Texas Tech vs Baylor Game Odds: Battle of Ranked Teams

The No. 23 Texas Tech Red Raiders visit the No. 13 Baylor Bears on Tuesday in a key Big 12 Conference game. The winner of the game will remain even with Houston in the loss column. The conference title is going to come down to the bitter end, so every Big 12 victory counts.

The Red Raiders are slumping a little bit, dropping their last two games. Baylor ended a three-game slide with wins over UCF and Iowa State. The Texas Tech vs Baylor game odds see the Bears favored by 6 and the total is 144.5 in this Big 12 Conference match-up.

Texas Tech Still Scoring, Not Stopping

The Red Raiders are averaging 77 points per game and allowing 68.4 points, but a lot of those stats came against one of the weaker non-conference slates in the country. Texas Tech played the No. 262 schedule in non-conference games, according to the KenPom ratings. In conference play, Texas Tech is allowing 74.7 points per game and have given up 79.8 points over its last five contests. The Red Raiders are 10-11 against the NCAA basketball lines and 14-7 in totals. Texas Tech does slow things down, making its scoring averages pretty strong. The Red Raiders rank No. 1 in Ken Pomeroy’s offensive efficiency rankings. But Texas Tech is last in defense.

The strength of the offense is 3-point shooting, which is best in the conference. In Big 12 games, the Red Raiders are shooting 41% from 3-point range. The 2-point shooting isn’t bad at 51.3%, but the Red Raiders are better from the outside. The pace Texas Tech plays at helps keep turnovers to a minimum and the Red Raiders are No. 2 in the conference in turnover percentage. The Red Raiders don’t grab many offensive rebounds and do a fair job getting to the foul line.

The Red Raiders allow teams to shoot 39.9% on 3-pointers, which is worst in the conference. The 2-point defense is pretty average, but Texas Tech allows too many offensive rebounds and are average in forcing turnovers. The Red Raiders don’t send the opposition to the foul line often. The Red Raiders are allowing 6.3 more points per game in conference games compared to their overall average.

Baylor Goes Cold in Conference Games

The Bears have seen their offense fall apart a little bit since the start of conference play. Baylor is No. 4 in the country in KenPom’s offensive ratings. But the Bears are No. 5 in Big 12 in conference-only games. The Bears are shooting 41% on 3-pointers for the season, but just 34.1% in Big 12 contests. Baylor scores 84 points per game and 75.5 in conference play. As a result the Bears are 3-5 in conference totals and 4-4 against the point spread. The Bears have seen their NCAA basketball championship odds climb to +4000.

Offensively, the Bears are almost two different teams when you look at their non-conference stats compared to conference stats. The Bears have seen their shooting percentages go down. But Baylor still does a decent job grabbing offensive rebounds and taking car of the basketball. The Bears play at the slowest pace in the conference, but have done a good job of capitalizing on second chances. Baylor is No. 3 in the conference at getting to the foul line.

The Bears do a decent job on defense, although their pace helps. Baylor is No. 8 in the conference in defensive efficiency and doesn’t do anything particularly great. The Bears are average or a little better than average in most of the key defensive stats. Baylor does a little better defending the 3-pointer than the 2-pointer.

What to Expect

The first thing you have to expect in this one is a slow pace. Both teams like to play deliberately and should find a willing partner here. Slowing the pace down will help mask a little bit of each team’s offensive firepower. But it will also help conceal a few of the defensive deficiencies both teams are guilty of having.

Both teams shoot the 3-pointer well and that could impact the final score a little more than the pace. The Bears shot 39.6% on 3-pointers in the two games last year. The Bears won both games.

Who to Bet On?

The Texas Tech vs Baylor game odds of Bears -6 is pretty much where you would expect the spread to be. The Bears are a better team and are at home. Baylor is coming off a huge road win against Iowa State and might show some effects of that one. It’s a tough spot for the Bears.

The Texas Tech vs Baylor game odds on the total is a little bit tricky. The pace will be slow, but one of the two defenses is going to have to make some stops. Both NCAAB teams can hit from the outside, but it’s a question of how many chances they get to shoot.

The total could go either way here depending on how each team does from the outside. So, the best value play in this one is going to be Texas Tech +6. Take the Red Raiders for one of your NCAAB picks and parlays for Tuesday.

For NCAA basketball schedule, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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