Arizona Visits Reds For Three-Game Series
D'Back vs Reds Odds See Arizona as Slight Favorites
The Arizona Diamondbacks visit Cincinnati for three games beginning Tuesday. Arizona is 15-20 on the season despite a +7 run differential. Cincinnati has lost five straight games and fell to 16-18, leaving it one game back in the MLB wild card standings.
The losing streak coincides with the bats suddenly going quiet. The Reds are averaging 2.3 runs over their last seven MLB games. The D’Backs vs Reds odds see Gallen and the Diamondbacks -124 over Cincinnati. The total on the game is 9-over (-118).
The Diamondbacks are hitting .249 on the season, which is No. 9 in Major League Baseball. Arizona is No. 18 in home runs and No. 7 in on-base percentage due to drawing a high number of walks.
The Diamondbacks are averaging 4.8 runs per game on the road.
The pitching has been suspect at times, with Arizona No. 22 in team ERA. The Diamondbacks have allowed 38 home runs, which is 10th worse in MLB. Opposing hitters are batting .255 against the Diamondbacks, which is No. 24 in the league.
The Reds don’t hit for average, ranking last with a .210 batting average. Cincinnati is tied for No. 18 in home runs, which helps. Considering how low the batting average is, the Reds have done a decent job scoring runs. Cincinnati averages 4.5 runs per game, which is No. 15 in baseball.
The Reds have an MLB team ERA of 4.00, which is No. 13. Cincinnati allows 4.4 runs per game, so the pitching staff is pretty average overall. The Reds pitchers do give their team a chance to win most games. It’s up to the offense to capitalize on its chances.
Game 1
D’Back vs Reds 
Day/Time:
Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
Tuesday’s Game
The Diamondbacks are 3-3 when Gallen starts this season and he’s brilliant at home. In Arizona, the Diamondbacks are 3-0 and he has an ERA of 0.53.
It’s a different story on the road, where the Diamondbacks are 0-3 and Gallen has an ERA of 6.60. The average MLB scores see Arizona being outscored 3.0-6.7 when Gallen starts away from home.
Montas is coming back from 15 days on the MLB injured list after some forearm soreness. He’s had a few solid starts and a couple that weren’t so impressive. The Reds are 3-2 when he starts this season.
The D’Backs vs Reds odds of Arizona -124 make it tough to back the Diamondbacks with Gallen’s road numbers. You’d like to see a little more from Montas before backing him.
Strictly from a value standpoint, the way to play this one is most likely the over for one of your best MLB bets today.
Wednesday’s Game
Jordan Montgomery gets the start for the Diamondbacks against Graham Ashcraft. Montgomery is coming off a rough outing, but hasn’t pitched bad for the most part.
He missed some time at the start of the season after signing late. The MLB news and rumors had him signing a few different places before he settled on Arizona.
The Reds are averaging 4.2 runs per game against left-handers this season.
Ashcraft is off to a decent start. He had some rough moments his first two years in the league, but stuck through them. His last two starts have been solid and Cincinnati is 3-3 when he starts.
The Reds have won both of his home starts despite his 8.43 ERA at home. On the road, the Reds are 1-3 and his ERA is 1.50.
The D’Backs vs Reds odds will see Cincinnati favored in this one, but there could be some value with Arizona. The Diamondbacks are worth a look at +110 or better, although that may be tough to find.
Thursday’s Game
Slade Cecconi is scheduled to make his fourth start of the MLB season in the series finale. Arizona is 1-2 in his starts this year. He’s pitched well twice, but had a rough outing against the Padres in his last start.
He has pitched a little better on the road, but we’re dealing with a pretty small sample size.
Hunter Greene has been one of the tough-luck pitchers so far in 2024. The Reds are 1-6 when he starts despite a 3.12 ERA. It’s even worse at home, where the Reds are 0-5 with him on the mound.
His ERA at home is 3.98, but the bullpen has let him down on several occasions. He hasn’t allowed any runs over his last two starts.
You can’t really back Greene based on the team’s record when he starts. Things should turn around eventually, but you don’t want to use the fact that somebody may be due for a win to be the reason you back them.
The D’Backs vs Reds odds will see Greene as a good-sized favorite, so Ciccone could be a decent value play.
For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
