2024 Shriners Children 500 Odds: Sleepers and Predictions

A new week, a new championship leader in the NASCAR Cup Series. Kyle Larson held Tyler Reddick off in the closing part of the race in Las Vegas to take his first win of 2024. Larson won Stages One and Two and led the most laps to push himself to the top of the standings. This week, the grid heads to its first short track of the season in Phoenix. Unsurprisingly, Larson’s on top of the 2024 Shriners Children 500 Odds this week.

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Phoenix favorites

• Kyle Larson (+500)

Larson rebounded from getting caught out in Atlanta to get his best win since Las Vegas last season. He’s won a race much sooner than in 2023, when it took him until race seven to get a victory. Now he’s in a much better spot to start with a playoff spot sealed.

Larson’s solid track record in Phoenix includes eight top-five finishes in 19 career races. He took pole in this race last season en route to a fourth-place finish when he led the most laps. He’s finished outside of the top 10 just once since 2018. He’ll be near the front and, with his momentum, could stay at the top of the NASCAR point standings.

• Ryan Blaney (+600)

Blaney’s third-place finish in Las Vegas continues his strong start to 2024 following a second-place result in Atlanta. He’s raced well in recent years in Phoenix. His second-place result in the season finale last year sealed his first Cup Series title. It was also his third consecutive second-place result. He’s one of the best qualifiers on the grid in Phoenix with an average of sixth place on the starting grid. He could break through and catch Larson in the standings.

• WIlliam Byron (+650)

Following his exciting win in Daytona, Byron’s had some solid results, including 10th last time out in Las Vegas. He has an okay track record in Phoenix; he won this event last season from third on the starting grid.

That result aside, Byron has just one more top-five finish in his other 11 career races. He won twice in the first four races last season. It’d be a surprise to see him do that again this year with a win this week in Phoenix.

• Denny Hamlin (+850)

No active driver on the grid can match Hamlin’s average NASCAR results in Phoenix. Thirty-seven career races there have yielded 16 top-five finishes, the most of any active driver. His last win there came in the penultimate round of the 2019 season. Since then, he’s finished in the top five just three times.

His historic pace is good in Phoenix but not great more recently. He had his best season result so far in Las Vegas finishing eighth.

• Ross Chastain (+850)

Chastain’s one of the betting favorites for the first time this season. Seventh in Atlanta and fourth in Las Vegas is a good string of results early on in the NASCAR schedule. It’s not too surprising to see him this high up the odds, though, considering he won the last event at this track from eighth on the grid.

That was his third top-three result in the last four races. He’s consistently finished better than he’s started at Phoenix and could fight up the field for a good result once again this week.

Sleeper picks worth considering

• Martin Truex Jr. (+1200)

Truex Jr. won this race in 2021 from fifth on the grid. Last time out in Phoenix, he started second and finished sixth. It’s been a solid start to the season for last year’s regular season champion. He’s finished 15th or better in all three races so far in 2024 just as he did in 2023. Only Chase Elliott can match that on the Cup Series grid this season.

Truex Jr.’s track record at Loudon, a similar track to Phoenix, is one of the best in his career. He could surprise and establish himself as a threat again in 2024 early on.

• Joey Logano (+1400)

Logano’s had a rough start to 2024. Two pole positions at Daytona and Las Vegas haven’t led to much success and have been overshadowed by off-track drama. Using a webbed glove in Atlanta led to a $10,000 fine. His ninth place last week from pole position is his best result so far.

Luckily, he’s one of the better drivers on the grid in Phoenix. His three victories are tied for the most on the Cup Series grid with Kyle Busch. He won this race in 2020 and won the season finale there in 2022 from pole. This could be the race he follows through on a good qualifying result.

• Chase Elliott (+1600)

Elliott’s been one of the more consistent drivers to start 2024. Like Truex Jr., he’s finished no lower than 15th through the first three races. His 12th-place finish last week is his best so far as he sits seventh in the NASCAR championship standings.

Elliott won in Phoenix to clinch the 2020 Cup Series title from pole position. He’s struggled to have the same success since – two top-five finishes in the last five races – but missed this event last year. He could continue his bounce-back campaign with a great result here.

2024 Shriners Children 500 Odds: Race predictions

The Cup Series leaves the longer, high-speed speedways of the first few events behind for a flat-track tri-oval this week. It’s a different challenge and could see more excitement at the front like we’ve seen through the first three NASCAR races.

Of the favorites for the win, Blaney looks like the safest bet for a win. He’s racing well to start 2024 and has a track record of finishing very well in recent races in Phoenix. Of the sleepers, look for Logano to finally break through. Eventually his qualifying pace has to say off and Phoenix looks like a great place for that to happen.

For NASCAR betting news, NASCAR odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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