CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinal: Mexico vs Costa Rica Odds
El Tri vs. Los Ticos in Quarterfinal
CONCACAF Powerhouses Face Off
Along with the USA, Mexico and Costa Rica have been the only CONCACAF mainstays in recent World Cups. Mexico have appeared at the last eight editions of the tournament, while Costa Rica have qualified for the last three. The two sides will meet early in the Gold Cup knockout stage as they contest a semifinal fixture on Saturday. El Tri have gotten the better of Los Ticos recently but Mexico are coming off a 1-0 loss to Qatar. With that in mind, we’ll preview the Mexico vs. Costa Rica betting odds.
CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinal
Mexico vs Costa Rica
Date, time:
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, USA
Head-to-Head
Soccer predictions for this fixture generally give Mexico a better shot to win than Costa Rica. In fact, Costa Rica haven’t defeated Mexico for nearly a decade. The last time they played was back in a January 2022 World Cup Qualifier, which finished scoreless. Mexico were previously on a five-game winning streak in this fixture and are unbeaten in the last 10 head-to-head matchups.
Mexico Lose to Qatar and Win Group B
- Last Match: 0-1 L vs. Qatar
- Standings: 2-1, 1st Group B
Mexico were dominant in Jaime Lozano’s first two matches as interim head coach. El Tri bounced back from CONCACAF Nations League disappointment and defeated Honduras 4-0 in their opening match. Luis Romo scored twice in the first half and set the tone for an El Tri team starved of goals. Mexico’s second match was more difficult and El Tri and Haiti went into the break scoreless.
Henry Martin broke the deadlock not even a minute into the second half, and Mexico went on to win the match 3-1. With six points through two games, Mexico clinched knockout stage qualification with a game to spare. Still, they entered their match vs. Qatar as 1.5-goal ATS and -290 moneyline favorites. Gerardo Arteaga also returned from a three-game suspension to start at left back.
Carlos Rodriguez, Santiago Gimenez and Ozziel Herrera all made their first starts of the tournament in the match vs. Qatar as well. With a new look frontline, Mexico couldn’t find a breakthrough. Instead, Qatar opened the scoring in the first half through a Hazem Shehata header.
Mexico outshot Qatar 25 to one and kept 77 percent possession in the match but still couldn’t score. So, El Tri fell 1-0 but still managed to win Group B. It was Jaime Lozano’s first loss as Mexico coach and El Tri’s first Gold Cup group stage loss since 2013. Still, they’re the CONCACAF Gold Cup favorites and sit at +110 odds to win the tournament.
Costa Rica Win Wild Match vs. Martinique
- Last Match: 6-4 W vs. Martinique
- Standings: 1-1-1, 2nd Group C
Costa Rica entered the final match of the group stage needing a win to advance to the quarterfinals. The Ticos’ play through the first two games was uninspired and they opened their tournament up with a 2-1 loss to Panama. They couldn’t get on the scoresheet in their next match vs. El Salvador, which finished 0-0. So, it all came down to a wild match vs. Martinique.
Leading 2-1 at halftime, Costa Rica scored the next three goals of the match. With the Ticos up 5-1, Martinique quickly got two goals to make things interesting again. Diego Campos scored his first goal for Costa Rica in the 89th minute and Martinique added another consolation goal. The match finished 6-4 and Costa Rica sealed second place in Group C with the win.
They’ve now qualified for a 13th straight Gold Cup knockout stage. However, Costa Rica have made it past the quarters in just one of their last six appearances. They’re also without key goalkeeper Keylor Navas, who certainly could have come in handy when the Ticos conceded four goals on Tuesday. Sure, they managed to put six goals on Martinique but won less than convincingly when all was said and done.
Luis Fernando Suarez will most certainly need a better defensive effort from his team here. Mexico will punish any Costa Rican mistakes, which means that the Ticos also need to be better in possession. In any case, the Mexico vs. Costa Rica betting odds price Costa Rica as underdogs.
Match Analysis and Odds
The oddsmakers seem to expect Mexico to bounce back from their defeat to Qatar in this match. El Tri enter the match as 1.5-goal favorites and have kept four straight clean sheets vs. Costa Rica. Still, this has been a low-scoring fixture lately and Mexico -1.5 displays +110 odds here. In the last four head-to-head matchups, there have only been two goals total.
However, the Mexico vs. Costa Rica betting odds price over 2.5 goals at -140. That could certainly have to do with Costa Rica’s defense, which hasn’t exactly looked organized during the tournament. If Martinique can put four goals on Los Ticos, Mexico will certainly be confident of scoring. Costa Rica also conceded seven goals to Spain and four to Germany at the Qatar 2022 World Cup.
In any case, Costa Rica +1.5 comes in at -140 odds. Los Ticos are +600 underdogs to get their first win over Mexico since October 2013. Mexico, who have won seven of the last nine matchups, are -260 favorites. They also show -450 odds to advance to the semifinal, while Costa Rica’s implied chances of advancing are just over 23 percent. Costa Rica show +325 odds to make their first semifinal since 2017.
Longtime forward Joel Campbell is a player to watch for Costa Rica. He was a joint-leader in the group stage, with three assists and also scored a goal. It’ll be an uphill battle for Costa Rica to get a victory here and they have a better chance to force extra time. A draw sits at +390 odds for Saturday night’s match.
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