2024 WCC Tournament Odds: Zags, St. Mary’s Favored
West Coast Conference Looks Like Two-Team Battle
The West Coast Conference basketball season has been a two-team race from the start. There’s no reason why the conference tournament should be any different. St. Mary’s and Gonzaga are easily the two best teams in the WCC. San Francisco and Santa Clara are the next two.
Then there’s a huge drop-off to the likes of Loyola-Marymount, San Diego, and the rest of the field. The Gaels and Bulldogs should both land in the March Madness brackets regardless of what happens here. The 2024 WCC Tournament odds have Gonzaga as small favorites, closely followed by St. Mary’s. San Francisco and Santa Clara are the only two other teams lower than +15000.
Gonzaga Bulldogs (-125)
Gonzaga find itself in the favorite’s role and it’s hard to argue otherwise. For all the talk about how this was a down year for the Bulldogs, they lost two conference games by a total of three points. The NCAAB scores showed Gonzaga turned around and won the rematches by 13 points each time. The Bulldogs were 14-15 against the spread, indicating they were a little over-valued on the betting market.
The KenPom offensive efficiency ratings have the Bulldogs No. 1 in WCC games. Gonzaga led the conference in 2-point shooting percentage, effective field goal percent, and turnovers. The Bulldogs were in the top two or three in the majority of the other offensive categories.
Gonzaga’s defense is No. 2 in the conference. The Bulldogs led the WCC in 2-point defense and blocked shots but were in the top two or three in most defensive categories. The defense gets overshadowed by the offense, although it’s not bad at all.
St. Mary’s Gaels (+105)
The 2024 WCC Tournament odds have St. Mary’s at +105. The Gaels saw their dreams of a perfect conference record shot down by Gonzaga over the weekend. The Bulldogs led 44-28 at halftime and cruised to the win. The big question is how the Gaels will respond should the teams meet again, which they should.
St. Mary’s is No. 2 in the KenPom offensive efficiency rankings. The Gaels are best in the conference in 3-pointers, knocking down 41.2% in WCC play. St. Mary’s is strong on the offensive boards and doesn’t make many turnovers. There aren’t any real offensive weaknesses for the Gaels.
It’s the defense that really shines for St. Mary’s in conference games. The Gaels are No. 1 in efficiency rankings and in the top two in nearly all of the critical areas. St. Mary’s gets an advantage of playing at a slower pace than others, but the defense still does its job each possession.
San Francisco Dons (+1100)
The 2024 WCC Tournament odds have the Dons a distant third, which is about right. San Francisco is a good team, but not a great one. That’s why the KenPom ratings have it 7.5 points behind St. Mary’s. Even though the Dons are 22-9 entering the tournament, a trip to the NCAA Tournament is highly unlikely unless they can pull off a pair of upsets and win the WCC tourney.
The Dons are No. 3 in both the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Unlike the top two teams, San Francisco does show some major weaknesses in a few areas, although for the most part, the Dons are at the top of the conference in the key offensive and defensive metrics.
Santa Clara Broncos (+2500)
The 2024 WCC Tournament oddsare showing the Broncos at +2500, which makes sense, but is a little bit on the low side. Santa Clara is in the same boat as San Francisco, but its not quite as good as the Dons. The Broncos are No. 4 in KenPom’s WCC offensive and defensive efficiency rankings.
The strength of the offensive is grabbing offensive rebounds and getting second chances. The Broncos don’t shoot the 3-pointer well but are decent enough on the inside. On defense, Santa Clara is No. 1 defending the 3-pointer, but doesn’t force a lot of turnovers and sends teams to the foul line too often.
Who to Bet On?
It’s hard to see the WCC Tournament play out any other way than a third game between Gonzaga and St. Mary’s this season. Santa Clara and San Francisco aren’t pushovers and will put up a fight, but neither are in the same tier as the Bulldogs or Gaels. The NCAAB scoreboard should reflect that when the teams meet.
As the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament, the Bulldogs will have to play San Francisco in the semifinals. The college basketball predictions have the Bulldogs winning by 10. St. Mary’s is roughly 13 points better than Santa Clara, so a huge upset is the only thing preventing the two from meeting in the finals.
Gonzaga should be the slightest of favorites in the final. The KenPom rankings have the Bulldogs three points better than the Gaels in what could be a great game.
This is a spot where you can’t really play one of the longshots, knowing how much better the two favorites are. Playing the favorite is never ideal, but the Bulldogs -125 are probably the right side in the WCC Tournament.
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