Baylor vs TCU Betting: Horned Frogs Small Favorite
Both Teams Looking for 20th Victory
The Baylor Bears visit the TCU Horned Frogs in the best of the college basketball games today. Both teams will enter the game with 19-8 overall records and 8-6 marks in Big 12 Conference play. Baylor has dropped two games in a row, while TCU enters the game off a win against Cincinnati. The two teams are pretty comparable, so it’s no surprise the Baylor vs TCU betting has the Horned Frogs favored by 2.5. The total on the game is 148.5.
Baylor Bears vs Horned Frogs 
Day/Time:
Location: Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, Texas
Streaming: ESPN
Baylor Thrives on Offense
As Baylor’s offense goes, so go the Bears. Baylor is No. 5 in the nation in the KenPom efficiency ratings and tops in the Big 12. The Bears average 82.3 points per game despite playing an extreme slowdown game. But Baylor makes the most of its opportunities on offense. In Big 12 games, the Bears are shooting 34.9% on 3-pointers and 52.8% on 2-pointers. Baylor does a good job on the offensive boards and is the best team in the conference getting to the foul line.
The Bears aren’t as solid defensively, ranking No. 10 in the conference. Baylor allows teams to shoot 35.4% from 3-point range and 54.3% on 2-pointers. But the Bears hold their own on the boards and don’t send teams to the foul line too often. Teams don’t shoot that many 3-pointers against Baylor and try to get the ball inside.
The Bears are a solid 16-9-1 against the spread this season. Baylor is 11-8-1 away from home this season and 7-6-1 in conference games. The Bears are 11-7-1 against NCAAB teams with winning records. In totals, Baylor has gone 14-12, but 6-8 in Big 12 Conference games.
TCU Tough at Home
The Horned Frogs have one of the best home court advantages in college basketball. The KenPom ratings have TCU with a 4.3-point home court allotment, making the Horned Frogs No. 4 in the nation. But TCU has been a good team ATS this season, both home and away. The Horned Frogs are 17-10 ATS and 9-5 at home. TCU is 10-4 in conference games and 12-8 when favored. The horned Frogs have gone 14-13 in totals this season and 8-6 in Big 12 games.
The Baylor vs TCU betting preview shows the Horned Frogs are one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the conference. But they don’t shoot that many. TCU hits a conference-best 38.2% of 3-pointers in Big 12 games and 49.7% on 2-pointers. But only 2.8% of TCU’s points come on 3-pointers. The team scores 53.6% of its points on 2-pointers. The Horned Frogs are solid on the offensive glass, but are prone to making some turnovers.
The TCU defense is pretty average, ranking No. 8 in the conference. The Horned Frogs are pretty strong defending the 3-pointer, where they allow 33.2%, but teams are making 53.2% of 2-pointers against them. TCU allows opposing teams to get too many offensive rebounds, but do a decent job of forcing turnovers.
What to Expect
Baylor is going to come out and play its traditional half-court game. The Bears aren’t in any hurry offensively and will try to keep TCU from getting its transition game going. The Bears are No. 14 in the conference in average time per possession. TCU is No. 3.
Both squads are a little better offensively than defensively. Each team scored 76 points in regulation of their first meeting, which TCU won 105-102 in triple-overtime.
Who to Bet On?
The Baylor vs TCU betting line is pretty much where you would expect. The teams are close to each other in terms of power ratings. But you have to give TCU an edge for home court and Baylor an edge as the Bears are playing with revenge. So there’s no real edge here against the spread. This probably isn’t the game to take a side for one of your NCAAB best bets.
But there is probably a slight edge in terms of value in the total. Both teams shot well in the first meeting and there were 62 combined free throw attempts. There should be a little bit more emphasis placed on defense in this one, especially in the case of Baylor. The Horned Frogs scored 1.17 points per possession in the first meeting and you don’t win often allowing that.
From a value perspective, the best play in this game is going to be the under 148.5. Both defenses should play a little better and the pace should be a bit on the slower side.
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