Lakers, Pelicans Close to a Pick ‘Em for In-Season Tourney Semis
NBA In-Season Tournament Semifinals: Lakers Slight Favorites
The final four for the NBA’s inaugural in-season tournament is set. Thursday’s semifinals at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas will feature the Indiana Pacers taking on the Milwaukee Bucks and the New Orleans Pelicans facing the Los Angeles Lakers.
For the sake of this article, we’ll be focusing on the Western Conference duel between New Orleans and Los Angeles. The Lakers opened as 2.5-point favorites but are down to essentially a pick ’em at -1. The projected total is 230 flat, up a tick from 229.5.
This is the teams’ first meeting this season. Who has the edge? Read on as we break down the odds for the in-season tournament semifinals (West).
Pelicans vs Lakers 
Day/Time:
Location: T-Mobile Arena; Las Vegas
Streaming: TNT
Betting Trends
The New Orleans Pelicans have been among the most profitable NBA teams for bettors this season, with a record of 13-8-1 against the spread. The Pelicans’ 61.9% cover rate is the fifth highest in the NBA. Also, New Orleans has gone Under the projected total in 12 of its 22 games.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers are just 10-12 ATS. They’ve gone Under the projected total in 13 of their 22 games, the fourth-highest rate (59.1%) in the league.
That’s important to remember when assessing the odds for the in-season tournament semifinals (West).
So Far, So Good for Zion and Co.
The New Orleans Pelicans are coming off a 127-117 victory over the Sacramento Kings in Monday’s in-season tournament quarterfinals. A 3-point underdog, New Orleans got 30 points from Brandon Ingram and 23 points from Herbert Jones. The Pelicans built an eight-point lead at halftime and covered the spread for the third time in four games. Per NBA scores, they’re now 9-4 ATS and 8-5 SU as an underdog.
At 12-10, the Pelicans sit a half game out of first place in the Southwest Division. Accordingly, they’re now +200 to win the division, trailing only the Dallas Mavericks (-160). Their Western Conference NBA betting odds are considerably longer at +2000.
Whether the Pelicans can cash in on those odds will largely depend on the health of forward Zion Williamson. Prior to this season, Williamson had missed 63% of the Pelicans’ games since being drafted first overall out of Duke in 2019, including the entire 2021-22 season. He’s appeared in 18 games this season, averaging 22.7 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists. But as always, concern about his durability lingers.
Guard CJ McCollum, New Orleans’ third-leading scorer (20.7 PPG) behind Ingram and Williamson, recently returned after missing three weeks with a collapsed lung. Rookie first-rounder Jordan Hawkins stepped up in McCollum’s place, making nine starts. As such, Hawkins, who’s averaging 12.9 points on 37.3% shooting from 3, is now on the odds board for NBA Rookie of the Year at +10000.
King James at it Again
The Los Angeles Lakers punched their ticket to the in-season tournament semifinals (West) with a 106-103 victory over the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday. LeBron James led Los Angeles with 31 points, 11 assists, and five steals, while Anthony Davis contributed 27 points and 15 rebounds. Austin Reaves added 20 points off the bench. The Lakers, 2-point favorites, built a 12-point halftime lead and held on to cover the spread for the third time in four NBA games. Los Angeles is now 7-7 ATS but 11-3 SU when favored.
The Lakers now lead the Pacific Division at 13-9. Despite that, they are only +450 to win the division, trailing Phoenix (+125) and Sacramento (+375). The Lakers are also +1000 to win the Western Conference, one of four teams with odds of 10/1 or better.
As usual, Los Angeles’ fate largely rests on the performances of James and Davis. If that star-studded duo stays healthy and plays to its potential, the Lakers will be in the mix come June. It’s why their NBA Championship odds are a modest +2000, ahead of the likes of the Los Angeles Clippers (+2200) and Miami Heat (+4000).
James doesn’t appear to be slowing down. The four-time MVP and 19-time All-Star, who turns 39 later this month, is averaging 24.7 points, 7.6 rebounds and 6.6 assists. He played 40 minutes on Tuesday, matching his second-biggest workload this NBA season. Meanwhile, the 30-year-old Davis is averaging 23 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks.
Handicapping the Game
If this were any typical regular-season game, there’d be concern about James’ workload coming off a 40-minute performance. The term “load management” might even be thrown around. But given the stakes, bettors shouldn’t need to worry about his availability. The same goes for Davis, who logged 39 minutes against Phoenix.
James and Davis are both all-in, which means the Lakers are all-in. Based on that — and that alone — it makes sense that Los Angeles opened as a slight favorite over the Pelicans at a neutral site in Las Vegas. The Lakers will be a difficult out.
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