2024 Sun Belt Conference Odds: James Madison Favored
Sun Belt Conference Tournament Looks Like Two-Team Battle
The 2024 Sun Belt Conference Tournament begins on Tuesday in Pensacola, Florida. It will be the lower-seeded teams taking the court first, as the conference field gets whittled down ahead of the tournament final, March 11.
The top four seeds don’t start play until Saturday. It looks to be a two-team battle between James Madison and Appalachian State for the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Either team will definitely be a longshot in the odds to win March Madness, but they have to get there first. The 2024 Sun Belt Conference odds reflect the strength of the two top seeds.
James Madison Dukes (+135)
The Dukes are the tournament favorites despite losing to Appalachian State twice and ending up as the No. 2 seed. James Madison is 28-3 on the season and brings a 10-game winning streak into the tournament.
The Dukes are solid offensively and defensively and are ranked No. 2 in the KenPom offensive and defensive ratings for conference games. James Madison shoots a conference-best 53.6% from 2-point range. The 3-point shooting isn’t bad at 35% and the Dukes take care of the basketball and grab some offensive rebounds.
On defense, the James Madison Dukes can force some turnovers and does a solid job at preventing offensive rebounds. The Dukes allow 48.8% on 2-point shots, which is No. 6 in the Sun Belt. The 2024 Sun Belt Conference odds don’t offer a lot of value on the Dukes at +135.
Appalachian State Mountaineers (+210)
Defense is the name of the game for the Mountaineers. Appalachian State is ranked No. 1 in the Sun Belt Conference and No. 26 in the nation by KenPom. The Mountaineers don’t force many turnovers, but they do keep you from scoring. Appalachian State Mountaineers holds conference teams to 43.2% on 2-pointers and 30.3% on 3-pointers.
The offense is a little above average, however, the Mountaineers make too many turnovers and are dreadful from the foul line. That could come back to haunt them in the case of a close game. The team is solid from the field and can grab some offensive rebounds.
Troy Trojans (+650)
The 2024 Sun Belt Conference odds show a significant drop-off to the Trojans and that’s probably justified. The Trojans finished three games behind Appalachian State in the standings and two games behind James Madison. The Trojans are No. 3 in the KenPom efficiency ratings for both offense and defense.
Troy doesn’t shoot the ball that well from the field, but is No. 1 in the Sun Belt when it comes to grabbing offensive rebounds.
It’s hit or miss for the Trojans on defense. Troy is No. 1 in the conference at forcing turnovers and No. 2 in 2-point defense. The Trojans are No. 12 in 3-point defense, allowing offensive rebounds and sending teams to the foul line. Troy does some things well and struggles in other areas.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (+1000)
Louisiana is a better defense team than it is on offense, but still has a few defensive weaknesses. The Ragin’ Cajuns are No. 13 in 2-point defense at 52.6% allowed. The 3-point defense is best in the conference at 26.6%. Louisiana was also No. 2 in forcing turnovers, but last in the conference in sending teams to the foul line.
Offensively, Louisiana is solid from 2-point range and the foul line, but struggles from the outside. The Cajuns are going to have to a better job getting to the foul line.
Arkansas State Red Wolves (+1000)
The Red Wolves can score. Arkansas State has KenPom’s No. 1 offense in the country. Arkansas State is a solid shooting team and keeps turnovers down. The Red Wolves do slow the tempo down a little bit, which helps in that regard. The primary weakness for the team is at the foul line, where they are No. 10 in the conference.
The Arkansas State defense is pretty dismal. The Red Wolves allow a conference-high 37.2% on 3-pointers. Arkansas State isn’t bad against the 2-pointer, but that’s about it when it comes to defense. The Red Wolves don’t force many turnovers and allow too many offensive rebounds.
Who to Bet On?
The 2024 Sun Belt Conference odds essentially show two favorites for a good reason. JMU and Appalachian State are easily the two best teams in the conference. The KenPom rankings have both teams more than 6.5 points better than any other team in the conference.
The Mountaineers are 19-10 against the NCAAB scores and odds this season and 16-9 when favored. Appalachian State can get the job done when expected to, although James Madison isn’t bad at 17-13 ATS. The Dukes are 15-12 ATS when favored.
The bracket is set-up where Appalachian State will face Arkansas State and James Madison will face Troy, as long as the top-seeded NCAAB teams get the job done. The Mountaineers should have an easier time advancing to the final, but JMU is a better team than the Trojans.
The two favorites should meet for the title. This one could come down to the old adage of it being hard to beat a team three times in a season. The Mountaineers won a pair of close games against the Dukes in the regular season.
James Madison is more than capable of extracting revenge should they meet again, but the odds are tough to take. There are far worse NCAAB bets you could make than to take Appalachian State at +210 to win the Sun Belt Conference Tournament.
For NCAAB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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