Timberwolves Off to Best Start in Franchise History, Visit Dallas
Timberwolves vs Mavericks Match Odds: Dallas Tabbed 2-Point Fav
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks are off to similarly hot starts, making Thursday’s matchup (8:30 p.m. ET) one of the most anticipated games on the NBA schedule.
As expected, oddsmakers anticipate a relatively close game. Dallas is a slight 1.5-point favorite on the NBA spread and -123 on the moneyline, with Minnesota priced at +103 to win outright. The projected total is 230.5.
Who has the edge? Read on as we break down both NBA teams and assess the Timberwolves vs Mavericks match odds.
Timberwolves vs Mavericks 
Day/Time:
Location: American Airlines Center; Dallas
Timberwolves vs Mavericks Betting Trends
The Minnesota Timberwolves are 11-10-1 ATS but have covered in just four of their 11 NBA games away from home. At the same time, they’ve gone Over the projected total eight times in that setting.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks are 13-10 ATS, including 5-6 at home. Dallas has gone Over the projected total in 17 of its 23 games, matching the second-highest rate (73.9%) in the NBA.
That’s important to remember when assessing the Timberwolves vs Mavericks match odds.
Timberwolves Surging out of the Gate
The Minnesota Timberwolves are off to their best start in franchise history, sitting atop the Western Conference at 17-5. Minnesota impressively has yet to lose back to back games, a streak that’ll be on the line Thursday against Dallas.
Minnesota is coming off a 121-107 loss to New Orleans on Monday. That snapped a six-game winning streak, which was bookended by blowout victories over Memphis.
Oddsmakers are still a bit leery despite Minnesota’s resurgence. The Timberwolves, with +1200 odds of making the NBA Finals, are still well down the pecking order in the Western Conference. According to NBA odds, Denver remains a +220 favorite, followed by Phoenix at +360 and Los Angeles at +750.
The Timberwolves are coming off consecutive NBA playoff appearances but haven’t gotten past the first round since 2003-04 under Flip Saunders. Last season, they went 42-40 and lost in the opening round to Denver, 4-1.
Minnesota has much going for it, including a legitimate No. 1 scorer in Anthony Edwards. Edwards — who missed Monday’s loss with a hip injury — is averaging 24.4 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists. He’s surrounded by a pair of perennial All-Star forwards in Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert, and a steady veteran point guard in Mike Conley.
With their help, the Timberwolves have beaten teams by an average of 6.8 points, the fourth-largest point differential in the NBA. Be sure to keep that in mind when analyzing the Timberwolves vs Mavericks match odds.
Luka Show Rolls On
At 15-8, the Dallas Mavericks are hot on Minnesota’s heels in the West. The Mavericks, winners of four straight, lead the Southwest Division standings and have seen their odds of winning the West climb to +1100.
Luka Doncic has been his usual dominant self, averaging 32.0 points (second in NBA), 8.9 assists and 8.2 rebounds. As such, some sportsbooks have priced him as high as +425 to win his first NBA MVP, behind only Nuggets star Nikola Jokic (+170).
With Kyrie Irving sidelined indefinitely with a foot injury, Doncic, a four-time All-Star, will be of even greater importance for Dallas. Despite being listed as questionable with a lower back contusion, Doncic started Tuesday’s 127-125 victory over the Lakers and outdueled LeBron James, scoring 33 points to go with 17 assists.
Dallas moved to 7-4 SU at home and 13-10 ATS, covering for the fourth straight game. The Mavericks also went Over the projected total for the fifth consecutive time, improving their record against the Over/Under to 8-3 at home and 17-6 overall. Only one team — 18-5 Indiana — has hit the Over at a higher rate.
It comes as no surprise then that Dallas ranks top 10 in the NBA in scoring, averaging 120.2 points. The Mavericks also lead the NBA with 16.3 3-pointers made per game.
Handicapping the Game
The Timberwolves are just 3-3 ATS as an underdog but have fared well on the road, going 7-4 SU. Now they head to face Doncic and the red-hot Mavericks. Will they have Edwards? The former No. 1 pick is questionable after sitting out Minnesota’s last game with a hip injury. His availability obviously looms large.
Minnesota has been one of the league’s best defensive teams, holding opponents to an average of 105.9 points. That ranks second to only Houston (105.5). Gobert, a three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year, has had a big hand in that. That should go a long way for the Timberwolves, even if Edwards doesn’t play.
But it goes without saying, the Timberwolves could use a ball-dominant scorer to go head to head with Doncic. Bettors should contine to monitor his status.
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