Can Princeton Win Ivy League Title? Beating Harvard is Key
Princeton vs Harvard Spread: Crimson 8-13 ATS, Among Worst in D1
The race atop the Ivy League men’s basketball standings is heating up, and NCAA Tournament hopeful Princeton cannot afford to stumble over the next few weeks.
With little margin for error, every game is paramount. Thus, many eyes will be on the Tigers when they visit rival Harvard on Friday (7 p.m. ET).
Princeton opened as a 6-point favorite at -115 odds, with the Over/Under projected at 140.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down the Princeton vs Harvard spread in our college basketball game preview.
Princeton Tigers vs Harvard Crimson 
Location: Lavietes Pavilion; Cambridge, Mass.
Day/Time: Streaming: ESPN+
Princeton vs Harvard Betting Trends
The Princeton Tigers are 11-9 ATS, including 5-6 away from home. The Tigers have been far more volatile in the Over/Under market, where they’re 7-12-1. Meanwhile, the Harvard Crimson are just 8-13 ATS, including 3-8 at home. On the flip side, they are 13-8 against the Over/Under.
Be sure to remember these betting trends when assessing the Princeton vs Harvard spread.
Tigers Hope to Dance Again
Princeton has won four straight and is 19-3 (7-2 Ivy) on the season. As it eyes a second consecutive Ivy League title, Princeton sits just a game behind Cornell and Yale for first place.
The Tigers narrowed the gap with a 73-62 victory over Yale on Saturday. Xaivian Lee led the Tigers — 4-point favorites — with 19 points. They shot 48.1% from the field.
Princeton has already collected some quality wins (Rutgers, Drexel) and ranks in the top 75 in both the NET (53) and KenPom (67). Still, its fate rests on its ability to win the Ivy League Tournament. Without question, that is the Tigers’ only conceivable path to the Big Dance.
While Lee (18 PPG) is the Tigers’ top scorer, they are quite balanced. He is joined in double figures by Caden Pierce and Matt Allocco. Known for their trademark slow-tempo attack, the Tigers rank 28th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Tigers can stroke it from the perimeter (35.2%), but they are also capable of scoring in the paint through the 6-7 Pierce, who’s shooting 53.5%. They have been far more vulnerable on the other end of the floor, ranking 137th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
According to NCAA basketball odds, Princeton started the season 6-0 ATS but has covered in just five of its last 14 games. It is 14-1 OU as a favorite, with the lone loss coming against Cornell on Jan. 27. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Princeton vs Harvard spread.
Struggles Persist for Crimson
Consistency continues to elude Harvard. The Crimson have alternated wins and losses in each of its last eight games according to NCAA basketball scores, and if that trend continues, they could find it challenging to finish among the Ivy League’s top four teams.
Harvard (13-9, 4-5) is coming off an 80-75 win over Columbia on Saturday. Freshman Malik Mack led the Crimson — 2-point underdogs — with 21 points and seven assists. The 6-10 Justice Ajogbor added 13 points, 11 rebounds and six blocks.
The Crimson don’t really have any signature non-conference wins, and they are 0-4 against the top three teams in the Ivy League. On top of that, their peripheral rankings — No. 172 NET, No. 202 KenPom — are relatively poor. As is the case with Princeton, their only path to the Big Dance is through the conference tournament, assuming they even qualify.
The Crimson tend to play through Mack (18.5 PPG) and 6-8 Chisom Okpara (16.7), their only starters averaging double figures. They rank just 247th in scoring and 227th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Perimeter shooting (34%) has been a team-wide issue.
Harvard has also had its issues on defense, sitting 183rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Despite their size, they are 219th nationally in rebounding. That doesn’t seem likely to improve down the stretch.
Because of its 8-13 record ATS, Harvard has been difficult for bettors to trust. That includes 4-12 ATS over its last 16 games. Its 38.1% cover rate is among the lowest in Division I. Furthermore, the Crimson are just 5-8 OU as an underdog.
Handicapping the Game
This is the second of two meetings between the schools this season. Princeton coasted to an 89-58 home win in the Ivy League opener on Jan. 6. Lee went off for a season-high 33 points on five 3-pointers, and Harvard shot only 5 of 21 from deep.
Essentially, the same issues persist for Harvard. It struggles to defend, and it isn’t scoring enough to make up for those issues. As such, the Crimson’s season is dangerously close to falling apart.
Winning on the road is difficult, but it has not been much of an issue for Princeton. The Tigers are 8-3 away from home, including 6-6 ATS in road/neutral-site games.
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