Mariners vs Twins Preview: Can Seattle Stay Above .500?

Poor Series Against Minnesota Could Force Seattle to Sell

The Seattle Mariners are only 4.5 games out of the final wild card in the American League heading into Monday’s matchup against the Minnesota Twins. However, the Mariners are still behind six teams while fighting for three Wild Card spots.

The Mariners are currently over .500. However, if they struggle against the Twins in this series, the Mariners could explore selling at the Trade Deadline.

On the other hand, the Twins are leading the AL Central with a 53-49 record. The AL Central has been the worst division in baseball, and the Twins have taken advantage of that. Minnesota’s currently far from a playoff contender. But just like the Mariners, this series could help the Twins decide to make a push for better players by the deadline.

Take a look at our Mariners vs Twins preview for the upcoming series. There’s a lot at stake!

Twins logo Minnesota’s Sweep

The Minnesota Twins just defeated the Chicago White Sox in three straight games. Minnesota’s swept a divisional opponent and are now three games ahead in the AL Central standings. Minnesota’s the favorite to win the AL Central and lead all AL Central teams in the MLB Power Rankings.

However, the Twins also won two of their three games by one run at home. They were able to close out tight games but didn’t blow the White Sox out of the water, either.

Mariners logo Are the Mariners a .500 Team?

The Mariners have a +28 run differential heading into their series against the Twins. Those are useful MLB stats to recognize whether a team is fraudulent or good. So they’ve been better than their record. However, the offense has struggled recently against right-handed pitching. The typical lineup against righties has hit a .163 ISO and wOBA of .286 against righties in the last 30 days.

The Mariners will face three righties against the Twins in this series. That doesn’t seem too appealing.

Here’s a look at the full three-game Mariners vs Twins preview and my MLB predictions for each game.

⚾ Game 1 ⚾

Luis Castillo vs. Kenta Maeda
Monday, 7:40 p.m. ET

Luis Castillo will get the start for the Twins tonight. He’s got a 6-7 record but is holding a 3.04 ERA. Castillo has given up a lot of fly balls to lefties in the last month and isn’t earning a high rate of strikeouts against righties. But overall, he’s kept walking down and has limited line drives to both sides of the plate.

Meanwhile, the Twins’ usual lineup will have four lefties and five righties against righties. The Twins have hit a .212 ISO and wOBA of .361 with that lineup against righties over the last 30 days. However, they’ve also struck out 26.3% of the time in the previous month against righties as a projected lineup.

The Twins will send out Kenta Maeda for the opening game of the series. Maeda has struck out 35.3% of his last 102 batters and has held teams to a .110 ISO and wOBA of .256 the previous month.

Minnesota has the more impactful lineup and will have a little bit more of a pitching edge. However, the sportsbooks don’t see it that way. The Mariners are favorites, on the road, with a -120 price tag. The Twins can be bought at +100.

The total is currently at 7.5, with the over-juiced to -115.

I see value in the first game with the Twins at home.

⚾ Game 2 ⚾

George Kirby vs. Pablo Lopez
Tuesday, 7:40 p.m. ET

In the second game of the series, George Kirby will take the ball for the Mariners. Kirby has been tremendous for the Mariners, holding a 3.23 ERA. The right-hander has allowed a higher ISO and wOBA to lefties over the last month. But like Castillo, he’s limited walks very well and has earned 25% of strikeouts against lefties in the previous month.

Kirby will take on Pablo Lopez, who has also been tremendous. Lopez has struck out nearly 32% of batters in the last 30 days, holding teams to a .143 ISO and wOBA of .293.

My Mariners vs Twins preview take is that the Under will likely be the play on Tuesday.

⚾ Game 3 ⚾

Bryce Miller vs. Joe Ryan
Wednesday, 1:10 p.m. ET

In the final game of the series, Bryce Miller will take the hill. He’s another right-hander who has limited teams to a .149 ISO and wOBA of .300 in the last 30 days. Those are above-average numbers, and he’s also striking out 34.3% of righties in the previous 30 days.

Meanwhile, Miller will face off against Joe Ryan in a potential rubber match. Ryan has earned 36% of strikeouts over the last 30 days, but he’s also allowed a .365 ISO and wOBA of .438 to his previous 114 batters. It’s either a hard-hit ball against Ryan or a strikeout.

The Mariners have gotten power from J.P. Crawford, Eugenio Suarez, and Mike Ford against righties, to name a few.

Seattle could sneak a win in Game 3 of the series.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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