In the world of sports betting, understanding and analyzing statistical data is crucial to making informed decisions and gaining an edge over bookmakers. One valuable tool that has gained immense popularity among betting experts is the KenPom Ratings. Created by statistician and analytics guru Ken Pomeroy, these ratings have revolutionized the way bettors evaluate teams and matchups in various sports, especially basketball.
Understanding KenPom Ratings for Betting
KenPom Betting is a system of performance-based rankings and advanced statistical metrics used to assess the quality and efficiency of basketball teams (and sometimes other sports teams). These ratings take into account various factors, including offensive and defensive performance, pace of play, strength of schedule, and other key performance indicators. KenPom Ratings provide a more nuanced and comprehensive understanding of a team’s abilities beyond just their win-loss record, allowing bettors to make more educated predictions.
How To Use The KenPom Ratings
KenPom Ratings are valuable tools for sports bettors looking to make informed decisions. Here’s how to use them effectively:
KenPom Ratings provide insights into offensive and defensive efficiency, helping you understand a team’s true capabilities beyond win-loss records.
Analyze team ratings before a game to identify disparities. Higher-rated teams may have advantages against lower-rated opponents.
KenPom Ratings might not account for home-court advantage explicitly. Factor it in when evaluating matchups and point spreads.
Look for discrepancies between KenPom Ratings and bookmakers’ odds. If a team has a higher rating than implied by the odds, it might be a value bet.
While KenPom Ratings offer season-long data, consider recent performances to understand a team’s current state and form.
Use KenPom Ratings to assess projected margins and pace of play, helping you make informed decisions on point spreads and totals.
KenPom Ratings are a valuable tool but don’t rely solely on them. Combine them with other factors and stay informed about injuries and team news.
Types of KenPom Ratings
Best Sports to Bet Using KenPom Ratings
1. College Basketball:
College basketball is the sport where KenPom Ratings originated and where they are most commonly used. With a wealth of statistical data available for college teams, KenPom Ratings provide valuable insights into team performance, offensive and defensive efficiency, and the strength of the NCAAB schedule. This makes college basketball an ideal sport to bet on using KenPom Ratings.
Suppose Team A has a higher KenPom ranking than Team B, indicating that Team A is statistically superior. If Team A is an underdog according to the point spread, the KenPom Ratings suggest there might be value in betting on Team A to cover the spread or even win outright.
2. International Basketball:
While KenPom Ratings are primarily focused on college basketball in the United States, they can also be applied to international basketball leagues with sufficient statistical data. Leagues in Europe, Asia, and other regions often have detailed stats, enabling bettors to use KenPom Ratings for a competitive advantage.
In a European basketball league, two teams with contrasting KenPom Ratings face off. The team with the higher rating has shown better efficiency throughout the season. Betting on the higher-rated team might be a wise choice, given their statistical advantage.
3. Other Team Sports with Advanced Statistics:
Though KenPom Ratings gained prominence in basketball, they can be applied to other team sports that have advanced statistical tracking. For example, some soccer leagues provide in-depth metrics on team and player performance, enabling bettors to create their own “soccer KenPom Ratings” for more informed betting decisions.
In soccer, a team with a higher “soccer KenPom Rating” may have demonstrated better offensive and defensive efficiency, making them a strong candidate for a win or a favorable result in terms of goal-based betting markets.
Volleyball is another sport where advanced analytics and statistical data are becoming more prevalent. With performance metrics available for teams, players, and different aspects of the game, KenPom Ratings-inspired systems can be adapted for volleyball betting.
In a professional volleyball league, two teams with varying KenPom-style ratings meet in a match. The team with the superior rating has displayed more efficient play in terms of scoring points and preventing the opposition from doing so. Betting on a higher-rated team might offer a higher probability of success.
Note: While KenPom Ratings were originally designed for basketball, they can potentially be adapted to other sports with similar statistical metrics and data availability. However, the level of accuracy and applicability might vary depending on the sport and the depth of available statistics.
Pros and Cons of KenPom Ratings
KenPom Ratings provide a wealth of advanced statistical information that goes beyond traditional win-loss records.
They offer a more accurate representation of a team’s strengths and weaknesses, aiding in making better betting choices.
KenPom Ratings can help bettors identify potential upsets or point spread discrepancies, leading to profitable opportunities.
KenPom Ratings are most useful for basketball betting, which might limit their usefulness for bettors interested in other sports.
As the name suggests, these ratings primarily focus on college basketball, which may not be ideal for bettors focused on professional leagues
While statistics are crucial, KenPom Ratings might not consider intangible factors such as team chemistry or coaching strategies.