UConn Opens as Double-Digit Favorite Over Alabama in Final Four

UConn now sits just two wins away from a rare national championship repeat. Next up for the top-seeded Huskies is a date with fourth-seeded Alabama in the Final Four on Saturday (8:49 p.m. ET) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

UConn is a heavy 11.5-point favorite at -115 odds as well as -750 on the moneyline. Meanwhile, Alabama is +525 to win outright. The projected total is 161.5.

What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down the Alabama vs UConn odds in our NCAA Tournament game preview.

Betting Trends

The Alabama Crimson Tide have covered in four straight games and are 21-15 ATS. A majority of Alabama’s games have trended toward the Over, as the Crimson Tide are 27-9 against the Over/Under. Meanwhile, the UConn Huskies are 26-12 ATS, including 4-0 in the NCAA Tournament. As for the Over/Under, the Huskies are just 16-21-1.

Be sure to remember these betting trends when assessing the Alabama vs UConn odds.

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Roll Tide Roll

Alabama (25-11) is headed to its first Final Four in program history after beating sixth-seeded Clemson 89-82. The Crimson Tide — seeded fourth in the West Regional — covered as 3-point favorites and went Over the total for the 13th time in their last 15 games.

Their 27-9 record against the Over/Under equals a cover rate of 75%, matching the second highest rate in the country behind Wright State (76.7%). Keep that in mind when analyzing the Alabama vs UConn odds.

Mark Sears scored a game-high 23 points on seven 3-pointers and was named Most Outstanding Player of the West Region. The senior guard is averaging 24.3 points during the NCAA Tournament, exceeding his season average of 21.5.

Led by Sears and Hofstra transfer Aaron Estrada, Alabama is among the country’s most explosive NCAAB teams. The Crimson Tide are third in efficiency and first in scoring, averaging 90.6 points.

The concern is defensively, where the Crimson Tide rank outside the top 100 in efficiency. They’ve already allowed 100 points three times this season, including 102 in an SEC quarterfinal loss to Florida.

Will those issues plague them against UConn? The Crimson Tide have already knocked off one No. 1 seed this tournament, beating North Carolina 89-87 in the Sweet 16.

UConn (35-3) is back in the Final Four after thumping third-seeded Illinois 77-52 in the East Regional final. The Huskies — the top overall seed and 8.5-point favorites — covered in their 10th straight tournament game dating to a 2022 first-round loss to New Mexico State. More impressively, the Huskies have won by an average of 23.1 points during that span.

The Huskies are the first defending champions to return to the national semifinals since Florida in 2007. They are also bidding to be the first team since the Gators to repeat.

Donovan Clingan starred in the Huskies’ latest romp, recording 22 points, 10 rebounds, five blocks and three steals. The 7-foot-2 sophomore — a projected top-5 pick in June’s NBA Draft — has two double-doubles this tournament and three in his last five games.

Because of Clingan, the Huskies were able to overcome poor shooting performances from All-American Tristen Newton and Stephon Castle, who were a combined 1 of 12 from the floor and 0 of 5 on 3-pointers.

Averaging 81.5 points, the Huskies rank first in offensive efficiency and lead the NCAAB rankings in point differential (plus-18.1). Meanwhile, they are fourth in defensive efficiency.

UConn has been favored in every game this season, except for a 69-65 loss to Kansas on Dec. 1. The Huskies are 14-7 ATS and 21-0 OU when favored by double-digits on the NCAA basketball spread.

Handicapping the Game

It is NCAA title or bust for UConn. After dismantling Illinois with a 30-0 run, the Huskies have -195 odds to win March Madness. That’s the second shortest odds of any team since 2000 behind 2021 Gonzaga.

The Huskies held Illinois, the nation’s No. 2 offense, to a season-low 52 points on just 25.4% shooting. Thus, don’t expect them to be intimidated by Alabama’s high-scoring unit.

Ranking ninth in tempo, the Crimson Tide love to push the pace with Sears and Estrada. UConn, however, has consistently demonstrated an ability to play any style.

For NCAAB odds, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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