Sun vs Mercury Betting Odds: Connecticut’s Thomas Bolsters MVP Bid

The Connecticut Sun will look to add to the Phoenix Mercury’s woes when the teams meet Thursday at Mohegan Sun Arena. Connecticut is a healthy 10.5-point favorite (-115) and -750 to win outright, while Phoenix is +10.5 (-105) against the spread and +525 on the moneyline. The projected total is 156.5.

Who has the edge? We dive into the matchup in our Sun vs Mercury betting odds preview.

Thomas Staying in MVP Conversation

Continuing to strengthen her case for WNBA Most Valuable Player, forward Alyssa Thomas collected 17 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists in Sunday’s 83-68 victory over the Los Angeles Sparks. That came on the heels of a 95-90 overtime loss to the New York Liberty on Aug. 24, in which Thomas set an WNBA single-season record with her 24th double-double. The four-time All-Star broke the mark previously held by Tina Charles in 2011.

Thomas, 31, also owns the record for career triple-doubles, having recorded five this season and nine for her career. She also became the fourth player in league history to record 3,000 points, 2,000 rebounds and 1,000 assists during her career with a single franchise, joining Tamika Catchings (Indiana Fever), Candace Parker (Sparks) and Diana Taurasi (Phoenix Mercury).

In doing so, Thomas has catapulted herself into the conversation for her first MVP award. While New York’s Breanna Stewart (-120) and Las Vegas’ A’ja Wilson (+110), the reigning MVP, remain comfortably ahead, Thomas (+1000) is the only other player on the board with 10/1 odds or better.

Can Thomas continue to climb the leaderboard and catch Stewart and/or Wilson? Based on her WNBA stats, she’s certainly making a compelling case. In addition to averaging 15.9 points per game, Thomas leads the WNBA in rebounding (9.9) and is tied with New York’s Courtney Vandersloot for first in assists (8.1).

With 282 assists, Thomas is closing in on the league’s single-season record of 300 set by Vandersloot in 2019. Thomas also ranks third in steals (1.9) while averaging the most minutes alongside Dallas’ Arike Ogunbowale (37.1).

With only five regular season games remaining, time may be Thomas’ biggest obstacle. But the Sun have done well for themselves, registering the third-best record in the WNBA (24-11) behind Las Vegas and New York, the newly anointed “Super Teams.” The Sun are +2200 to win their first title, according to WNBA odds.

Phoenix Sinking Further and Further

Essentially, what could go wrong did go wrong for the Phoenix Mercury this season. The Mercury, a preseason +2500 WNBA title pick, own the league’s worst record at 9-26 and have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

It snapped a string of 10 straight playoff appearances, which matched the second longest streak in league history. Before this season, the last time Phoenix missed the postseason was in 2012, when Taurasi played just eight games due to injury. Following that season, Phoenix drafted Brittney Griner first overall.

Griner has been one of Phoenix’s lone bright spots, averaging a team-high 17.9 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.8 blocks after missing all of last season while imprisoned in Russia. The 6-foot-9 center was named an All-Star for the ninth time in her career.

Phoenix is currently riding a six-game losing streak. In the most recent defeat, 94-76 on Tuesday to the Atlanta Dream, Taurasi was held scoreless for only the sixth time in her legendary 19-year career. She shot 0-for-5 and had two assists and two turnovers in 13 minutes.

The league’s all-time leading scorer, Taurasi, 41, is still averaging 16.0 points on 40.3% shooting. Notably, she is listed as questionable for Thursday with a toe injury. Be sure to check on Taurasi’s status again when assessing the Sun vs Mercury betting odds.

Handicapping the Game

Curiously, Connecticut is 0-2 against Phoenix this season, having lost 72-66 on July 18 and 90-84 on Aug. 10. What to make of it? Good question. It’s one those oddities that don’t make much sense.

The Mercury have been dismal, particularly on the road where they are 1-16. That’s right, 1-16. Their only victory away from home came June 11 at Indiana, 85-82.

Phoenix is simply playing out the string at this point, while Connecticut can clinch the No. 3 overall seed Thursday with a win or a Dallas Wings loss.

Given how overmatched the Mercury have been lately, expect Connecticut to take care of business at Mohegan Sun Arena and solidify their standing in the postseason. The Sun seem like safe double-digit favorite in the Sun vs Mercury betting odds.

For WNBA predictions, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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