Montana State Faces Tough Road to Three-Peat in Big Sky Tourney
2024 Big Sky Conference Odds: Eastern Washington +200 Favorite
The Big Sky Conference Tournament tips off Saturday at Idaho Central Arena in Boise, ID. Eastern Washington, the tournament’s No. 1 seed and a +200 betting favorite, will play the following day.
Montana State has won the conference two straight college basketball seasons but faces a tough road to a three-peat as the No. 5 seed.
The championship game is slated for Wednesday at 11:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+ in Idaho, with the winner earning an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament. None of these schools are among the favorites to win March Madness, so this is clearly a one-bid league.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down the 2024 Big Sky Conference odds ahead of this weekend’s tip-offs.
THE FAVORITE
Eastern Washington (+200)
Eastern Washington went 21-10, including 15-3 in Big Sky Conference play, to secure the tournament’s No. 1 seed. The school last made the NCAA Tournament in 2021.
The Eagles, winners of four straight and eight of their last 10 games, are dynamic offensively. They are fourth nationally in field goal efficiency and 27th in scoring.
Ranking top 50 in adjusted tempo, it’s no wonder they like to get up and down the floor. At the same time, the Eagles are among the nation’s worst college basketball teams at defending the perimeter, so they are not without faults.
They typically play through forward Cedric Coward. The junior leads them in scoring (15.2 PPG), as well as rebounding, steals and blocks. He is averaging 23.2 points during the Eagles’ current four-game win streak and has four 25-point games this season, including a 30-point effort against Northern Colorado on Feb. 24.
The Eagles split a pair of games against Weber State and swept both Montana and Northern Colorado, so they have clearly shown an ability to beat the conference’s top teams. They are a projected No. 15 seed for March Madness games.
TOP CONTENDERS
Weber State (+300)
Despite being seeded fourth, Weber State has the second-best 2024 Big Sky Conference odds at +300. The Wildcats, the Big Sky’s best defensive team, won 20 games for the second time in three years and went 11-7 in conference play.
The Wildcats have one of the conference’s top overall college basketball players in Dillon Jones, who is averaging 20.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. Jones, a 6-foot-6 junior, has three 30-point games.
Weber State may have the flashiest resume in the Big Sky, highlighted by a 61-57 victory over No. 23 Saint Mary’s on Nov. 12. The Wildcats also have quality wins over Yale and South Dakota State.
The Wildcats haven’t gone dancing since 2016, but they are certainly capable of ending that drought if things break right.
Montana (+310)
Montana has played well of late, with five wins in its last six games. But it has not matched up well with the conference’s top teams, going just 1-5 against Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado, and Weber State.
The third-seeded Grizzlies (21-10, 12-6) are led by sixth-year senior Aanen Moody, who is averaging 16.6 points on 48.4% shooting, including 38.4% from 3. Freshman Money Williams (13.4 PPG) has emerged as strong complementary scorer.
Montana posted the league’s second-best point differential at plus-6.0. It also boasts strong metrics, ranking 82 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Northern Colorado (+550)
Steve Smiley oversaw one of the Big Sky’s best turnarounds, guiding Northern Colorado to 19 wins and the conference’s No. 2 seed. That’s a seven-win improvement over last season.
Northern Colorado is dynamic offensively, ranking second in the conference in scoring (80.4 PPG). Loyola-Illinois transfer Saint Thomas is averaging 20.8 points and 10 rebounds. Dejour Reaves is contributing 14.7 points per game, making the Bears one of two schools with multiple top-10 scorers. One of the two has been the Bears’ top scorer in 25 of their 31 games.
Ranked 62nd in the country in tempo, the Bears will push the pace offensively but not to their own detriment.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
Montana State (+1600)
Montana State is the two-time defending Big Sky champion but went just 14-17 (9-9) under new coach Matt Logie. As the No. 5 seed, it will face Weber State in the third round on Monday.
The Bobcats beat Weber State 76-64 last Monday and own a win over Eastern Washington, their potential opponent in the semifinals.
Point being, don’t put too much stock in the Bobcats’ subpar record. On the heels of back-to-back titles, they will be a dangerous out.
Guard Robert Ford III is their top scorer, averaging 15.3 points along with 7.7 rebounds and 2.9 steals.
Portland State (+1700)
Portland State had to settle for the No. 6 seed after dropping six of its last nine games. The Vikings (17-14, 8-10) ended their three-game slide with a 72-57 win over Idaho on Monday.
The Vikings do not pack much offensive punch. Forward and Texas Tech transfer KJ Allen (13.4 PPG) is their only player averaging double figures in scoring. Ranked 294th in adjusted offensive efficiency, the Vikings will need their defense to step up.
And even that might not be enough.
LONGSHOT
Idaho State (+2500)
Idaho State (12-19, 7-11) faces a daunting road as the No. 8 seed, needing to win four games in five days to earn an automatic NCAA Tournament bid. That is hard to see, especially given its struggles of late.
The Bengals, who face No. 7 Northern Arizona on Saturday, have dropped five of their last six games. That includes a 92-88 double-overtime loss to NAU on Feb. 29.
March can be unpredictable, but Idaho State sure hasn’t inspired much confidence. Hence the 25/1 2024 Big Sky Conference odds.
Center Brayden Parker is the team’s top scorer (14.8) and rebounder (5.8).
Rest of the Field: Northern Arizona (+10000), Idaho (+10000), Sacramento State (+20000)
For March Madness scores, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
