Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Odds Faves & Sleepers
Chandler Smith Retains Title in the Texas Motor Speedway
The Xfinity Series saw a new winner from the regular grid last week in Martinsville. Aric Almirola dominated most of the race, winning Stage One and leading the most laps en route to victory. Chandler Smith kept his championship lead, though, and comes to Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth as the favorite in the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 odds.
Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Odds: Favorites for victory
Chandler Smith (+300)
Smith kept the lead in the Xfinity NASCAR standings thanks to third place in Martinsville. It marked his sixth top-five finish out of seven races this season. No other driver can match his perfect run of top-eight finishes.
He’s the favorite thanks to that strong run to start the season, plus a good result in his first Xfinity Series race at Texas Motor Speedway (fourth). He also has run well at similar tracks, including a pole position and three top-five finishes at Las Vegas. He’s a near-lock for a top five at least.
Justin Allgaier (+450)
Allgaier got back on track in Martinsville with his first top-five result of the season and won Stage Two in the process. That result puts him fifth in the standings ahead of this weekend.
He’s also raced well at Texas recently. In his last seven events at the track, he’s notched five top-five results. He led the most laps in two of those races. Last year, it took until Charlotte – a similar track to Fort Worth – to get his first win of the season. That could happen again here.
Cole Custer (+500)
Custer’s still yet to win in 2024 but, after his fifth consecutive top-10 result in Martinsville, sits second in the standings. Luckily, he’s coming to a track he’s won at before this weekend.
In seven career Xfinity events at Texas Motor Speedway, Custer’s finished in the top 10 all but once. His win in 2018 makes him one of the few returning winners this weekend. He raced well at a similar track in 2024, notching a pole position and second place in Las Vegas.
Ryan Truex (+750)
This weekend marks Truex’s third NASCAR Xfinity race of the season. In his first two races, he finished 21st in Daytona and ninth in Atlanta. It’s surprising to see him so high in the odds; he’s only raced five Xfinity events in Fort Worth in his career. Those five races saw him finish 32nd, 20th, 13th, 33rd, and sixth. It’d be a surprise to see him in victory lane come Saturday.
Austin Hill (+800)
Hill’s hot start to 2024 halted in Martinsville thanks to a crash during the restart in Stage Two. It marked his first result outside of the top eight this season.
He’s had mixed results in Fort Worth in his Xfinity career. His fifth- and second-place finishes in 2022’s events there were a high point. He finished seventh in the last Xfinity race during last year’s playoffs.
His pace at similar tracks is impressive, including a win in Las Vegas and top-five results in Charlotte and Kansas since the start of 2023.
Sleeper options
Riley Herbst (+1000)
Herbst is up to sixth in the standings despite one of his worst results in Martinsville. He’s finished outside the top 20 three times in 2024 compared to two top-10 results.
This week could see him bounce back. He’s raced well at Las Vegas, a similar track to Texas Motor Speedway, including fifth earlier this season and a win last year in the playoffs. He also finished fifth in Fort Worth in 2022.
Sam Mayer (+1200)
Mayer earned his best result of the year in Martinsville with second place behind Almirola. The JR Motorsports driver doesn’t have a good track record in Fort Worth; his best result was third in the first race there in 2022. Backing him this weekend is more of a momentum play based on his strong result last week.
Sammy Smith (+1600)
The other Smith on this list has banked five top-10 results in 2024. Martinsville saw his best finish of the year with seventh. He’s run just one full season in the series but Texas Motor Speedway was one of his better events on the NASCAR Xfinity schedule. He finished third in the playoff race there last season. At +1600, he’d offer a great return for a flyer of a bet.
Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Odds: Predictions
It could be a close fight in Fort Worth this week after two races in a row dominated by Almirola and Chandler Smith. The former isn’t competing and the latter has little experience at this venue.
Of the favorites, Custer looks like the best bet thanks to his previous win and consistency at Texas Motor Speedway. If his payout isn’t good enough, look for Sammy Smith to break through for the first time this season.
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