Twins Lose Winning Streak and Now Face First-Place Mariners

Mariners vs Twins Odds: Seattle Strong Under Play

The Minnesota Twins’ 12-game winning streak is over. What do they have in store? The Twins open a four-game series at Target Field against the AL West-leading Seattle Mariners. The Mariners vs Twins odds favor Seattle at -115 on the moneyline and it is -1.5 (+145) on the run line. Minnesota is +1.5 (-175) on the run line and -105 to win outright. The projected total is 8, with a slight edge to the under at -112 odds. The series is a pick ’em, with both MLB teams holding -115 odds to win.

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What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and analyze the Mariners vs Twins odds in our MLB series preview.

Mariners logo Mariners vs Twins Twins logo

Records: Seattle Mariners (19-15), Minnesota Twins (19-14) 
Day/Time
:
Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Streaming: BSNO

Mariners vs Twins Betting Trends

The Mariners are 17-17 against the run line, including 6-4 over their last 10 games. Most of their games have gone under the projected total, as the Mariners are just 8-24-2 against the over/under. Nobody has gone under the total at a higher rate than Seattle (75%). Kansas City is the next closest team at 66.7%.

The Twins, meanwhile, are 17-16 ATS, including 3-8 over their last 11 MLB games. As for the over/under, the Twins are 16-15-2.

That’s important to remember when assessing the Mariners vs Twins odds.

Mariners Dubbed Division Favorites

The Astros’ surprisingly poor start (12-22) has opened the door for opportunity in the American League West. Seattle has taken advantage of that, grabbing the division lead with a record of 19-15. The Mariners took two of three from the Astros over the weekend, beating them 5-0 on Saturday and 5-4 on Sunday.

What’s most impressive about the Mariners’ start is how they’ve withstood an unusually slow start from their best hitter, Julio Rodriguez. The two-time All-Star has just one homer over his first 134 at-bats to go with a .308 on-base percentage and .621 OPS. He went 2-for-12 and failed to drive in a run in the Astros series.

The Mariners rank near the bottom of MLB in several offensive categories, including batting average (.223, 26th), runs scored (124, tied for 26th), and on-base percentage (.302, 23rd). But they have overcome those issues thanks to their rotation, which remains among baseball’s best. The 1-2-3 of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert is sure to keep them in contention.

Oddsmakers have priced them accordingly. The Mariners (projected for 87 wins) are +115 favorites to win the AL West and +600 to win the pennant. Meanwhile, their World Series odds are +1400, the sixth shortest on the board, and one of seven clubs at 15/1 or better.

With a record of 17-17 ATS, the Mariners are still a bit difficult for bettors to trust. But that may change once Rodriguez and the rest of Seattle’s offense heats up.

Be sure to keep that in mind when reviewing the Mariners vs Twins odds and your MLB picks.

Winning Streak Over, What’s Next?

Despite Sunday’s 9-2 loss to Boston, Minnesota remains one of baseball’s hottest teams. The Twins had won their previous 12 games, allowing them to change the conversation after such a poor start to the season. Minnesota is now 19-14, 2.5 games behind Cleveland atop the AL Central. As such, the Twins (projected for 85.5 wins) remain among the favorites to win the division at +160.

MLB injuries have been an issue, with shortstop Carlos Correa and outfielder Max Kepler both having spent time on the injured list. Oft-injured outfielder Byron Buxton (knee inflammation) is the latest Twin to land on the IL.

The Twins have been middle-of-the-road offensively, ranking 14th in runs (153), 15th in average (.239) and 17th in homers (34). Like Seattle, they’ve gotten a big boost from their pitching. Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan is one of baseball’s top one-two punches, with both pitchers averaging more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings.

Expect them to rank amongst the MLB stat leaders by year’s end. They also have an elite closer in Jhoan Duran, who recently returned from an oblique strain.

Minnesota is now +800 to win the AL, one of six clubs with 10/1 odds or better, and +1900 to win the World Series.

Series Probables

Game 1

  • Monday, 7:40 p.m. ET
  • Luis Castillo vs Simeon Woods Richardson

Castillo is rounding into form after a tough start this MLB season. The Seattle ace has won his last three starts to improve to 3-4 with a 3.46 ERA, allowing just two runs over his last 20 innings while striking out 22. He threw seven shutout innings in his last outing, a 3-2 victory over Atlanta on April 30.

The Twins will counter with Woods Richardson, who owns a 2.45 ERA in three appearances after beginning the season at Triple-A St. Paul. He last pitched on April 30, allowing two runs (one earned) in 3.2 innings in a 6-5 win over the White Sox.

Game 2

  • Tuesday, 7:40 p.m. ET
  • Emerson Hancock vs Bailey Ober

Hancock is 3-3 with a 4.75 ERA. A victim of poor luck in his last start, he was charged with five runs (one earned) over 3.2 innings in a 5-2 loss to Atlanta last Wednesday. He had gone six innings in each of his previous three appearances.

He will face Ober, who is 3-1 with a 4.55 ERA. The 6-foot-9 right-hander has won his last three starts, allowing seven runs over 19.1 innings with 17 strikeouts and just four walks.

Game 3

  • Wednesday, 7:40 p.m. ET
  • George Kirby vs Chris Paddack

Kirby underwent an MRI on his right knee following his last appearance. However, Mariners manager Scott Servais is optimistic that Kirby won’t miss any time. He got pulled from Friday’s outing against Houston after just 88 pitches over concerns about his health. On the season, Kirby is 3-2 with a 3.76 ERA.

Paddack, meanwhile, is 3-1 with a 4.78 ERA. He tossed six shutout innings with six strikeouts in his last start, a 5-2 victory over Boston on Friday. With 32 innings, the 28-year-old right-hander has already surpassed his workload from the previous two seasons combined (27.1 innings) following Tommy John surgery.

Game 4

  • Thursday, 1:10 p.m. ET
  • Logan Gilbert vs Pablo Lopez

Gilbert has gotten off to a spectacular start, carrying a 1.69 ERA and 0.79 WHIP through seven appearances. He blanked Houston for eight innings while allowing only two hits in a 5-0 win on May 4.  Thanks to this hot start, his AL Cy Young odds climbed as high as +1000.

Lopez is also in the mix, priced at +1200 after a strong start against Boston. He allowed only one run over six innings while striking out eight in a 3-1 win on Saturday. That lowered his ERA to 4.30 to go with his 3-2 record and 1.04 WHIP.

For the best MLB bets today, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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