Zig-Zag Theory Sports Betting Off to Fast Start
NBA Playoff Betting System Goes 7-3 in Early Going
One of sports betting’s oldest systems has made a bit of a resurgence in the past few seasons. Known as the “Zig-Zag Theory,” the method involves betting an NBA team in the playoffs that lost the last game. The system is believed to have been created by handicapper Tony Salinas and has been around since the 1970s. The Zig-Zag Theory sports betting method has also been used for betting the NHL playoffs.
The method started extremely hot, but as is often the case, lost effectiveness once it became well-known by the public. The sportsbooks started adjusting the spreads to compensate.
The Zig-Zag Theory sports betting method had some lean years recently, including a horrible 22-42 against the spread (ATS) record in the 2016-17 playoffs. Still, it remains one of the most popular betting strategies for the postseason.
The method began to make a comeback in the 2021-22 NBA playoffs. After seven consecutive losing seasons, the system went 40-34 ATS in the 2022 playoffs.
Not earth-shattering, but good enough to show a profit. To be fair, several of the seven straight losing seasons showed ATS records of 35-32 and 33-31-2. They didn’t yield much of a loss, but they yielded losses for the playoff season.
In the 2022-23 season, the method posted a 40-30-1 ATS record, which is pretty solid by any standard. Favorites performed much better, going 23-13 against the spread. Underdogs were 17-17-1 against the number. That follows the long-term results which show favorites have fared much better over the years.
Going back to the start of the 2001-02 NBA playoffs, the method is 737-709-17, which is a 51% winning rate and a long-term losing proposition. Favorites, however, are 360-281-10, which is 56.2% and shows a nice profit. Underdogs are just 367-410-7 (47.2%) against the NBA betting odds in that period.
Strong Start in the 2024 NBA Playoffs
It’s still pretty early in the NBA playoffs, but the Zig-Zag Theory sports betting method has shown a 7-3 ATS record. Favorites are a perfect 3-0 ATS, which does include the final play-in games for Miami and New Orleans.
With no play-in games when the method was first created, there’s no way of knowing if they would have been included. Although it’s hard to argue with the 4-0 ATS record the past two seasons of the losing team in the No. 7 vs No. 8 matchup.
All four wins have also come as favorites. The NBA scores have fallen the right way so far for users of the system, but it’s still not easy to use it as your sole method of handicapping.
NHL Playoffs Usage
The NHL may follow the same format as the NBA when it comes to playoff format, but that’s about the only similarity. The NBA uses the point spread, while the moneyline is the primary method of betting on the NHL.
Still, the Zig-Zag Theory has gone 667-614 since the start of the 2005-06 playoffs.
There are no ties in playoff hockey. With an average lay price of just -104.5, the method is showing a modest long-term profit. With the NHL, it’s the underdogs who have shown the profit even though they’re winning just 45.2% of the time.
This is due to the use of the moneyline and the fact underdogs are going off at an average of a little more than +140.
This season, the Zig-Zag Theory is off to a 5-4 start. Underdogs are 3-3 but are showing a higher profit than favorites, which are 2-1. The Kings +155 were one of the winners for the underdogs, while the favorite loss was Dallas -165 over Vegas.
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