March Madness Round 1: Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary’s Lines & Score
Lopes Are A Popular Upset Pick
Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary’s Final Score
Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary’s Preview
For the third time in four seasons under Bryce Drew, the Grand Canyon Antelopes are in the NCAA Tournament but they’re still looking for their first tourney win in school history.
They won’t have an easy time in their first-round matchup against the Saint Mary’s Gaels, a perennial March Madness fixture from the West Coast Conference. The Gaels are a No. 5 seed for the third-straight season but will be looking to advance past the second round for the first time since 2010.
The Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary’s lines like the Gaels’ chances of doing so.
It was a magical season for both Grand Canyon and Saint Mary’s. Each team won its conference’s regular season and tournament titles, with Saint Mary’s not having done so since 2012 when Matthew Dellavedova was leading the way.
Usually, Gonzaga dominates the conference, but that was not the case in the 2023-24 campaign. The Lopes lost only four games all season and were a perfect 16-0 at home. So, this is shaping up to be one of the best March Madness today games of the Friday slate.
The Gaels are favored by 5.5 points, which seems fair based on the respective resumes of these NCAAB teams. There is some public momentum behind Grand Canyon as a popular upset pick, but Saint Mary’s is a solid, well-balanced team with one of the best defenses in the country, so you should think twice before going against the Gaels.
The over is a pretty low 131.5 points, and Saint Mary’s is -220 on the moneyline while the Lopes are +180.
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs Saint Mary’s Gaels 
Day/Time:
Location: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena; Spokane, WA
Streaming: truTV
Tough To Score On The Gaels
While Saint Mary’s does have some solid scorers — and the West Coast Conference Player of the Year in Augustas Marciulionis — the Gaels hang their respective hats on the defensive side of things. Randy Bennett‘s team is 16th in defensive efficiency per KenPom and has the fourth-best defensive rating in the country.
Sure, that is partially due to Saint Mary’s playing at one of the slowest paces in Division 1 (358th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo.
Still, though, as the Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary’s lines recognize, playing at a slow pace doesn’t automatically ensure that a team will grade out well in its defensive metrics.
The fact that Saint Mary‘s slows the game down and still is elite at preventing points on a per-possession basis shows that the Gaels don’t make defensive mistakes in the halfcourt. Accordingly, they really force their opponents to make things happen in order to score.
The Gaels are also a really good rebounding team, so they not only get stops but also finish possessions. You have to really earn your buckets against them.
Grand Canyon Attacks The Rim
Tyon Grant-Foster (19.8 points per game), Rayshon Harrison (13.7), and Gabe McGlothan (13.0) produce the lion’s share of Grand Canyon’s points. All three can make threes, but none are particularly effective at doing so.
Where the Lopes shine is at the rim and that’s true for Grant-Foster, Harrison and McGlothan.
When looking at NCAA basketball scores for Grand Canyon, what immediately comes to attention is how often the Lopes shoot free throws. They average over 25 attempts per game, which is 7th in the country. At a 75.3% conversion rate, they’re also pretty efficient at the charity stripe.
So, the Lopes score nearly 80 points a night despite not being a great shooting team.
Unsurprisingly, their aggressive often forces their opposition into foul trouble, requiring them to dip deeper into their bench for fresh NCAAB players. Grand Canyon’s opponents average 20 personal fouls per game which is a big number for a college team. Saint Mary’s doesn’t have a particularly big rotation so the Gaels need to be careful.
Lopes Will Keep It Close
Admittedly, there is some blowout potential for this game based on the Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s lines, given how disciplined and smart Saint Mary’s is on defense and how much Grand Canyon needs to get to the free-throw line in order to score points.
But, as mentioned above, 5.5 points is a lot for a spread between good mid-major opponents, even if the WCC is a much stronger conference than the WAC.
So, look for Grand Canyon to at least keep this game competitive even if they aren’t able to win. The Lopes should be able to cover on 5.5 points. Also, consider taking the under. Saint Mary’s will limit the amount of possessions either team has which will really cut down on the potential total.
Grand Canyon has scorers but won’t be able to put up the kinds of offensive numbers they’re used to doing in the WAC. The under is a good NCAA basketball pick today.
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