NBA Atlantic Division Odds Update: Can Philadelphia Catch Boston?
Shorthanded 76ers Have No Room for Error in This Race
Odds Have Celtics as the Uncrowned Champs
With just a few weeks left in the NBA season, the Boston Celtics appear destined to capture their second straight Atlantic Division title. Boston is 2.5 games ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers and is a whopping -4000 per the NBA’s Atlantic Division odds. But is there a chance that Philadelphia closes the gap and comes from behind to “steal” this title away? The odds are intimidating, especially when Philly’s two best players are injured.
Philadelphia and Boston’s Paths to the Division Title
Boston’s path to the division title is much easier than Philadelphia’s. All Boston has to do is match Philadelphia’s record for the next six games. Philadelphia, on the other hand, has to win out and/or hope Boston goes on a losing skid. One way to forecast how this goes is to look at their remaining schedule, and it’s not that different:
Philadelphia’s remaining opponents’ combined winning percentage: 56.4 percent (seven teams)
Boston’s remaining opponents’ combined winning percentage: 55.6 percent (six teams)
Even more intriguing is how nearly identical their opponents are. Boston and Philadelphia face Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Toronto. They also play each other one final time. The Celtics then take on Utah and Toronto again while Philadelphia faces Brooklyn, Miami, and Dallas.
Of these teams, only Dallas and Utah have a losing record on the NBA standings. Toronto and Atlanta are both at .500 prior to Wednesday, March 29’s games. The game against Milwaukee could be a difference-maker here. Boston is 1-1 against the Bucks while Philadelphia is 2-1.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, the two-time MVP for Milwaukee, is banged up. Milwaukee already clinched its division title but is battling Boston (and Denver) for the home court advantage throughout the playoffs. So there is a good chance Antetokounmpo suits up to help the Bucks clinch the top seed in the conference.
Both Boston and Philadelphia also each have four home games remaining. Boston is a bit better at home with a 28-9 record while Philadelphia is 26-11. The Celtics also host the Raptors, a team that is just 12-24 as a visitor, two straight times. Meanwhile, one of Philadelphia’s home games is against Boston itself. Philadelphia lost to Boston the last time they met at the Wells Fargo Center.
Boston faces Milwaukee, Utah, and Philadelphia for its next three games. If it can win all these games, that will likely wrap up the Atlantic Division odds.
Philadelphia’s Recent Form: Limping to the Playoffs
Philadelphia, just over a week ago, tied Boston for the top spot in the division. The Atlantic Division odds looked much different than with both teams at 49-23. But since then, Boston went 3-1 while Philadelphia dropped three straight games. To make it worse for Philly, both Joel Embiid (calf) and James Harden (Achilles) are hurt. The former missed what would have been a crucial matchup versus Nikola Jokic in Denver.
“When someone says calf, in my opinion — even though I’m not medical — you just can’t play [around] with them,” Sixers coach Doc Rivers told ESPN ahead of the Nuggets game. “You just don’t. They’re also slow [to heal]. We’ve been that way all year with everybody with that, and calves are tough.”
Harden’s absence was also ill-timed as Philadelphia went on a four-game road trip that included Golden State, Phoenix, and Denver. The Sixers lost these three games and only covered as a 10-point underdog against Denver on the NBA spreads. The team may just elect to concede the division title to Boston and rest both Harden and Embiid in hopes they return before the playoffs at full strength.
Boston’s Recent Form: Resurgent Again
Other than an ugly loss to Washington, Boston has been back to near-elite form. The Celtics appeared unbeatable prior to the All-Star break with a 42-17 record. They hit a rough patch after and played .500 basketball until going on a bit of a run again. But part of that is because of the easier schedule.
“We’ve been playing really good basketball for a stretch of time,” said head coach Joe Mazzulla following the 130-111 loss to Washington. “Tonight was just an off night. Very rarely has that happened to us, so we just have to move on and control the things that we can.”
Boston’s enjoyed blowout wins over the likes of San Antonio, Indiana, and Portland. It scored 120+ points in four of its last six games and is relatively healthy. The Celtics are just behind Milwaukee to come out of the East at +155. This team will finish strong, clinch the division, and get ready for playoff basketball.
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