Thunder vs Kings Odds: OKC Invades Sacramento as Underdogs
Why Are Thunder Dogs in This Matchup?
Sacramento Favored Despite Trends
The Oklahoma City Thunder are arguably the NBA’s best road team. This team has the best net rating (+9.2) and is 7-2-1 against the spread (ATS). And yet, the Thunder vs Kings odds reveal this team as a 2-point underdog and 241.5 on the total. But wait! Before rushing to bet OKC as an underdog, let’s find out if Sacramento, which is just 5-5 ATS at home, deserves to be a favorite.
Thunder vs Kings 
Day/Time:
Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Stream: BSOK
Is Oklahoma City Really That Good on The Road?
In short: yes. Just look at Oklahoma City’s schedule on the road so far. Six of the Thunder’s 10 games have been against teams above. 500 while two more came against Golden State in a back-to-back. The Thunder beat the Warriors consecutively as well as the Suns and Mavericks. This team is legitimate.
Most surprising is also how great the Thunder’s defense is. Oklahoma City is allowing the fewest points (107.2) and the lowest field goal percentage (42.4%) on the road. It held Phoenix, ranked ninth in offensive rating at home (119.5) to under 100 points. Even in its loss to Sacramento, the Thunder held the Kings to just 105 points. Sacramento averages 121.6 at home.
The catch in that last point is that OKC managed just 98 points in its loss against Sacramento. This is the second-fewest the team has scored all season. The Thunder got outscored 34-20 in the first quarter as the team hit just nine of its 27 field goals (1-of-11 from 3-points). Hence, the Thunder vs Kings odds have the Thunder as +115 underdogs.
If the Thunder are to win and beat the NBA spreads this time, they will have to start faster in Sacramento. Oklahoma City typically averages over 30 points in the first 12 minutes. But Sacramento puts up 31.4.
This is not a bad NBA pick today as the highest-scoring quarter. And given that both teams are in the top 10 in scoring, the total is set at a high of 241.5 points. Eight of Sacramento’s 10 home games have gone over the total partly due to bad defense. But it neutralized Oklahoma City before.
Kings Look to Shut Thunder Down Again
Sacramento Kings played a real defensive game in taking down the Thunder. Unfortunately, this looks like an aberration. The Kings rank in the bottom five in most defensive metrics when playing at home. The team allows over 120 points on average (27th) and a 49.7% field goal percentage (26th).
The Kings have allowed 120+ points at home in six of its 10 home games. Uncoincidentally, five of these went over the total. We may then point to the Thunder win as the visitors were half asleep when the game started. It happens.
“First-quarter defense, first-half offense, and movement just wasn’t where it needed to be,” Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault said about the loss. “They came out way more urgent in the game on both ends of the floor so they deserved that one.”
Domantas Sabonis, the Kings star center, also recorded a triple-double as the team won its first In-Season Tournament game. Maybe that factored into why Sacramento showed increased urgency as well.
Now, it’s just a plain old regular-season game. This is Sacramento’s first of six straight home games and against a team it already beat. There could be a danger of this team being a letdown on the NBA lines. After all, Oklahoma City did outscored Sacramento 56-52 in the second half of their first game.
If the Kings are to cover as favorites on the Thunder vs Kings odds, they will have to replicate what they did against Oklahoma City. Otherwise, they can look to outscore the Thunder. This is mainly the same team that led the league in scoring last season.
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