Aces vs Mercury Betting Odds: Vegas Poised to Lock Up WNBA’s Best Record

It’s a battle between worst and first as the Phoenix Mercury host the Las Vegas Aces on Friday (10 p.m. ET) at Footprint Center.

Las Vegas is the WNBA’s best team, and the odds for this contest say as much. The Aces are an 18.5-point favorite (-110) and -2000 on the moneyline, while last-place Phoenix is priced +1125. Meanwhile, the projected total is 165 (-115 Over, -105 Under), with a slight edge to the Over.

Read on as we break down the Aces vs Mercury betting odds in our game preview.

Still Aces for Las Vegas

Are the Las Vegas Aces still the team to beat? With two games remaining in the regular season, the 32-6 Aces are clinging to a half-game lead over the New York Liberty for the WNBA’s best record.

The Aces have looked surprisingly vulnerable of late, with three losses in their last 10 games. But with only a home-and-home against last-place Phoenix left on the WNBA schedule, there’s no need to worry. Their standing is relatively secure.

Oddsmakers still consider the Aces the favorite, pricing them -160 to repeat. New York — the WNBA’s other “Super Team” — is next on the board at +130, while the Connecticut Sun and Dallas Wings are both a distant third at +2800.

A’ja Wilson has been the biggest factor in Las Vegas’ success. The reigning WNBA MVP ranks second in the league in rebounding (9.6), third in scoring (22.3) and first in blocks (2.2). She’s put herself in contention for another MVP award in the process. She’s currently priced at +300, trailing only New York’s Breanna Stewart (-300).

Nobody’s come close to matching Las Vegas’ dominance outside New York for a prolonged stretch. The Aces are the WNBA’s top scoring team, averaging 92.6 points per game, and have a league-best plus-12.3 point differential. New York is next on the board at plus-9.0. Keep that in mind when assessing the Aces vs Mercury betting odds.

Phoenix Falling Flat

The Phoenix Mercury have been arguably the WNBA’s most disappointing team. The Mercury own the league’s worst record at 9-29, including just 1-18 on the road.

Phoenix has lost nine consecutive games. The good news? The Mercury could finish with the best odds to land the No. 1 pick in April’s draft, one that’s expected to be loaded with potential difference-makers. Still, it doesn’t erase the sting from such an underwhelming season.

Outside of Brittney Griner’s resurgence — the nine-time All-Star is averaging a team-high 17.7 points, 6.6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks after missing last season while imprisoned in Russia — not much has gone right for Phoenix. Diana Taurasi is hurt again, and the Mercury’s supporting cast has underwhelmed. Taurasi, the oldest WNBA player at 41, is averaging her fewest minutes (27.3) since 2019.

Notably, Phoenix ranks last in the WNBA in scoring at 76.5 points per game. It also has the worst point differential at minus-7.8.

Odds Outlook

Las Vegas is 20-19 against the spread but just 7-12 on the road. The Aces are also 20-18 ATS as a favorite. Phoenix, meanwhile, is a league-worst 13-25 ATS, including 9-10 at home. That includes a 10-20 mark ATS as an underdog. That’s important to remember when evaluating the Aces vs Mercury odds.

Handicapping the Game

If it wins out, Las Vegas can clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the WNBA playoffs. Is there any question it’ll get the job done? The Aces are already 2-0 against Phoenix this season, having beaten them 99-79 on June 21 and 98-72 on July 11.

Las Vegas is markedly better, and now Phoenix must do without Taurasi, who is out with a toe injury. Veteran guard Shey Peddy (concussion) is also out, forcing the Mercury to look outside for guard depth. It’s an untenable position, especially against the WNBA title favorites.

With still much to gain, Las Vegas should take care of business here. Look for the Aces to cover on the road.

For WNBA news, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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