Cup Series Cook Out Southern 500: Playoffs Begin at Martinsville

After 26 NASCAR races across six months, the NASCAR Cup Series regular season has finally come to a close. Sixteen drivers now face off for the chance to win the 2023 Cup Series championship. The playoffs begin this week with a stop at Martinsville for the Cup Series Cook Out Southern 500. It’s the second stop this year at Darlington. Here’s how the odds look for the first race in the round of 16.

Regular season champion Truex Jr. leads the way

Thanks to a standout regular season of remarkable consistency, Martin Truex Jr. took home his second regular season Cup Series title. He last did that in 2017 and also went on to win the championship.

He leads the odds for victory this week at +500. In the earlier stop in Martinsville this season, Truex Jr. took pole position, won stage 1, and led the most laps. His luck ran out during stage 2 when he spun out after contact with Ross Chastain. He’d work his way back to fourth before crashing out for good. He won this race back in 2016 and might have had a better shot at the win earlier this year had it been for better luck. He’ll likely be up near the front once again.

Kyle Larson’s next in odds at +600. Larson’s been one of the NASCAR favorites, if not the favorite, at most races this year. Though he hasn’t won at Martinsville before, he’s one of the best drivers at the track, with an average finish of 10th in 11 races.

Only Denny Hamlin has a better career average finish. He starts the playoffs in sixth and could use this race to gain position earlier than later. The Darlington NASCAR weekend schedule also sees him racing in the Xfinity Series, which could make for a good warmup ahead of Sunday’s race.

Current points leader William Byron and Hamlin are tied at +800. Byron leads the championship standings to start the Round of 16 thanks to his Cup Series-best five wins during the regular season, including the race at Darlington in May.

That win was an outlier for Byron. In his prior nine races at Darlington, he managed just two top-five results: fifth in 2020 and fourth in 2021. Though he’s been in arguably the best form of his career in 2023, a win here would be another surprise.

By contrast, Hamlin is far and away the best Cup Series driver at Darlington by career numbers. Hamlin’s finished each of the 22 races he’s entered at Darlington. He’s won four of them, the most wins at the track among active drivers. He won this event in 2021 but has been inconsistent there recently.

Wins in 2020 and 2021 have been balanced out by three finishes outside of the top 10: 13th in this event in 2020, 21st in the spring race last year, and 12th in the spring race this year. Asserting himself with a win to begin the round of 16 would go a long way toward his title hopes.

Chastain rounds out the group of NASCAR betting favorites at +900. This is an odd line, given his poor performances in Darlington historically. He’s managed just one top-five finish in eight career races there. His average career finish (22nd) at Darlington puts him ahead of only Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (23rd) and Michael McDowell (26th) among playoff racers. A win this weekend would be a huge surprise.

Longer odds for victory at the Cup Series Cook Out Southern 500

Darlington’s one of Tyler Reddick’s best ovals on the Cup Series schedule. Eight career races there have included two top-five results, including third here last year. He struggled in the first Darlington event this season (22nd from ninth on the grid), so he’ll be looking to improve this time out. At +1400, he’s got a good shot to be near the front again.

Brad Keselowski has just one career win at Darlington (this event in 2018) but is one of the more consistent drivers there. Nineteen races have yielded 10 top-10 results. Only Hamlin and Larson have a better average finish in their careers here. He finished fourth here in May. At +1600, he’s a solid choice with a good payout.

Kevin Harvick’s at +1600 as well. His three career wins at Darlington trail only Hamlin among active drivers. Two of those wins came in 2020, including at this event.

Since that win three years ago, he’s just once finished outside the top six. Harvick couldn’t manage a win at all during the 2023 regular season. Could he change that in the playoffs of his final year?

Erik Jones (+3300) has surprisingly long odds, given his two wins at this event. Victories in 2019 and 2022 give him one of the best track records at Darlington among active Cup Series drivers. Outside of those two wins, he’s made the top 10 five other times.

Greg Biffle was the last driver to win consecutive Southern 500 events in 2005 and 2006. We’ll see if Jones can repeat his prior success at a different team, given his 25th-place finish in the spring Darlington race. But at these odds, it’d be a sizeable payout.

Cup Series Cook Out Southern 500 picks

Sixteen drivers are set to start the playoffs, and many have a good shot at a win this Sunday. But of the favorites, it’s hard to argue against Hamlin. He kept pace with Truex Jr. throughout the regular season to stay near the top of the NASCAR standings. A win here sets the stage for a strong playoffs.

Of the longer odds, look to Keselowski or Harvick, with the latter being the stronger candidate. It’s Harvick’s final year in the Cup Series. He came close to a win in the spring race, and he can do one better to open the final playoffs of his final season.

For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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