Minnesota vs Purdue Preview: A Deep Dive into the Big Ten Showdown
Analyzing Betting Odds, Team Strategies, and Key Players Ahead of the Clash
The Purdue Boilermakers keep piling up wins as they set their sights on a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The goal, of course, is to avenge last year’s postseason failures. However, the Boilermakers must first take care of what’s remaining on their NCAAB regular-season schedule, starting Thursday (8:30 p.m. ET) against Big Ten Conference foe Minnesota.
The second-ranked Boilermakers are 16.5-point favorites and -1650 on the moneyline, with Minnesota priced +950 to pull off the upset. Meanwhile, the projected total is 146.5, with a slight lean to the Over at -118 odds.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down the odds in our Minnesota vs Purdue preview.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers 
Day/Time:
Location:Â Mackey Arena; West Lafayette, Ind.
Streaming: Big Ten Network
Betting Trends
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are an NCAA-best 19-3-1 ATS, including 5-1 away from home. The Golden Gophers are also 12-11 against the Over/Under, having gone Over the total in five of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Purdue Boilermakers 15-8-1 ATS, including 7-5 at home. As for the Over/Under, their record is 16-8.
Be sure to remember these trends when assessing the betting odds in our Minnesota vs Purdue preview.
Gophers ‘Golden’ for Bettors
Minnesota has won three of its last four games but is coming off a 90-85 loss to Iowa on Sunday in which it blew a 20-point lead. That dropped the Golden Gophers to 15-8, including 6-6 in Big Ten Conference play, on the season.
The Golden Gophers don’t have any marquee wins, but they did beat potential NCAA Tournament teams in Northwestern and Michigan State. They’re 76th in KenPom, ranking 93rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 62nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Despite that, Minnesota projects merely as a bubble team for the NCAAB bracket.
Minnesota plays through 6-foot-11 junior Dawson Garcia, who leads the team in scoring (17.3 PPG) and rebounds (6.6). Garcia has scored at least 18 points in five of the last seven games, during which the Golden Gophers are just 3-4. Freshman Cam Christie and Pepperdine transfer Mike Mitchell Jr. are also double-figure scorers, averaging 11.3 points and 10.3 points, respectively.
The Golden Gophers are shooting just 34.7% from three according to college basketball stats, meaning they get a majority of their points in the paint. They tend to play at a slow tempo, ranking just 246th in average offensive possession length.
Minnesota has been the most profitable team for bettors, covering in an NCAA-best 82.6% of its games. It’s 5-7 OU but 10-2 ATS as an underdog, including 2-0 ATS when the spread hits double hits. The Golden Gophers have covered in six straight games and 15 of their last 17. Keep that in mind when analyzing the betting odds in our Minnesota vs Purdue preview.
National Title or Bust for Purdue
At 22-2 (11-2) and ranked No. 2 in the AP poll, Purdue has solidified itself as a legitimate national championship contender. The Boilermakers have won seven straight and are coming off a 79-59 rout of Indiana on Saturday in which they covered as 17-point favorites.
In addition to being -3000 Big Ten favorites, the Boilermakers are also +160 to make the Final Four and +650 to win the national championship. That matches top-ranked UConn for the shortest title odds. The Boilermakers are a No. 1 seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest NCAA Tournament projections for ESPN.
Purdue’s resume is nearly impeccable, with its lone blemishes being road losses to Northwestern and Nebraska. It’s beaten six teams currently ranked in the Top 25, including No. 8 Tennessee, No. 4 Marquette, No. 15 Alabama, No. 5 Arizona, No. 14 Illinois and No. 20 Wisconsin.
The Boilermakers are also No. 2 in KenPom and rank second in adjusted offensive efficiency and 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Purdue has one of the most dominant forces in the country in Zach Edey. The 7-4 senior ranks third nationally in both points (23.3) and rebounds (11.7) and is shooting 62%. He’s also an overwhelming favorite to win back-to-back Naismith Player of the Year awards. He’s joined in double figures by Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones, Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer.
Their contributions have brought Purdue’s offense to another level. The Boilermakers rank fifth in both scoring (85.1) and 3-point shooting (40%) and seventh in assist rate (18.3). They’re beating teams by an average of 15.5 points.
Purdue has been favored in nearly every game this season, with the exception of a 92-84 win over Arizona in which it was a 2-point underdog. As a double-digit favorite, the Boilermakers are 6-7 ATS and 13-0 OU.
Handicapping the Game
Minnesota will try its hand at defending Edey, who’s scored 26 points or more in six of the last eight games. Edey also has eight consecutive double-doubles and 17 on the season. Getting Edey the ball will be a focal point for the Boilermakers, but don’t overlook the potential impact of their backcourt. The Golden Gophers rank just 194th at defending the 3, so Smith and Loyer may both play big roles.
The Boilermakers are 12-0 at home, with 10 of those wins coming by double digits.
For NCAAB odds, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
