Sparks vs Sun Betting Preview: Ogwumike’s Health Bears Watching

With their playoff fate hanging in the balance, the Los Angeles Sparks will visit the Connecticut Sun Tuesday (7 p.m. ET) needing a victory.

Connecticut opened as a 9.5-point favorite but is now down to -6.5 (-110). It’s also -355 to win outright, while Los Angeles is priced +280. Meanwhile, the projected total is 157.5 (-110).

Read on as we break down both teams in our Sparks vs Sun betting preview.

LA Barely Hanging Onto Playoff Spot

With a record of 16-21, the Los Angeles Sparks are clinging to the eighth and final playoff spot in the WNBA standings. They maintain a 1.0-game lead on the Chicago Sky (15-22) with three regular season games remaining, all on the road.

Can Los Angeles hold on? Much of that will depend on the status of Nneka Ogwumike. The eight-time All-Star and former MVP missed Sunday’s 72-64 victory over the Washington Mystics with a knee injury. Ogwumike, who is listed as day-to-day on the injury report, is putting together another strong statistical season. She’s sixth in the WNBA in scoring (19.1), eighth in field goal percentage (50.9) and tied for fifth in steals (1.7) while averaging 31.3 minutes per game.

With Ogwumike sidelined, Layshia Clarendon led the Sparks in scoring with 15 points. Jordin Canada (14 points) and Dearica Hamby (12 points) joined Clarendon in double figures.

Even with her, Los Angeles has struggled to score consistently. The Sparks are averaging only 78.4 points, second-fewest in the WNBA. But they’ve made up for it by holding opponents to just 79.6 points a contest. Keep that in mind when assessing the odds in our Sparks vs Sun betting preview.

Defense Does it for Connecticut

With three games left in the regular season, the Connecticut Sun (25-12) are locked into the No. 3 seed for the playoffs. Connecticut is coming off its most lopsided loss of the season, 89-58 to the New York Liberty last Friday. Tiffany Hayes led Connecticut with 11 points, while Thomas was held to eight points and four rebounds.

The Sun still own the third best WNBA title odds, but they’re well behind defending champion Las Vegas (-160) and New York (+145).

Thomas has been Connecticut’s most impactful player, ranking first in the WNBA in rebounds (9.8), second in assists (7.9) and tied for third in steals (1.8). She’s also averaging more minutes (36.8) than anyone outside of Dallas’ Arike Ogunbowale. As such, Thomas, who has 26 double-doubles in 37 games, is third on the MVP oddsboard at +1000, trailing New York’s Breanna Stewart (-110) and Las Vegas’ A’ja Wilson (-115), the reigning winner.

What’s fueled Connecticut’s success? Look no further than its defense. The Sun have held opponents to an WNBA-low 79.0 points per game.

Odds Outlook

The Sun are 20-15-1 against the spread, including 9-8 at home. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 19-17-1 ATS but 7-9-1 on the road. Additionally, Connecticut is 14-10-1 ATS when favored while Los Angeles is 12-9-1 ATS as an underdog. That’s important to remember when analyzing the odds in our Sparks vs Sun betting preview.

Handicapping the Game

Connecticut is 2-0 against Los Angeles this season, having defeated the Sparks 83-74 on June 18 and 83-68 on Aug. 27 per WNBA scores. The Sun have consistently been among the best WNBA teams, with a standout duo in Thomas and DeWanna Bonner complemented by a strong veteran core.

Los Angeles is talented enough defensively to slow Connecticut down, but that job becomes a lot more difficult with Ogwumike injured. If she plays, Los Angeles will have an opportunity to pull off the upset. But for now, it’s hard to put must trust in the Sparks. Thus, look for Connecticut to cover the spread at home, where they are 11-6 straight up.

For WNBA betting news, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

• Sun vs Liberty Betting Odds: Connecticut Solidifying WNBA Playoff Standing
• Mystics vs Aces Preview: Will Las Vegas Try Against Surging Washington?
• Sun vs Mercury Betting Odds: Connecticut’s Thomas Bolsters MVP Bid
• Lynx vs Mystics Betting Preview: Healthy Again, Washington Trending Up
• Sky vs Sparks Betting Odds: Bank on a Playoff Atmosphere in L.A.