Daytona 500 winner Byron leads odds for Xfinity Series Race at Phoenix

The first three races of the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series have been a repeat of 2023. Austin Hill and John Hunter Nemechek have won the three events, Hill with two victories and Nemechek with one. Last year that changed in round four in Phoenix. This year, the Xfinity Series Race at Phoenix odds point to a new winner in Phoenix once again.

Group of favorites

• William Byron (+300)

Byron’s already had a successful 2024 in the Cup Series, with a playoff spot secured thanks to his win in the Daytona 500. He’s currently fourth in the standings in that series behind 17th- and 10th-place finishes in Atlanta and Las Vegas, respectively.

Byron’s track record in Phoenix is excellent. He won the spring Cup Series race and took fourth in the season finale there last year. He also won his previous Xfinity Series race there, with a victory in the fall 2017 race. You can feel more confident in him getting the win than anyone else on the Xfinity Series grid this week.

• Cole Custer (+600)

Custer took pole position in Las Vegas and finished second behind Nemechek last week in the race. The defending champion’s now fifth in the standings and returns to the track where he won the title last year. Custer’s win in Phoenix secured his first Xfinity Series title and the first for Stewart-Haas Racing.

That result was a step up from Custer’s NASCAR Xfinity results in Phoenix historically. In his prior seven Xfinity events there, Custer finished in the top 10 five times, including two top-five results. His result in Las Vegas gives him good momentum this week, and he could notch multiple Xfinity wins at the same track for just the second time in his career.

• Justin Allgaier (+600)

Allgaier bounced back from a poor result in Atlanta to finish 10th in Las Vegas. Luckily, his improvement will likely continue this week in Phoenix. It’s one of his better tracks on the NASCAR scheduleby average finish, especially in recent years.

Since 2019, Allgaier’s finished in the top 10 seven times in 10 races, including a win that year. Last year, he started second in this event before his race ended early because of a crash. He still led 20 laps and will be a threat to win this week.

• John Hunter Nemechek (+600)

Nemechek has never won in Phoenix at any level of his NASCAR career. He’s come relatively close multiple times, with four top-six finishes in the Xfinity Series. But he’s raced very well at similar tracks like Richmond and Loudon, with second place and a win, respectively, last year. Could he flip the script from last year and make it two in a row in the Xfinity Series?

• Chandler Smith (+650)

Smith’s in just his second year in the Xfinity Series but is racing well, with three top-five finishes in a row to start the season. Only championship leader Austin Hill can match that. Last week in Las Vegas, he won Stages One and Two but ultimately finished third behind Nemechek and Custer.

Phoenix could be a similar story. His track record there is very good, with wins in both the ARCA Menards and NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series. In five total NASCAR Xfinity races across those two categories, Smith never finished lower than third.

Last year, he finished fifth in this event and won his first Xfinity race on a similar track (Richmond). He’s in a great spot to get his second career win this week.

• Sammy Smith (+800)

The same can be said for the other second-year driver with the last name Smith. Sammy Smith won this event and led the most laps last year, becoming the youngest race winner in series history. He followed that up with ninth place in the season finale in Phoenix last year as well. His track record before the Xfinity series is good, too, with a win and two third-place finishes in the ARCA Menards Series.

• Sheldon Creed (+800)

Creed had a pair of top-three results in Phoenix last year, including second in the season finale. That was the best average for a track he raced twice in 2023. He’s still yet to get that elusive first win in the Xfinity Series and finished second for the eighth time in just over two full years of racing.

He had his most NASCAR wins in the Camping World Truck Series at Gateway, a similar track to Phoenix. He could surprise and finally break through this weekend.

Sleepers for victory

• Riley Herbst (+1000)

At +1000, he’s hardly a sleeper, but Herbst had some of his best results last year at this track. He finished fourth or higher eight times in 2023 — including twice at Phoenix. That continues a theme throughout his Xfinity career of solid results there. From 2020 through 2022, he finished outside the top 10 just twice in six races. The favorites are solid, but Herbst offers a similar upside with a better payout.

• Austin Hill (+1400)

Hill can’t win three out of four to start the season. Maybe. But he finished seventh in both Phoenix races last season and is off to a torrid start in 2024. Momentum is on his side at nearly twice the payout of the favorites.

Xfinity Series Race at Phoenix: Picks for Saturday’s race

Phoenix marks a departure from the fast speedways of the start of the year to a flat-track oval. Now, teams and drivers can get into the thick of the schedule and will set the tone for the regular season.

Of the favorites this weekend, Byron seems too strong to pass up. He’s already off to a hot start in the Cup Series and has a great track record in Phoenix. If his payout is too low among the favorites, look for Chandler Smith to get the win. Of the sleepers, Herbst looks like a solid choice.

For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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