Timberwolves, Suns Clash in Star-Studded NBA Playoff Series
Timberwolves vs Suns Expert Pick: Minnesota -2 Favorite in Game 1
The stage is set. One of the most anticipated NBA playoff series will tip off Saturday when the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves host the sixth-seeded Phoenix Suns in Game 1 of the Western Conference first round.
Minnesota is a 2-point favorite and -120 on the moneyline to win Game 1, with Phoenix priced at +102 to win outright. The projected total is 217.
Still, the Suns are slight -118 favorites to win the series, with the Timberwolves checking in at +100.
What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down both NBA teams and assess the odds while giving our Timberwolves vs Suns expert pick.
Timberwolves vs Suns 
Day/Time:
Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Streaming: TBD
Timberwolves vs Suns Betting Trends
The Phoenix Suns are 35-45-2 against the spread, including 6-4 over their last 10 games. A majority of Phoenix’s games have trended toward the Under, as the Suns are 36-45-1 against the Over/Under. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves are 40-40-2 ATS, including 3-7 over their last 10 games. As for the Over/Under, the Timberwolves are 41-40-1.
Be sure to remember these betting trends when assessing our Timberwolves vs Suns expert pick.
Sun Setting on Phoenix?
Phoenix has struggled to match the expectations that came with its big offseason trade for Bradley Beal. The Suns sat at .500 30 games into the season and never really took off, finishing with a record of 49-33.
That was good for sixth in the Western Conference, though the Suns failed to hit their projected total win total of 51.5.
NBA injuries were mostly to blame, as Beal and Devin Booker—two-thirds of Phoenix’s Big Three with Kevin Durant—combined to miss 43 games.
The Suns struggled to find much cohesion with their lineup, and it showed. Interestingly, this is the highest they have been above .500 all season.
Oddsmakers have maintained a shred of optimism about Phoenix, pricing the Suns +850 to win the West and +1900 to win the NBA title. They are one of eight teams with 20/1 NBA championship odds or better, five of which reside in the West.
Fortunately for Phoenix, Beal appears to be healthy. The three-time All-Star is averaging 21.0 points on 59.6% shooting (69.4% from 3-point range) in eight games in April, a sign he’s fully healed from the back and ankle injuries that plagued him earlier this NBA season.
He’s logged at least 38 minutes four times, including in Sunday’s 125-106 victory over Minnesota. Beal finished with 36 points and knocked down all six 3-point attempts.
The Suns covered as 2.5-point underdogs and improved to 5-3 ATS this month, a significant improvement over their overall record ATS of 35-45-2. Only five teams have performed worse for bettors this season, three of which failed to make the NBA playoffs. Keep that in mind when analyzing our Timberwolves vs Suns expert pick.
Towns’ Return Key for T’Wolves
Minnesota quickly established itself as one of the top teams in the West and carried that momentum throughout much of the season.
The Minnesota Timberwolves started 20-5 en route to a 56-26 finish, their second most wins in franchise history (58-24 in 2003-04). As such, the Timberwolves blew past their projected win total of 43.5 with room to spare, covering on March 7.
Despite finishing with the No. 3 seed, Minnesota has the sixth shortest odds to win the West at +1000. The Timberwolves are also +2500 to win the NBA title, one of nine teams listed 25/1 or better. Thus, the Timberwolves obviously hold a lot of value from the betting standpoint.
Minnesota’s inability to maintain one of the top two seeds in the West makes its road more difficult. Phoenix, for instance, is significantly more talented than your typical sixth seed.
It certainly helps that Karl-Anthony Towns seems healthy again. The four-time All-Star returned Friday after missing 18 NBA games with a lateral meniscus tear in his left knee, scoring 11 points in 28 minutes. The Timberwolves went 12-6 in Towns’ absence, relying largely on Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert for production.
Edwards has carried the scoring load, averaging 25.9 points to place himself among the NBA leaders. He had a season-high 51 points earlier this month against Washington, topping his previous high of 44 points.
Minnesota is 40-40-2 ATS but has failed to cover in four straight games and is just 3-8 over its last 11. Given the team’s recent struggles, that bears watching.
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