Indiana State, Drake, Bradley in Mix to Win Arch Madness
2024 Missouri Valley Conference Odds: Indiana St. +160 Favorite
The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament — commonly known as Arch Madness — tips off Thursday in St. Louis.
Regular-season champion Indiana State is the top seed, but it will face strong competition from defending champion Drake, the No. 2 seed. The top four seeds, including Bradley and Northern Iowa, will receive byes to Friday’s quarterfinals. The final is slated for Saturday at 2 p.m. ET on CBS, with the winner earning an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Indiana State is the +160 betting favorite. Four others are priced at 15/1 or better.
Can the Sycamores handle business? Read on as we breakdown the favorites and assess the 2024 Missouri Valley Conference odds.
THE FAVORITE
Indiana State (+160)
Indiana State claimed the top seed after a spectacular season in which it won 26 games and went 17-3 in Missouri Valley Conference play. The Sycamores cracked the AP Top 25 poll in February, the school’s first ranking since reaching No. 1 in 1978-79 with Larry Bird.
Winners of four straight and 13 of their last 15 games, the Sycamores boast the 26th-best offense per KenPom. Their defense is no slouch either, ranking inside the top 100. As such, they lead the conference with a plus-12.5 points differential.
The Sycamores — who get a bye to Friday’s quarterfinals as the top seed — typically play through Robbie Avila. The 6-foot-10 center averages 17.6 points on 55.6% shooting to go with 6.9 rebounds. He’s scored at least 22 points in four of his last five games and has five games with 25 points or more.
An automatic bid is likely Indiana State’s only path to the NCAA Tournament. But it certainly can make noise if it qualifies. Currently, the Sycamores are listed at +20000 odds to win March Madness.
TOP CONTENDERS
Drake (+210)
Drake is the biggest threat to Indiana State, having won this tournament last season with the same primary contributors. The Bulldogs (25-6, 16-4) split a pair of meetings with Indiana State, having won 89-78 on Jan. 10 and lost 75-67 on Feb. 3.
Drake Bulldogs has a clear go-to player in guard Tucker DeVries, who is averaging 21.9 points on 44.8% shooting to go with 6.9 rebounds and 1.7 steals. DeVries is the reigning MVC Larry Bird Trophy winner, given to the league’s best player. He combined for 55 points against the Sycamores this year.
Guard Atin Wright, a transfer from Cal State Northridge, has emerged as a solid complementary scorer (13.7 PPG).
The Bulldogs will continue to lean on their offense, which is ranked 37th in the country per KenPom.
Bradley (+350)
Bradley Braves stumbled in the MVC Tournament last season, losing in the semifinals after claiming the regular-season title. As a result, the Braves landed in the NIT.
Can they redeem themselves?
As the No. 3 seed, the Braves (21-10, 13-7) will get a bye to Friday’s quarterfinals. Both Indiana State and Drake swept them but did pick up a few impressive non-conference wins, knocking off both No. 22 Utah State and Vermont during a two-week span in November. That carries a lot of weight.
Bradley also boasts solid metrics — No. 77 in adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency — so many will look to the Braves as a strong value at +350.
Guards Duke Deen, Connor Hickman and forward Malevy Leons are the Braves’ top scorers, each averaging between 14.3 and 14.1 points.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
Northern Iowa (+1100)
After a tough stretch to close February, Northern Iowa responded by winning six of its final eight games to lock up the No. 4 seed and a first-round bye. Included in that strong finish were victories over Bradley on Feb. 18 and Drake on Feb. 24.
Ranking 236th in adjusted tempo, the Northern Iowa Panthers play at a slower-than-average tempo. Despite that, they’re still averaging 73.5 points, fifth-most in the MVC. An efficient 46.2% shooting percentage certainly helps.
Guard Nate Heise is Northern Iowa’s top scorer (13.6 PPG), but he was held to seven points in the last two games.
The Panthers face a difficult road to the final, having to play potentially both Indiana State and Drake. So, it is no surprise their 2024 Missouri Valley Conference odds are at 11/1.
Belmont (+1500)
Belmont has won seven of their last eight games, with the lone loss coming Feb. 21 at Drake.
The Bruins (19-12, 12-8) face an uphill battle as the No. 5 seed, needing to win four games in four days to steal the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. That’s a lot to ask, especially given the strength atop the league. Then again, there is something to be said about momentum.
Belmont Bruins, ranked 99th in adjusted offensive efficiency, is led in scoring by guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie. The sophomore averaged 17.5 points in 23 games.
LONGSHOT
Southern Illinois (+2200)
Sure, Southern Illinois is a 22/1 longshot. But the sixth-seeded Salukis (19-12, 11-9) did upset Indiana State last month, ending their 17-game skid against ranked opponents. So clearly, there’s potential.
All the focus will be on guard Xavier Johnson. The senior ranks top five in the country in scoring, averaging 22.0 points. He had six 30-point games, including a season-high 38-point effort in a loss to then-No. 22 James Madison on Nov. 21.
Murray State (+4000)
Murray State Racers has dropped four of its last five games and sits well under .500 in the college basketball standings at 12-19, including 9-11 in MVC play. Thus, it is hard seeing the eighth-seeded Racers having much of a chance. It just is.
Rest of the 2024 Missouri Valley Conference odds: Missouri State (+9000), UIC (+20000), Illinois State (+20000), Evansville (+25000), Valparaiso (+50000)
For college basketball lines, betting analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
