NASCAR Toyota Owners 400 Picks: Favorites and sleepers in Richmond
A new name leads the NASCAR standings and the odds this week
For the first time in 2024, a NASCAR Cup Series driver won a race from pole position. William Byron earned his second win of the season at Circuit of the Americas after taking pole position and leading 42 of the 68 laps.
His win keeps him in the top 10 of the standings, which are now led by Martin Truex Jr. following the Joe Gibbs Racing driver’s 10th-place result. This week, the grid heads back to ovals at the Richmond Raceway, with a few drivers standing out as NASCAR Toyota Owners 400 Picks.
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NASCAR Toyota Owners 400 Picks:Favorites in Richmond
Christopher Bell (+425)
Bell has the shortest NASCAR odds for victory for the first time this season. He caught Byron in the closing laps last weekend and kept things close. The winning margin was less than one second by the chequered flag. He won Stage One, and his second-place finish is behind only his win in Phoenix for best of the year.
He’s never won in Richmond, but it’s one of his best tracks on the NASCAR schedule. Seven career events there have yielded five top-six results. He’s been the best driver in the field over the last three races. A combination of track record and momentum makes him a worthy favorite for victory.
Denny Hamlin (+450)
Hamlin followed his win in Bristol with 14th last week and a Stage Two victory. He’s up to fourth in the NASCAR leaderboard behind only Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs, and defending champion Ryan Blaney. That could change this week because Richmond is one of Hamlin’s best tracks on the calendar.
He has four career wins at Richmond, the second-most in the field, and an incredible 18 top-five finishes in 34 races. Only Kyle Busch and Bell have a better average finish at the circuit than Hamlin. After a strong showing last week, he’ll be fighting near the front again.
Martin Truex Jr. (+600)
The new NASCAR points leader took the top spot after finishing in the top 10 for the fourth time in a row. He’s the only driver on the grid to finish 15th or better in every race this season but he’s yet to win a race in 2024.
Along with his teammate Hamlin, Truex Jr.’s been one of the best drivers in Richmond in recent memory. He’s won three of the last 10 events there and has scored more points at the track in that timeframe than any other Cup Series driver. His last win came in 2021 but he’s consistently finished in the top 10.
Ty Gibbs (+850)
Another week saw another strong result for the sophomore driver. Gibbs’ third-place finish at Circuit of the Americas was his third top-five finish this season. Since Atlanta, he’s been the most consistent driver in the field, finishing in the top 10 in each of the last five NASCAR races. No other driver can match that consistency.
Gibbs won in Richmond from pole position in the Xfinity event in 2022. In 2021, he managed seventh but led the most laps in that Xfinity event. Last year, he finished ninth and 15th in the two Richmond races. He’s improved in nearly every race compared to last year so far, and that first Cup Series win feels close.
Kyle Larson (+900)
A 17th-place result last week sees Larson drop from the top of the points standings to fifth but just 15 points behind Truex Jr. He’s already banked a win thanks to his dominant result in Phoenix to qualify for the playoffs, but he could be in for another victory this weekend.
He’s won twice in Richmond in 18 events there but his NASCAR qualifying results stand out compared to the rest of the field. His average starting position (8.9) is the best among active drivers. A win could be a big ask with this many favorites, but he’ll likely be in the top 10 again.
William Byron (+900)
Two wins in the first six races have Byron in great shape for the season early on. For the second season in a row, he’s the first driver to win multiple races.
Richmond isn’t a bogey track for Byron, but it’s not one of his best. He’s always qualified well and started in the top 10 seven times in 11 career races, but he has just two top-10 finishes in those contests. Betting on him to buck history with this recent momentum could be a big ask.
Sleepers
Brad Keselowski (+1100)
Keselowski’s had an inconsistent start to 2024. Top five results in Phoenix and Bristol are brought down by three finishes outside the top 30, including last week in Austin.
He’s one of the better drivers in Richmond recently, though, with six top-10 results in the last 10 races, including one win. Last time out in Richmond, he led 102 laps and finished sixth. He’s been inconsistent but could surprise this weekend.
Kyle Busch (+1200)
Few drivers have been as consistent as Busch in Richmond lately. Over the last 10 races, only Truex Jr. and Hamlin have a better average finish. He’s finished in the top 10 in nine of those 10 events, including one win.
Like Keselowski, he’s had an inconsistent start to 2024. Busch finished 12th in Daytona and third in Atlanta before failing to crack the top 20 over the next three races. Last time out, he took ninth in Austin, and he could have another solid finish this week.
Chase Elliott (+1600)
Elliott continued his solid-but-not-great start to 2024 in Austin. He finished 16th, his second-lowest result of the season, but remains ninth in the Cup Series championship behind four other top-15 finishes.
Elliott hasn’t won in Richmond before but has a good track record with four top-five finishes in his last nine races there. It’s one of his better races on the NASCAR schedule.
NASCAR Toyota Owners 400 Picks: NASCAR predictions in Richmond
The return to oval tracks comes at one of the fan favorites on the schedule. Richmond brings the action for the Cup Series and this weekend likely won’t be any different.
Of the favorites, Hamlin looks like the safest pick. If you want a better payout, go with Truex Jr. Of the sleepers, go with Busch. His recent track record in Richmond is too good to ignore, and Rowdy could get back on track for the season with a win.
For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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