Miami vs Virginia Matchup Odds: Cavs Favored in ACC Tilt
Virginia Riding 6-Game Winning Streak
The Miami Hurricanes visit the Virginia Cavaliers in one of the better games on Monday’s abbreviated slate. Miami has won three of its last four, while Virginia has won six straight games.
The teams last met Dec. 20, 2022, when Miami won 66-64. The Cavaliers (17-5) aren’t what they were a few years ago, but are still a decent team. But with a tough schedule to close out the regular season, can’t afford many losses. Miami needs a few more wins over good teams to have any chance at making the NCAA Tournament.
The Miami vs Virginia matchup odds see the Cavaliers favored by 5 and the total on the game is at 132.5 points.
Hurricanes vs Cavaliers 
Day/Time:
Location: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, Virginia
Streaming: Watch Live Sports
Miami’s Road Woes Have Been Costly
If the Hurricanes don’t secure an NCAA Tournament berth, their play away from home will be a big reason why. Miami is 11-2 at home, but just 4-5 away from this season. The Hurricanes have lost to Louisville, which is inexcusable for a decent team. Miami has also dropped games to Florida State, Syracuse and N.C. State. Those aren’t bad teams, but tournament-bound teams will win at least one of those games. As a result, Miami’s odds to win March Madness are a lofty +25000. The ‘Canes are +9500 to make the Final Four.
The Hurricanes are 12-10 against the point spread and 11-11 in totals. After going 20-6 ATS as an underdog the past two years, the ‘Canes are just 2-4 so far this season. Part of that has to do with their struggles on the road. In conference games, Miami is 5-6 ATS and 4-7 in totals.
The Hurricanes have some solid offensive numbers. But thanks to a weak non-conference slate, those numbers are dropping in ACC play. Miami is ranked No. 7 in the ACC in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings. The Hurricanes shoot well, but make too many turnovers, don’t get to the foul line and aren’t that good at offensive rebounds.
Miami’s defense isn’t that bad. They allow some points, as Miami likes to push the pace a little bit. The Hurricanes are No. 3 in the conference in 3-point defense. Their 2-point defense is No. 9 in the ACC, but NCAAB teams shoot a lot of 3-pointers against Miami. Of the points allowed in conference play, 39.7% have come on 3-pointers.
Cavaliers Stay the Course
This year’s Virginia team isn’t doing anything differently than they’ve done lately. Virginia slows the game down and plays decent defense. The Cavaliers are unbeaten at home, where they’ve gone 12-0 and 8-3-1 against the spread. Virginia is 4-7 in totals at home, but have gone 7-4 in ACC games. The Cavaliers aren’t getting a lot of respect in the NCAAB futures. Virginia is +4900 to reach the Final Four and +15000 to win the NCAA Tournament.
This year’s Virginia team doesn’t shoot quite as well, which is a key reason why its not in the NCAAB rankings. The Cavaliers are shooting 44.5% from the field, but can make the 3-pointer. It’s the 2-point shooting that is hurting the team. Virginia is shooting 39.8% on 3-pointers in ACC games, but just 46.4% from the inside. The Cavaliers take pretty good care of the basketball and can grab a few offensive rebounds.
Defensively, the Cavs are decent. Virginia can force some turnovers and does a good job preventing offensive rebounds. The Cavaliers hold teams to 47.1% on 2-pointers, but do allow 35.9% on 3-pointers in conference play. Virginia has held all teams to 66 points or less on its six-game winning streak.
What to Expect
When the Cavaliers play, you know you’re going to see a slow moving team. Virginia does a pretty good job of dictating the pace, even when playing teams that want to push the ball. The Cavaliers take 19.8 seconds per possessions in ACC games. Miami uses up an average of 16.3 seconds.
Miami will try to speed the game up, but can play at a slower tempo if needed. The Hurricanes see teams use an average of 18.1 seconds against them on defense. So Miami is a bit used to seeing more of a half-court game on defense.
Who to Bet On?
The Miami vs Virginia matchup odds of Virginia -5 might be a shade low. The Cavaliers are a little bit better and are tough at home. The Hurricanes have struggled a bit on the road this season. But it gets hard to lay more than 5 points with Virginia due to its style.
The Miami vs Virginia matchup odds on the total are low for Miami, while a little on the high side for the Cavaliers. When the teams met last, there were 51 points scored in the final 10 minutes of the game. The situation entering the last few minutes could impact the over/under if one team is reduced to fouling.
From a trend standpoint, this is one of Virginia’s favorite situations. The Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS the last three years at home where the total is between 130 and 134.5. Virginia is 29-7 ATS going all the back to 1997. But those games have also gone under the total a high percentage of the time. Virginia is 0-7 in totals the last seven games where the number was between 130 and 134.5. So, will tag along with that trend to continue and take the under 132.5 in this NCAABÂ game.
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