March Madness Elite Eight: NC State vs Duke Betting Analysis & Score
Can Wolfpack Continue Post-Season Magic?
NC State vs Duke Final Score
NC State vs Duke Preview
NC State and Duke have guaranteed at least one ACC team will reach the Final Four. The two will meet in the South Region championship game on Sunday. Despite being a No. 4 seed, the Blue Devils aren’t a huge surprise. That’s not the case with NC State, which won its sixth game as an underdog since the regular season ended.
The teams have met twice this season, with the Blue Devils winning 79-64 in the regular season and the Wolfpack upsetting Duke 74-69 in the ACC Tournament. The NC State vs Duke betting lines have the Blue Devils favored by 6.5 with a total of 143.
NC State Wolfpack vs Duke Blue Devils 
Day/Time:
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Streaming: CBS
NC State Plays Best When it Matters
The Wolfpack have been the Cinderella story of the postseason so far, but the clock usually strikes midnight at some point for these teams. NC State has knocked off UNC, Duke and Marquette on its way to the Elite Eight. A second win over Duke isn’t going to come easy.
With the win over Marquette, NC State is now 19-19-1 against the odds this season and 11-6 as an underdog. The Wolfpack is 22-15-2 in totals.
The best thing you can say about the Wolfpack offense is it takes care of the basketball. NC State doesn’t make many turnovers, but it doesn’t shoot particularly well. The Wolfpack ranks No. 154 in the KenPom effective field goal percentage ratings.
NC State is a little above average shooting 3-pointers, but below average on 2-point attempts. The team is pretty average on the offensive glass and gets to the foul line about as much as an average team.
NC State has been playing solid defense in the postseason and needs that to continue to have a chance against Duke. Defense wasn’t a strength of the Wolfpack during the season, but they’ve picked it up a notch.
NC State hasn’t allowed more than 67 points in regulation through their first three tournament games. On the season, NC State is slightly above above average defending the 2- and 3-pointer.
Blue Devils Do Enough to Win
Duke may have caught a break when Jamal Shead was injured for Houston, but it makes no difference on the scoreboard. The Blue Devils did what was needed for an ugly 54-51 win. Neither team shot the ball well, although it was predicted to be a defensive struggle.
Duke is now 22-13-1 against the spread and 14-21 in totals. The Blue Devils have been much better ATS as a favorite during the season. Duke has been a good team when seeking revenge for a previous loss, but is just .500 ATS in the spot the last three years.
The Blue Devils are one of the best shooting teams in the country. Duke ranks No. 19 in KenPom’s effective field goal percentage. The Blue Devils hit 38% of 3-pointers on the season and 54% from 2-point range. Duke doesn’t make a lot of turnovers and is solid at grabbing offensive rebounds. The Blue Devils do see some shots blocked, but that hasn’t been enough to slow down the offense.
Duke is solid defensively, although the defense gets overshadowed by the offense at times. The Blue Devils haven’t allowed more than 55 points in the tournament, although the competition plays a part in that. Duke doesn’t have any real weaknesses on defense, ranking well above average in most of the categories.
That’s a key factor why the NC State vs Duke betting lines have the Wolfpack with a team total of 68.5 points.
What to Expect
Unlike most games at this point of the season, this one sees two teams who have played each other twice. In Duke’s win, the Blue Devils outshot the Wolfpack 68-56 thanks to 19 offensive rebounds and just five turnovers. The Blue Devils scored 1.34 points per possessions compared to 1.08 for NC State.
Duke had a 65-61 shot advantage in the ACC Tournament, but was 5 for 20 on 3-pointers. The Wolfpack scored 1.06 points per possession compared to .99 for Duke.
The college basketball predictions will have about 1.07 points per possession for NC State in this game. The Blue Devils are a little more unpredictable. Duke averages out at 1.175 points per possessions, although there’s quite a range in the two games.
Who to Bet On?
The NC State vs Duke betting odds might be a shade higher than expected, although it’s hard to find fault with the Blue Devils -6.5. The KenPom March Madness rankings have Duke 12.33 points better on a neutral court.
The public loves an underdog, so NC State will have some support at the game, although Duke will also. It’s hard to go against NC State as well as its playing, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Blue Devils roll.
The total is lower than the first two meetings between the teams. In the regular season, the total was 150.5 and it dropped to 146 for the ACC Tournament. It’s even lower for this game, although you have to expect that considering what’s at stake.
This is likely the end of the road for NC State, although it’s hard to give the Wolfpack so many points. Even though the total is on the lower side, this one has a decent chance to stay under the number and that’s the way to bet the game.
For odds on NCAA Tournament games today, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
