and the other match finished in a draw. Not even a month ago, the USMNT defeated Canada 2-0 in the CONCACAF Nations League final. First half goals from Chris Richards and Folrain Balogun were the difference. The Americans haven’t lost to Canada at home since 1957 as well.
Record-Breaking Group Stage for USA
- Last Match: 6-0 W vs. Trinidad and Tobago
- Standings: 2-1-0, 1st Group A
The USA scored 13 goals in just three Gold Cup group stage matches, which is a record for them. In back-to-back matches, the USMNT matched their biggest-ever Gold Cup margin of victory. Following a 1-1 draw vs. Jamaica, the USA defeated Saint Kitts and Nevis and Trinidad and Tobago by 6-0 scorelines. In both matches, Jesus Ferreira scored hat tricks and became the only USA player ever to score back-to-back hat tricks.
Ferreira is also the only US player other than Landon Donovan to score three hat tricks or his country. Plus, he’s the only player in Gold Cup history with two hat tricks in the competition. Ferreira was a big part of why the USA finished in first place in the Group A Gold Cup 2023 standings.
Goalkeeper Matt Turner also posted two shutouts in the group stage and became the fastest USA goalkeeper to reach 20 shutouts. In just 30 matches, Turner has posted both 20 wins and shutouts. Along with scoring the most goals of any team in the group stage, the USA also conceded the fewest goals. Along with Ferreira and Turner, midfielder Djordje Mihailovic has been a standout performer.
Canada Limp to Quarterfinal
- Last Match: 4-2 W vs. Cuba
- Standings: 1-2-0, 2nd Group D
Like the USA, Canada don’t have their best players taking part in the Gold Cup. None of Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Stephen Eustaquio and Cyle Larin are on the roster. Still, Canada was expected to be one of the strongest teams at the Gold Cup. Instead, they drew their first two opening matches to Guadeloupe and Guatemala.
Our USA vs Canada betting analysis also notes that Les Rogues gave up multiple goals in two different matches. Plus, Canada’s number one goalkeeper, Milan Borjan is out for the rest of the tournament after sustaining an injury. Dayne St. Clair started in a 4-2 win over Cuba, which clinched second place in Group D for Canada.
In the match, midfielder Liam Millar scored his first international goal for Canada. Regardless, Les Rogues disappointingly finished behind Guatemala in Group D which means they take on the USA instead of Jamaica. With a more difficult route to the final, Canada’s odds to win the tournament are at +700.
Match Analysis and Odds
The USA are -125 ATS and moneyline favorites to get a second win over Canada in the span of three weeks. It certainly helps that the USMNT are playing in front of their home fans in Cincinnati. The Stars and Stripes have also played excellent under interim coach B.J. Callaghan, with a 4-1-0 record. Canada, under coach John Herdman, are +300 underdogs for this one.
Canada have lost just one of their last three matches to the USA and Canada +0.5 sits at -105 odds here. A third Canada draw in four matches displays +285 odds for this one. Despite their play so far, our USA vs Canada betting analysis notes that the US trail Mexico in the Gold Cup futures odds. Mexico are +110 favorites to win the tournament, while the USA enter the knockout stage at +285.
Expect Jesus Ferreira to start here for the USA given his excellent recent play. Alan Sonora is out for the rest of the tournament while first match starter Aidan Morris left US camp for personal reasons. So, the midfield trio of Gianluca Busio, James Sands and Djordje Mihailovic could make a third straight start.
The USA have piled on the goals in their last two matches but under 2.5 goals are priced at -120 odds here. The last four meetings between these teams have finished with two goals or fewer, though. The winners will advance to the semifinals to take on the winners of Panama vs. Qatar next Wednesday in San Diego.
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