2024 Focused Health 250 Odds: Larson leads favorites in Austin

The Xfinity Series sees its first of four road course events this weekend.

A new week sees a new championship leader in the Xfinity Series. Chandler Smith holds a slight edge over Austin Hill thanks to his win in Phoenix last week. After leading the most laps and winning stage one, Smith takes the lead by one point in the standings.

Smith leads as the grid heads to Austin, Texas, for the first road course event of the year at the Circuit of the Americas. Here’s how the 2024 Focused Health 250 Odds look for Saturday’s race.

2024 Focused Health 250 Odds: Cup Series leader tops favorites group

  • Kyle Larson (+250)

Larson’s competing in both the Xfinity and Cup Series races this weekend. He doesn’t lead the NASCAR odds for the Cup Series race but takes the title of favorite here. Larson’s never won an event at this track; his best result was second in the Cup Series race in 2021. Since then, he’s never finished inside the top 10.

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His track record at road courses is good, though, including two wins at Watkins Glen and a win at the Charlotte Roval in 2021. He’s won two of his last four Xfinity Series races—including Watkins Glen in 2022—and finished third from pole position last year in Sonoma. He’ll be a threat to win once again.

  • AJ Allmendinger (+300)

Another driver competing in both races this weekend, Allmendinger, has the best track record at this circuit of anyone on the Xfinity Series grid. He finished second in this event in 2021 before winning in 2022 and 2023.

During his last full Xfinity Series season in 2022, Allmendinger won five races, four of which were at road courses. Those wins were in Austin, Portland, the Indianapolis road course, and the Charlotte Roval.

He’s started from pole position in his last two Xfinity races at road courses but didn’t win either event. This could change this week at one of his best tracks on the NASCAR Xfinity schedule.

  • Ty Gibbs (+375)

Continuing the theme among the favorites, Gibbs is racing both the Xfinity and Cup Series events at Circuit of the Americas this weekend.

Half of his eight Xfinity events last season were at road courses, including a third-place finish in Austin. He won on the Indianapolis road course and led the most laps a week before earning pole position at Watkins Glen.

Gibbs enjoyed success at Road America (arguably the most similar track to this weekend’s race) in his Xfinity career. He started on pole in 2021 and won in 2022. He’s an excellent threat to win this weekend.

  • Shane van Gisbergen (+450)

van Gisbergen’s off to a solid start in his rookie season. Third in Atlanta and sixth in Phoenix are early highlights from the former Supercars champion.

This is his first proper road course event of his NASCAR career. Last year, he was the best story of the Cup Series season with a win on debut in the streets of Chicago. Later, he finished 10th at the Indianapolis road course.

van Gisbergen has years of experience driving courses like Circuit of the Americas. With his background and early success, he’s got a great chance to win his first Xfinity race this weekend.

Sleeper picks this weekend

  • Sam Mayer (+1200)

Mayer’s off to a rough start in 2024, with just one top-12 finish in the first four races. The last time he had a rough spell like this was at the end of the regular season and into the beginning of the Xfinity Series playoffs last season. His response? A win from pole position and leading the most laps at the Charlotte Roval.

That win in Charlotte continued Mayer’s trend of strong road course NASCAR Xfinity results in 2023. He won there as well as Road American and Watkins Glen.

He finished seventh in this event last year and notched third in Portland. His road course track record holds up to some of the favorites and should be considered a challenger for the win.

  • Sheldon Creed (+1200)

Creed’s raced well in Austin before, with consecutive top-10 finishes in 2022 and 2023. He led 16 laps in the latter event. Last season, he led the most laps from pole position and won Stage One in Portland before ultimately finishing seventh.

His second-place finish in Watkins Glen a month and a half later proved it wasn’t a fluke. Creed’s come close multiple times to getting his first Xfinity win, and this weekend could see him break through.

  • Cole Custer (+1800)

Two of the defending Xfinity Series champion’s three wins last season came at Portland’s road course and Chicago’s street course.

He also had top-10 results in Sonoma, the Indianapolis road course, Watkins Glen, and the Charlotte Roval. Austin was the outlier road course without a top result for Custer. With that track record, he’s a great high-payout play for victory.

2024 Focused Health 250 Odds: Predictions for Saturday’s race

The Circuit of the Americas event is one of the newer stops on the Xfinity Series calendar but an exciting one. The grid takes a break from ovals for a weekend to compete in one of two NASCAR races in Texas this year.

Of the favorites, Allmendinger’s too good to pass up for a third consecutive win at this event. If his odds aren’t long enough, look for van Gisbergen to pull the surprise win.

Of the sleepers, Mayer’s got the track record to compete for victory. We like a top-five finishing group of Allmendinger (-210), Gibbs (-180), van Gisbergen (-130), Custer (+275), and Larson (-280).

For NASCAR news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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