2024 Southern Conference Odds: Tournament Wide Open
Samford Favored With Five Teams at Odds of +550 or Lower
Some college basketball conferences have an odds-on favorite to win the conference tournament. The Southern Conference isn’t one of them, however, as there are five teams at odds of +550 or lower. Samford, the regular season champion, is rightly the favorite, but there are no guarantees the Bulldogs win.
This is a team that lost their second-to-last game by 22 points. The Southern Conference Tournament will be played in Harrah’s Cherokee Center, Asheville, N.C. beginning Friday. The 2024 Southern Conference odds show a tournament that is up for grabs and it’s hard to disagree.
Samford Bulldogs (+150)
The 2024 Southern Conference odds on the Bulldogs aren’t too bad, considering Samford won the regular season title by three games. Samford finished 15-3 in conference games, with Greensboro and Chattanooga both going 12-6 to place second. The Bulldogs lost to three different conference teams on the road.
Samford has the No. 1 offense in the conference, according to the KenPom rankings 2023-2024. The Bulldogs are pretty solid all-around offensively and have the best effective field goal percentage in the Southern Conference. Samford is No. 2 in 2- and 3-point shooting and do a good job of getting to the foul line.
The Bulldogs are ranked No. 2 in the conference defensive efficiency ratings, but that’s a little generous. The Bulldogs get credit for being tops in the conference in steals and are No. 2 in blocks. Samford really doesn’t defend that well, however, and the Bulldogs are No. 7 in effective field goal percentage and allow too many offensive rebounds.
UNC Greensboro Spartans (+450)
The 2024 Southern Conference odds of +450 on the Spartans to win the conference tournament make a lot of sense. Although Greensboro and Chattanooga tied for second in the regular season, the Spartans received the No. 2 seed. That will give them an easier game in the first round.
Offensively, the Spartans are going to live or die with the 3-pointer. UNC Greensboro takes 43.6% of its field goal attempts behind the 3-point line and makes a conference-best 41.6%. When the Spartans are knocking down the outside shots, they can be tough to beat.
As a result of shooting so many 3-pointers, Greensboro doesn’t get to the foul line often.
Greensboro isn’t bad defensively. The team allows too many offensive rebounds and sends teams to the foul line often, but the Spartans can defend. Greensboro is No. 2 in effective field goal percentage and No. 2 defending the 3-pointer. The Spartans force a fair number of turnovers.
Furman Paladins (+550)
Furman finished 10-8 in conference play during the year, but has a tough first-round game with Western Carolina. The Paladins are a little bit hit-or-miss in they do some things well and they do some things rather poorly.
Offensively, Furman doesn’t shoot the ball that well. The Paladins are No. 6 in the Southern Conference in effective field goal percent. Furman is better shooting from the inside than the outside and protects the ball well. The Paladins are No. 7 in 3-point shooting, but are solid from the foul line.
Furman’s defense is also No. 6 in effective field goal percent, although the team does a good job of not allowing offensive rebounds. That helps make up for the fact the Paladins allow opposing teams to shoot 51.2% from 2-point range.
Western Carolina (+550)
The Catamounts were 11-7 in conference play, with six losses coming by six points or less, including a pair of overtime games. Western Carolina only won two conference games by six or fewer points, so it needs to do better in the close games.
On offense, the Catamounts are terrible for 2-point range, but can knock down the 3-pointer. Western Carolina doesn’t make many turnovers, but doesn’t get that many offensive rebounds. The Catamounts don’t shoot as many 3-pointers as you would expect considering their struggles from 2-point range.
Western Carolina is No. 1 in defensive efficiency despite being dinged for not forcing turnovers. The Catamounts are last in the conference in forcing turnovers, but that’s really their only weakness. Western Carolina allows just 45.3% shooting from 2-point range, best in the conference.
Chattanooga Mocs (+550)
The Mocs may have the third seed in the conference tournament, but find themselves lumped in with two other teams at +550. Chattanooga did lose three conference games at home and on the road this season. Another home win would have given the Mocs the No. 2 seed.
Chattanooga is No. 2 in the conference’s offensive efficiency ratings. The Mocs can shoot the 2-pointer, but that’s pretty much it. Chattanooga makes too many turnovers, doesn’t get to the foul line or grab offensive rebounds. Although, when you’re making 58.4% on your 2-point field goals, you can have some weak spots.
On defense, the Mocs are pretty average. They defend the 2-pointer well, but don’t force many turnovers and allow 35.5% on 3-pointers. Chattanooga is above average preventing offensive rebounds.
Who to Bet On?
There are really two ways of looking at the Southern Conference tournament. You can play Samford at +150 knowing the Bulldogs won the regular season by three games. It’s hard to argue with that logic.
You can also look to one of the higher-priced teams and try to decide which one has the best chance of seeing March Madness odds posted after the Southern Conference Tournament.
It will most likely be a one-and-done in the NCAA Tournament, since the opening game will likely be against a team with March Madness Final Four potential.
Looking at the next four teams after Samford, the one that stands out a little above the others is Western Carolina. The Catamounts are the best defensive team in the conference and defense is usually more consistent than offense.
If the Catamounts can knock down a few 3-pointers, they could be tough to beat and are worth a shot at +550 to win the tournament.
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