NASCAR Quaker State 400 Odds: Spread-out field in return to Atlanta

The Cup Series returns to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Quaker State 400 this weekend. This event marks the first repeat oval on the 2023 calendar, with the first event at Atlanta Motor Speedway in March (Ambetter Health 400). There are only eight events left in the Cup Series regular season, and it’s been a close fight for the championship lead throughout 2023. The NASCAR Quaker State 400 odds reflect that parity with no favorites with much shorter odds than most of the field.

Last week’s race in Chicago was an incredible success. The series’ first street race ever was the most-watched Cup Series race in six years for NBC and the most-watched race on any network since the Daytona 500. Data shows 4.795 million people watched New Zealander Shane van Gisbergen win on his Cup Series debut in mixed conditions.

This week the grid returns to a familiar oval format. Here’s how the odds break down in a close field.

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Busch, Elliott slightly ahead in close leading group

Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott are tied for the shortest odds of victory at +1000. Busch is enjoying his best season since his 2019 title-winning campaign. He’s been on a good run lately as the only Cup Series driver with six straight top-10 finishes.

Atlanta’s a good track for him, too. He’s notched two wins and another 10 top-10 finishes in 27 events. His average finish (13th) is among the best on the grid. A win here would give him four in 2023, the most of any driver in the series this season.

Elliott is among the few drivers with a better average finish (11th) in Atlanta than Busch. He’s the defending race winner but missed the Ambetter Health 400 earlier this season due to his leg injury.

Elliott’s been one of the best drivers over the last month in the Cup Series with three consecutive top-five finishes. He’s far down the NASCAR playoff standings from a guaranteed spot, but a win will get him in.

Four drivers sit at +1200: Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Martin Truex Jr. All have won races in 2023, including Logano’s victory at the first Atlanta event this season.

Hamlin’s been inconsistent after his win in Kansas in early May. Two podiums (Gateway and Nashville) have evened out bad results in Charlotte (35th) and Sonoma (36th). Last week he took pole position in Chicago before finishing 11th in the race. He’s sixth in the standings but only 53 points behind Truex Jr. in first.

But Atlanta is one of his worst tracks on the NASCAR race schedule. He’s won just once in 26 events and finished 17th on average. It’d be a big change from precedent for him to win this weekend.

Blaney’s in his worst stretch of results in 2023. Thirty-first in Sonoma, 36th in Nashville, and 33rd in Chicago. It’s been a sharp drop-off in performance since his win in Charlotte.

Luckily, he’s one of the best drivers on the grid in Atlanta, finishing 11th on average with one win (2021) in 10 events. It’s one of his best tracks and could make for a good bounce-back opportunity.

Logano won in the spring, but that was his first in 19 races. Before that win from pole in March, he’d finished 26th, ninth, 10th, 15th, 10th, and 23rd since this event in 2019. The track changed to a superspeedway starting in 2022, and plays more to his strengths. Jimmie Johnson was the last driver to sweep both events at Atlanta Motor Speedway in the 2007 Cup Series season. It’ll be tough for him to repeat that feat.

Truex Jr.’s rough day in Chicago (32nd) was a departure from his recent form. Since his win in Dover, he’d finished eighth or better in five of six NASCAR races. He’s never won in Atlanta in 27 races and has made the top five just six times. Despite his recent success, it’d be a surprise to see him in victory lane this week.

Longer Quaker State 400 odds worth considering

After that group of six drivers between +1000 and +1200, another five are between +1400 and +1600.

Brad Keselowski (+1400) had a strong showing in the spring race, finishing second to Logano from fourth on the grid. He had a good performance (fifth) in Talladega, another drafting track on the calendar. He nearly won in Daytona after leading the most laps but dropped to 22nd. He’ll give you a slightly better payout and could be a surprise winner this week.

Ross Chastain (+1600) finished second in both Atlanta races in 2022. He dropped off slightly in the spring race this season by finishing 13th. But he finally has a win on the board in 2023 after his victory in Nashville, giving him some momentum for this weekend. Atlanta’s one of his best tracks on the calendar, and he performs best at speedways like it.

Keselowski’s teammate Chris Buescher (+2000) is another intriguing pick. He led laps in the spring race and was top eight in both stages before a spinning Kevin Harvick took him out of the race.

He’s notched good results in other high-speed drafting tracks this season, with fourth in Daytona and third in Talladega. He’d be a great value pick with a good chance at victory.

Quaker State 400 Picks

This weekend’s a departure from many of the recent NASCAR odds, with many contenders close together. Of the top favorites, Elliott’s the pick here. He and Busch would make for an exciting NASCAR duel, but the 2020 champion will likely come out on top. Kurt Busch is the last driver to notch consecutive wins in the event, but Elliott’s on a good enough run recently to give him a great shot.

Of the longer NASCAR Quaker State 400 odds, look for Blaney or Chastain to give you a better payout. Blaney needs a strong result and Chastain is on the upswing with recent success. Get ready for thrilling NASCAR duels as these drivers set the stage for an exhilarating showdown.

For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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