NASCAR Series Crayon 301 Odds: Bell Favored to Defend Title
This week there's a new Cup Series championship leader as the series heads north to New Hampshire
Just seven races are left in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, starting this week in New Hampshire. The only 301-lap race of the calendar comes after William Byron took his fourth win of 2023 and the championship lead with it. Though he’s the new driver on top, he doesn’t lead the NASCAR Series Crayon 301 odds. That goes to defending winner Christopher Bell.
Rain shortened the Quaker State 400 in Atlanta last weekend to just 185 laps instead of the planned 260. Byron returned to the top after an early spin and losing a lap thanks to seven total caution periods. He took the lead on lap 167 from AJ Allmendinger. When organizers red-flagged the race as rain fell on lap 185, Byron was named the winner.
This week is a change from recent races. The series’ first street course in Chicago and reconfigured tri-oval in Atlanta give way to familiar tight corners in Loudon. Drivers and teams are used to the track’s challenges. Defending winner Bell leads the odds but he’s not far ahead of many other challengers.
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Bell leads the group of favorites
Bell (+550) led the final 42 laps of last year’s race en route to victory after passing Chase Elliott for the lead. It came a year after his second-place finish from ninth on the grid in 2021. This time, he’s coming in off a poor result in Atlanta (23rd) and a disappointing 18th in Chicago.
He led the most laps in the street race and won stages 1 and 2 but couldn’t get his second win of the season. He’s one of the best drivers in New Hampshire, with an average finish of 10th. He’s had good results in similar tracks. Phoenix saw him finish sixth, Gateway 11th, and Richmond fourth. Those results put him in a good position to be the first repeat winner at New Hampshire since Kevin Harvick in 2018-19.
Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. are close behind at +600 each. Hamlin’s the best driver on the grid in New Hampshire. His average finish of ninth is any active driver’s best NASCAR Cup results.
He had one of his worst results of the season in Phoenix (23rd) but improved in Phoenix (20th) and a great result at Gateway (second). He’s dropped off since Gateway, with just one top-five result in the last four races. It’s one of his best tracks on the calendar, and a win would close the gap to Byron at the top.
Truex Jr. spent much of the last two months leading the Cup Series standings. Consecutive poor results in Chicago and Atlanta have him 21 points back from the series lead. It’s made for his worst back-to-back performances all season.
He’s one of the best drivers in New Hampshire with an average finish of 11th, but he’s never won in Loudon. Last year, he started on the pole and led 172 laps before finishing fourth. He’s enjoying a much better season in 2023. Look for him to be near the front once again.
Kyle Larson rounds out the top four at +700. New Hampshire’s an average track for him, with four top-five results in 12 NASCAR races. But he’s the only driver with top-five finishes in Phoenix, Gateway, and Richmond this season. He took the pole and led the most laps before taking fourth in Phoenix.
He finished fourth in Gateway and won in Richmond. Last week in Atlanta was rough, with a 36th-place result so he’ll be looking to bounce back. He’s best on speedways like this and will be a strong threat for the win.
Prior winners next in the NASCAR Series Crayon 301 Odds
Both Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch are +900 for victory on Sunday. They’ve both won this event twice before Harvick in 2018 and 2019 and Busch in 2006 and 2015.
Harvick’s been in a rut recently. Nashville, Chicago, and Atlanta has made for his worst stretch of the NASCAR season with 24th-, 29th-, and 30th-place finishes. He has more wins at New Hampshire than any other active driver, so this race is crucial.
Can he use one of his better tracks to break the cold streak? Before this stretch he’d finished fifth in both Phoenix and Richmond and 10th in Gateway. He’s still winless in 2023 and a win here would secure his spot in the playoffs.
Busch is enjoying a great run of form lately. His fifth-place result in Atlanta makes it seven races in a row with a top-eight result. No one on the Cup Series grid can match Rowdy with that. He’s historically one of the best qualifiers at Loudon with an average starting position of ninth.
But the races have seen him drop off a bit, with an average finish of 14th. Crashes cut his races short in 2020 and 2021, the latter of which he started on pole. He dominated at Gateway with the win from the pole and the most laps led. Phoenix saw him finish eighth, and he took 14th in Richmond. With more luck in New Hampshire, he could be in victory lane again for the fourth time this season.
Elliott is next up at +1100. His solid run of top-five finishes ended in Atlanta with a 13th-place result. But he came close to victory last year after qualifying second and leading 13 laps. He’s missed races at comparable tracks; he was recovering from a leg injury during Phoenix and Richmond and was suspended for Gateway. He’s been so-so at Loudon with just two top-five results in nine races there.
Championship leader Byron rounds out this next group at +1200. The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series leader won in Phoenix and led the most laps in Richmond (despite finishing 24th). An eight-place result in Gateway’s a solid showing as well. Historically, New Hampshire is not one of his better tracks. He’s never made the top 10 in five events. But he’s in good enough form in 2023 that challenging for victory wouldn’t be a surprise.
Drivers with long NASCAR odds to consider
Since his win from pole in the first Atlanta race this year, Joey Logano (+1400) has had an up-and-down season. Three finishes at 30th or lower have outweighed three top-three results since then. He’s raced well in Phoenix (11th), Richmond (seventh), and Gateway (third) this season. Historically, it’s an okay track for him, with two wins and another six top-fives in 24 races. He led 25 laps last year before finishing 24th.
Brad Keselowski (+2200) has remarkably long odds considering he’s a two-time winner in New Hampshire. Only Hamlin has a better average finish than the 2012 champion at this track. Twenty-two races have seen him finish in the top five nine times. His last win there came in 2020, followed by a third-place finish in 2021 and seventh last year. He’s been off the pace at similar tracks (28th in Gateway and 18th in Phoenix) but had a solid sixth-place finish last week.
Picks for the NASCAR Crayon 301
The NASCAR Series Crayon 301 odds line up with who you can expect to be fighting for the win on Sunday. Truex Jr. is the best choice among the favorites for the win. He’s excelled in New Hampshire before and led most of the race last year from the pole. Look for him to get that first win in Loudon and push back to the top of the NASCAR standings.
For a better payout, look to Busch or Keselowski. They both have great track records in New Hampshire, and the former is racing very well in 2023.
For NASCAR odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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