The LiUNA Odds: Favorites, sleepers, and picks for the Xfinity Series’ Las Vegas
Austin Hill's swept the races to start with a commanding championship lead already
Two NASCAR races into the 2024 Xfinity Series season and Austin Hill’s already set the tone. The Kaulig Racing driver won both Daytona and Atlanta, as he did in 2023 to take an early lead. This week brings the Xfinity Series to Las Vegas Motor Speedway – another place Hill won in 2023. But a different title challenger from last season leads the way in The LiUNA Odds this week.
Favorites for victory
John Hunter Nemechek (+340)
Nemechek won seven Xfinity races in 2023 and finished second to Riley Herbst in the most recent Xfinity event at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He’s racing in the Xfinity Series this week for the third event in a row. The first two races saw mixed results; Daytona saw him finish seventh, but he finished fourth laps down in Atlanta.
Nemechek’s won in Las Vegas before in the Craftsman Truck Series (2021) and has come close in the Xfinity Series. He’s finished in the top 10 four times in six races, including two second-place results. A win could be tough considering his recent form, but he’s likely to finish in or near the top five.
Cole Custer (+500)
The defending Xfinity Series champion’s been okay to start 2024. Thirteenth in Daytona and 16th in Atlanta have him 12th in the Xfinity NASCAR standings. His track record in Las Vegas is solid, though. He’s finished in the top 10 five times in seven career Xfinity events there. Most recently, he took third place in the Xfinity playoff race last fall.
His consecutive mid-teens finishes aren’t the best start to the year. A bounce-back race would be a welcome sight, and a solid result in Las Vegas would be easy to imagine.
Justin Allgaier (+500)
Allgaier’s tied with Custer on points this season with very different results over the first two races. His eighth place at Daytona preceded 28th in Atlanta.
Las Vegas has been good but not great to Allgaier in his Xfinity career. He’s finished in the top six in all but one of his last seven races there, including second place at this event last year. Could this finally be the race he breaks through?
Austin Hill (+750)
Hill’s swept the NASCAR Xfinity schedule in 2024 despite not dominating either race. He led just two laps last week in Atlanta and nine the week before in Daytona. He did win Stage Two in the latter.
He did win this race last season and will likely keep his championship lead after a solid result this weekend. The last time an Xfinity driver won three races in a row was Noah Gragson in 2022.
Outside of a win in Las Vegas at this event last year, he’s notched a pair of top-10 results in the previous four races. He’s going to race well, but a win could be a tall task.
Chandler Smith (+800)
Smith’s building on a solid rookie campaign with multiple top-five results to start 2024. Fifth in Daytona and second in Atlanta have him up to fourth in the Xfinity standings early on.
His track record in Las Vegas is good, considering his short career so far. He finished third in this event last year after leading the most laps and fourth in the playoff race there.
In 2022, he won the Craftsman Truck race there and led the most laps. Joe Gibbs Racing only won one Xfinity race at Las Vegas in the last nine events there. Smith could break make it two in 10.
Riley Herbst (+800)
Herbst’s NASCAR betting odds are the best of the season, thanks to his recent success in Las Vegas. He won his first Xfinity career race in the playoffs last year after failing to crack the top five in any race there prior. He’s third in the Xfinity standings to start this year, after sixth in Daytona and 15th in Atlanta.
His victory there is Joe Gibbs Racing’s sole win there since 2019. Another victory there could make him a serious championship threat this season.
Sleepers for the win
Jesse Love (+1000)
The rookie Love’s arguably been the best driver on the Xfinity grid this season. He’s fifth in the championship thanks to finishing 20th in Daytona and 12th in Atlanta. But he’s qualified on pole, led the most laps, and won Stage One in both events. In Atlanta, he won Stage Two as well. Love’s led two-thirds of all laps in the Xfinity Series this season so far.
It’s an understatement to say he has limited running at Las Vegas. His three ARCA Menards Series West races there saw him finish second, third, and 13th in 2020 and 2021. But at some point, he has to break through for a win.
A.J. Allmendinger (+1200)
Allmendinger’s back in the Xfinity Series full-time in 2024 and is off to a solid start with 10th in Daytona and 13th in Atlanta. He’s raced well in Las Vegas at this level before, earning pole position for his last two Xfinity races there. In 2021, he won this event from 10th on the grid. For these odds, he’s a good sleeper pick.
Shane van Gisbergen (+2000)
Like Love, van Gisbergen’s a rookie making a good start to 2024. His 12th place in Daytona and third in Atlanta have him up to ninth in the championship standings.
He doesn’t have a track record at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but he’s raced well enough to start to be worth a wild card. At more than double the payout of most of the favorites, he could be worth the payout.
The LiUNA Odds: Picks for Saturday’s race
Hill’s been the story of the season so far, but the odds point to a change in Las Vegas. We’ll go with a change in winner for this week among the favorites and pick Smith to break Hill’s lock on the winner’s circle. Of the sleepers, Allmendinger has the track record to edge out Love for the pick there.
For NASCAR news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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