Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors Odds: Game 3 Preview

Warriors Look to Steady Ship

The Golden State Warriors return home facing an 0-2 series deficit for the first-time in the Steph Curry era. Let’s take a look at the Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors Odds and find the best value for bettors.

The Kings defended home court in admirable style to take a commanding lead in the series, but replicating that effort on the road will be the real test against the defending NBA champions. Sacramento’s offense was far from it’s best in Game 2 but the team still found ways to put pressure on the Warriors defense in spurts that helped them play from in front for the majority of the contest.

No team had a bigger home/road split on the season than the Warriors and the change it atmosphere will go a long way to elevating the belief within the team. Draymond Green has been suspended by the NBA following his Flagrant 2 foul on Domantas Sabonis that led to him being ejected in Game 2.

The Warriors opened as 7.5-point favorites for this one, but have since dropped to -5.5 on the back of the Green suspension. The total for this game is set at 238.0 points.

No Green Might Prove Helpful

Things were already a bit disjointed for Golden State with Draymond Green available, but things are about to get a lot murkier now for Steve Kerr as he tries to adjust for the absence of his best defender and secondary playmaker.

The Golden State Warriors offense has struggled to execute at the level we’ve become accustomed to over the years in the playoffs and a lot of that is down to the pace of play that these games are being played.

Golden State runs a motion offense that involves a lot of off-ball movement and action; executing that in a game where they’re being forced to chase and play both ends non-stop is showing in the results we’re getting from the Warriors down the stretch of games.

Green’s absence ultimately might turn into a blessing in disguise for this offense by having them run a simpler playbook that gives them an extra scorer on the floor in pick and roll action. Mike Brown has clearly instructed his players to sag off Green as a playmaker and that has allowed the Kings to gamble in the passing lanes to force turnovers and ignite fastbreak opportunities whenever he has the ball.

Sacramento is averaging just 10.1 seconds per possession off missed field goal attempts by the Warriors versus a 16.4 second per possession average off made field goals. That is a huge difference in how the Warriors can defend and the energy spent in halfcourt defence versus transition defense, Sacramento is averaging just 10.1 seconds per possession off missed field goal attempts by the Warriors versus a 16.4 second per possession average off made field goals. That is a huge difference in how the Warriors can defend and the energy spent in halfcourt defence versus transition defense, highlighting the importance of possession time in the Kings vs Warriors matchup.

The Kings were atop the NBA standings in transition frequency this season and forcing them away from their natural game is the Warriors best chance to regain control in this series. While Green’s absence will leave a hole defensively it might help them by being able to run an offense that’s better suited to this series.

Kings Keep Believing

No one believed the Sacramento Kings would maintain their impressive start to the regular season, yet the team still found a way to not only win the toughest division in basketball but also secure the #3 seed in the Wester Conference.

Now, they’re again proving that they belong by being the first time to hand the Warriors an 0-2 series deficit during their Championship era.

All that said, a young team showing up on the road remains the biggest test for a group like this and having them weather the early storm will go a long way to dictating whether this team is capable of standing up to the task.

Sacramento’s offense remains the teams best form of defense and the duo of De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk are proving a handful with their ability to penetrate the paint and open up the floor for their teammates.

I would expect those two to see a lot more face guarding by Golden State’s best defenders and if that’s the case it’ll be interesting to see how the Kings defense stacks up in a road game where their offense isn’t able to have the same impact on a game that they’ve had so far in this series.

While many NBA betting analysts will tell you that playing a home team on the who is down 0-2 in the series on a first half spread is a long-time profitable strategy we’ve seen that to come undone in recent times. In the last 33 instances those lines are just 15-15-3 ATS and we can see an active adjustment in the first half number versus the full game spread for all of those games.

While I wouldn’t blindly take those trends I would lean towards the Warriors being able to cover their first half and full game number in this one, even without Green. The latest updates say Domantas Sabonis is questionable with sternum contusion as a result of Green’s antics and him being anything less than 100% is a huge blow to Sacramento’s offense and rebounding.

Expect the Warriors to show up the way they do best in this spot and taking their spread and Team Total seem a great proposition on the adjusted numbers.

That’s all for our Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors Odds preview. Be sure to check out all our NBA playoffs predictions and tips before making your next bet.

For NBA betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

• 76ers vs Nets Odds: Philadelphia Rolls Into Game 3 in Cruise Control
• Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Odds Analysis
• Bucks vs Heat Odds: Will Giannis Play in Game 2?
• LA Lakers vs Memphis Grizzlies Odds: Grizz Hungry to Even Series
• New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Preview: Odds Shows Big Move in Game 2 Total