2023 Ally 400 Odds: New Cup Series leader near the top

Martin Truex Jr. ended a 54-race winless streak in May with a win at Dover. Last time out in Sonoma, he made it two wins this season, just the second time he’s reached that total in the last four years. He now leads the Cup Series standings by 13 points over William Byron, his first time at the top of the championship standings since 2019. This recent success led to a big bump near the top of the 2023 Ally 400 odds.

Truex Jr.’s among the favorites for victory Sunday at Nashville Superspeedway. Here’s how the rest of the odds break down.

Experience the Thrills of the Ally 400 NASCAR Race on Point Spreads!

Larson tops leader group once again

As he has been for most of the season, 2021 Cup Series champion Kyle Larson is favored this weekend in Nashville at +500. Though the Cup Series has only run two events in Nashville, Larson’s raced well in both.

The first Ally 400 in 2021 saw him lead 264 of 300 laps and win from fifth on the grid. Last year, he finished fourth after starting third. He has the best track record so far at Nashville of any Cup Series driver.

Truex Jr.’s had worse results than Larson in Nashville. But 22nd in both 2021 and 2022 only tells part of the story. He was a bad pit call from winning after sweeping both stages. One of his three wins this season came in Dover, took pole, and led the most laps at Darlington before crashing out.

He’s also the hottest Cup Series driver with three straight top-five finishes. It’s been three months since a Cup Series driver had consecutive wins, but Truex Jr. (+600) has the momentum and track record to do it.

Three drivers are bunched behind them at +750: Kyle Busch, Byron, and Chase Elliott.

Busch finished second to Truex Jr. in Sonoma after winning stage 2 of the race. Rowdy’s already enjoying a bounce-back year with three victories, the most since his 2019 title season. He’s been in great form lately, with four consecutive top-eight finishes.

He has yet to race well in Nashville before, 11th in 2021 and 21st last year, though he led laps in both races. Due to track characteristics, Nashville’s drawn comparisons to Dover and Darlington on the NASCAR Cup scheduleNASCAR Cup schedule due to track characteristics. Neither is among Busch’s best tracks over his career.

Byron’s had mixed results in Nashville. He took third in 2021 but dropped from 13th to 35th in last year’s race. He’s currently second in the championship thanks to some of the most consistent running in the Cup Series this season.

Three wins and four top-five finishes have him set for another playoff appearance. He won in Darlington and led the most laps on his way to fourth in Dover. Given his form this season, he could be the first driver to get to four wins in 2023. Hendrick Motorsports drivers have won both Nashville races and Byron could continue that streak.

Elliott, the defending Ally 400 race winner, finished fifth in Sonoma after his week’s suspension. He managed 11th in Dover and third in Darlington. He may be far down the Cup Series standings but the NASCAR odds have him near the top for good reason.

Hamlin (+800) took pole last season in Nashville but managed just sixth place. In 2021, he finished 21st after starting from 13th. He has the best track record of any Cup Series driver at Darlington and finished fifth in Dover. His first pole position of 2023 in Sonoma yielded a 36th-place result. He’ll be looking to bounce back this week.

Longer NASCAR odds worth considering this week

Ross Chastain (+1000) led the Cup Series standings for much of 2023. But a recent string of down performances has him in fourth. Tenth in Sonoma could be the first race in a return to form for the Trackhouse Racing driver.

Only Larson has a better track record than Chastain in Nashville. Chastain’s enjoyed two top-five finishes, including second in 2021. He’s one of two drivers without a win in the top 10 of the standings, which could change this week.

Ryan Blaney (+1200) used to struggle on tracks like Nashville. But in 2023, he took third in Dover and ninth in Darlington. He’s third in the Cup Series standings thanks to nine top-10 finishes this season, including a win in Charlotte. He struggled last time in Sonoma (31st) but looked good in 2023 overall.

Predictions for the Ally 400

Nashville’s one of the newer tracks on the Cup Series calendar. Though there’s less track record than other stops on the calendar, the 2023 Ally 400 odds stack up well with how the 2023 season’s going.

Hendrick Motorsports’ won the only two Ally 400 Cup Series races on record. Look for that to continue with Byron taking the win on Sunday.

If you’re looking for a bigger payout, Blaney is overdue for a win in 2023. He’s a solid choice for victory this week.

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