No. 21 Dayton Readying for March Madness as Davidson Visits
Davidson vs Dayton Preview: Flyers 4-6 ATS as Double-Digit Fav
Dayton may be the A-10’s only ranked team, but it still has work to do to win the conference.
With little margin for error, the No. 21 Flyers return home Tuesday (7 p.m. ET) to host Davidson.
Dayton is a comfortable 10-point favorite and -550 on the moneyline, while Davidson is +410 to pull off the upset. Meanwhile, the projected total is 132.5.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the betting odds in our Davidson vs Dayton preview.
Davidson Wildcats vs Dayton Flyers 
Location: UD Arena; Dayton, Ohio
Day/Time:
Streaming: CBS Sports Network
Davidson vs Dayton Betting Trends
The Davidson Wildcats are 14-11 ATS, including 6-4 away from home. Davidson’s games have trended toward the Under, as the Wildcats are 9-15-1 against the Over/Under. Meanwhile, the Dayton Flyers are 13-12-1 ATS, including 5-8 at home. Dayton has gone Over the total in 14 of its 26 games.
Be sure to remember these betting trends when assessing the odds in our Davidson vs Dayton preview.
Davidson Fading Fast
Inconsistent play has befuddled Davidson, which has alternated wins and losses over its last seven games. After a decent showing in non-conference play, the Wildcats (15-12, 5-9) sit near the bottom of the A-10 NCAA basketball standings.
With four regular-season games remaining, the Wildcats’ only hope of making the Big Dance is a surprise run through the A-10 Tournament. At the moment, the likelihood of that happening is extremely slim, and that may be generous.
On a positive note, the Wildcats have some impressive wins on their ledger, having beaten Maryland, Charlotte, and Ohio. Conference play, however, has exposed them. More specifically, it has taken its toll on a team that lacks cohesion and offensive skill. The Wildcats — No. 108 in the NET rankings and No. 103 in the KenPom ratings — rank just 168th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Conversely, they are 59th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Four players are averaging between 12.2 and 13.3 points, but leading scorer David Skogman, a 6-foot-10 senior, is out for the season with a foot injury. In his absence, Reed Bailey and Connor Kochera have taken over as the primary producers on offense.
Davidson is coming off a 66-63 loss to Richmond on Saturday in which Bailey, a 6-10 sophomore, had 23 points and 11 rebounds. A 5.5-point underdog, Davidson covered the spread for the fifth time in the last six games.
Over that same span, the Wildcats have gone Under the total five times. They are just 9-15-1 against the Over/Under, hitting the Over at a rate of just 36%. Keep that in mind when analyzing the betting odds in our Davidson vs Dayton preview.
Dayton Flying High
As the only team ranked in the AP Top 25 from the A-10, Dayton seemingly has a clear path to the NCAA Tournament. However, the 21st-ranked Flyers must hope for a better effort after falling 71-67 to George Mason last Wednesday. The loss dropped the Flyers to 21-5, including 11-5 in A-10 play.
Fortunately, the Flyers’ resume remains sound. With quality non-conference wins over St. John’s and Cincinnati plus strong peripheral rankings — No. 20 in the NET and No. 26 in the KenPom — the Flyers seem to be safely in the field of 68. In fact, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi projects them to be a No. 6 seed.
Meanwhile, NCAAB futures have them +1800 to make the Final Four and +8000 to win the national championship, one of 26 schools with 80/1 title odds or better.
Richmond and Loyola Chicago are slightly ahead of Dayton in the A-10 with matching 12-2 conference records, but the Flyers still get to play Loyola Chicago on March 1, albeit on the road. Richmond has already beaten Dayton, 69-64 on Jan. 27.
Dayton, ranked 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency, tends to play through DaRon Holmes II. The 6-10 junior is averaging 20.2 points on 55.3% shooting to go with 7.9 rebounds and 2.2 blocks. Holmes has scored at least 24 points in five of his last seven games, including a season-high 34-point effort against St. Bonaventure on Feb. 2.
A high percentage of the Flyers’ offense comes from the perimeter. They are eighth nationally in 3-point field goal percentage (39.2) despite ranking just 183rd in scoring. Guard Koby Brea (48.7%) is the Flyers’ top 3-point shooter, but Pittsburgh transfer Nate Santos is also over 40%. Conversely, Dayton is 63rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Flyers are 13-12-1 ATS, including 10-11 ATS and 18-3 OU as a favorite. That includes 4-6 ATS when favored by at least 10 points.
Handicapping the Game
This is the second of two regular-season meetings between the teams. Dayton opened A-10 play on Jan. 3 with a 72-59 victory over Davidson. The Flyers shot only 7 of 21 from 3 — well under their season rate of 39.2% — but got balanced scoring from Holmes II, Kobe Elvis, and Santos to cover as 4.5-point favorites. The trio combined for 51 points.
Dayton has only gotten stronger since then, and it now gets Davidson at home, where it’s 13-0. Curiously, the Flyers have covered in just five of those 13 games. However, the Wildcats seem to have issues that are beyond fixing.
Davidson vs Dayton Game Odds
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