Providence Hopes to Boost NCAA Tourney Standing Against Marquette
Providence vs Marquette Expert Pick: Golden Eagles 13-1 at Home
The Marquette Golden Eagles may be a legitimate national championship contender, but the Providence Friars have already knocked them off once this college basketball season. However, that was back on Dec. 19, before Friars star Bryce Hopkins suffered a season-ending knee injury.
The Friars have kept their heads above water in the months since. Still, with Selection Sunday just around the corner, they have almost no room for error. That makes Wednesday’s (7 p.m. ET) game against No. 5 Marquette vitally important for Kim English’s team.
Marquette opened as a 10.5-point favorite and has climbed to -11.5 on the spread and -675 on the moneyline. Conversely, Providence is +490 to pull off the upset. The projected total has climbed from 147 to 149, with a slight edge to the Over at -120 odds.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both NCAAB teams, assess the odds, and give our Providence vs Marquette expert pick.
Friars vs Golden Eagles 
Day/Time:
Location: Fiserv Forum; Milwaukee
Streaming: FS1
Providence vs Marquette Betting Trends
The Providence Friars are 17-10 ATS, including 7-2 away from home. Providence’s games have trended slightly toward the Under, as the Friars are 13-14 against the Over/Under. Meanwhile, the Marquette Golden Eagles are 16-10-1 ATS, including 10-4 at home. Marquette is also just 10-17 against the Over/Under.
Be sure to remember these betting trends when assessing our Providence vs Marquette expert pick.
Tourney Fate Hangs in Balance
As the regular season winds down, Providence finds itself directly on the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Friars (18-9, 9-7 Big East) have won four straight and five of their last six games to climb the Big East Conference standings.
Providence has scored some impressive wins along the way, beating Wisconsin 72-59 in non-conference play and Marquette 72-57 in their Big East opener. The Friars also knocked off Creighton 91-87 in overtime, giving them two wins over current AP Top 25 teams.
Because of that and solid peripheral rankings — No. 54 in the NET and No. 53 in KenPom — Providence is squarely in the hunt for March Madness. In fact, ESPN bracketologist Joel Lunardi projects the Friars as one of the final four teams in the field of 68. Meanwhile, oddsmakers have them -120 to make the NCAA Tournament and -110 to miss it.
Providence has a legitimate go-to player in Devin Carter. The junior guard is averaging 19.3 points to go with 8.3 rebounds and 1.6 steals. Carter has had double-doubles in four of his last five games and is coming off a huge performance (22 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists, four blocks) in last Wednesday’s 79-75 victory over Xavier.
Both Carter and George Mason transfer Josh Oduro, a 6-foot-9 senior averaging 16.5 points and 7.0 rebounds, have helped Providence stay afloat following Bryce Hopkins’ season-ending ACL injury.
Providence ranks 120th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency but is 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents are shooting only 41%.
The Friars are just 13-14 against the Over/Under, but they have gone Over the total in five straight NCAAB games and 10 of their last 12. Keep that in mind when analyzing the odds in our Providence vs Marquette expert pick.
Golden Eagles Soaring to New Heights
Marquette has won two straight and 10 of its last 11 games, with the lone blemish an 81-53 loss to then-No. 1 UConn. The Golden Eagles — who are coming off an 88-64 win over Xavier on Sunday — climbed to No. 5 in the latest AP poll.
The Golden Eagles own three wins over current ranked teams, having beaten No. 13 Illinois, No. 7 Kansas, and No. 12 Creighton. They also have strong metrics, including a No. 13 KenPom ranking. As such, they are in good position to land a top-four seed in the Big Dance. In fact, Lunardi projects them as a No. 2.
Oddsmakers are bullish, pricing Marquette +500 to make the Final Four and +2200 to win the national championship, one of 10 schools with 22/1 title odds or better.
The Golden Eagles (21-6, 12-4) play through guard Tyler Kolek. The reigning Big East Player of the Year is averaging 15.1 points along with 7.7 assists and 1.7 steals. He also has a solid running mate in Kam Jones, who is coming off back-to-back 34-point outings.
Marquette ranks top 25 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, making the Golden Eagles a strong bet to play deep into March. They are shooting 48.1%, with a significant number of their attempts coming from 3-point range. Kolek, Jones and forward David Joplin are all 38.5% 3-point shooters or better.
The Golden Eagles are also 65th in adjusted tempo, meaning they like to play fast. That is obviously easier to do with a sure-handed guard like Kolek.
Marquette has covered in seven of its last eight games and is 16-10-1 ATS on the season. That includes 12-9 ATS and 17-4 OU as a favorite.
Home Sweet Home
Marquette is 13-1 at home this season, with the only loss coming in Big East play to Butler. Impressively, 11 of those victories have been by double digits.
The Golden Eagles are also 10-4 ATS at home, including 6-4 when the spread hits double digits.
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