2024 Conference USA Tournament Preview

Louisiana Tech Is A Heavy Favorite

March 11, 2024 87 4 minutes readNCAAB Picks & Parlays

2024 Conference USA Tournament Preview — John Fisher/Getty Images/AFP

Louisiana Tech
Liberty & Western Kentucky
Sam Houston
Everyone Else

Even after Sam Houston just edged out Louisiana Tech to take home the Conference USA men’s basketball regular season title this season, it is the Bulldogs who are heavily favored on the 2024 CUSA odds to win the Conference USA tournament which tips off on Tuesday night in Huntsville, Alabama.

The Sam Houston Bearkats had a sparkling 13-3 conference record but Louisiana Tech — as a top-100 KenPom team — is close to even-money to nab the automatic bid to the Big Dance.

Surprisingly, the Liberty Flames and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are both being given a better chance to win the tournament than Sam Houston despite finishing a couple of games back in the conference standings.

Beyond those top four teams, none of the conference’s remaining five schools are better than +1200 to run the table in Huntsville and earn a trip to the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

So, it’s a relatively top-heavy field but that means we should get some very interesting matchups between Conference USA’s most formidable squads in the semifinals and championship.

Due to massive realignment after last season, there’s a decent chance that a brand-new league member — Liberty or Sam Houston — will get its first title by Selection Sunday. Let’s run through the field and break down who’s worth betting on:

Louisiana Tech (+125)

The Bulldogs are a long-time Conference USA member at this point but have never won the conference tournament and, as a result, have not been in the NCAA Tournament since 1991.

The current 2024 CUSA odds really like their chances of ending that drought after a strong 22-9 season (12-4 in conference). Louisiana Tech did lose both of its games against Sam Houston in the regular season and split the season series with both Liberty and Western Kentucky, so they did struggle somewhat against the league’s better foes.

Talvin Hester’s team’s calling card is defense. The three-headed scoring attack of Isaiah Crawford, Daniel Batcho and Tahlik Chavez — all upperclassmen — helps the Bulldogs get by but what makes them a formidable group is how good they are at preventing the other side from scoring.

Louisiana Tech allows just 64.4 points per game (16th fewest in Division 1) and boasts the seventh-best defensive rating. That’s what stands out when looking at the NCAAB scores.

The bracket shakes out well for the Bulldogs as they open up with Middle Tennessee, who they beat twice in the regular season, and would then play the winner of Western Kentucky and New Mexico State. +125 isn’t much value, however, so if you take the Bulldogs you better be sure they’re going to win.

Liberty (+400) and Western Kentucky (+450)

The Flames (18-13; 7-9) and Hilltoppers (19-11; 8-8) can be grouped together because they were relatively middling teams in conference play but even as the No. 4 and No. 3 seed respectively, they have better 2024 CUSA odds than No. 1 seed Sam Houston.

Liberty opens up against UTEP who they were crushed by at home nine days ago but beat in a close game in El Paso back in February, while Western Kentucky has a much easier matchup with New Mexico State.

Liberty is a solid defensive team — 19th in the country with 65.5 points allowed per game — that is very dangerous from three-point range. The Flames shoot 36.6% from three and take nearly 28 triples a night, a top-20 figure nationally.

When they get hot, pun intended, they are a very tough out. Considering how fickle a single-elimination conference tournament can be, Liberty could be an interesting pick. The issue is they’re on Sam Houston’s side of the NCAAB bracket.

Western Kentucky is good in a different way. The Hilltoppers score over 80 points per game — 41st in the nation — and don’t have a particularly good defense or, outside of leading scorer Don McHenry, a ton of big playmakers.

What the Hilltoppers do have is depth. Steve Lutz’s rotation is consistently eight or nine deep and even McHenry averages only 27.7 minutes, the most on the team. Key rotation pieces play between 18 and 28 minutes per game, allowing them to stay fresh and making it so there isn’t a big dropoff from starters to bench guys.

The Hilltoppers have a chance because they aren’t so over-reliant on one or two guys.

Sam Houston (+500)

The college basketball standings might not indicate it but Sam Houston (20-11; 13-3) is the top seed in the conference tournament and should have a much better shot at making the Big Dance than it appears.

Interestingly, the Bearkats get to play the winner of the No. 8/No. 9 seed game between Jacksonville State and FIU when Sam Houston lost to those teams back-to-back in February before beating each of them at home later in the season.

The Bearkats won 13 of their 14 conference games outside of that two-game skid including both games against Louisiana State. Sam Houston’s issue is that they aren’t great in any particular aspect of the game and they depend heavily on top scorers Lamar Wilkerson and Davon Barnes.

The scoring drops off significantly after those two. On the other hand, the Bearkats enter the tournament having won seven games in a row so they’re playing their best ball at the right time. At +500, Sam Houston is worth taking a serious look at.

Everyone Else:

UTEP (+1200)
Jacksonville State (+2800)
New Mexico State (+5000)
Middle Tennessee State (+5000)
FIU (+12500)

It would be a real surprise if any of these five NCAAB teams won the tournament based on how the bracket is set up and with how all of them went under .500 in a relatively weak conference.

UTEP ended the season on a three-game winning streak — including that nice road win over Liberty — but the consistency isn’t there from the Miners who would potentially need to beat Liberty (again), Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech on three consecutive days. That looks to be rather unlikely.

For NCAAB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.