March Madness Elite Eight: UConn vs Illinois Analysis & Final Score
UConn vs Illinois Betting Lines: Huskies Favored by 8.5 Points
UConn vs Illinois Final Score
Top-seeded UConn continues its quest for back-to-back NCAA titles when it faces third-seeded Illinois in the East Regional final on Saturday (6:09 p.m. ET) at TD Garden in Boston. The winner will advance to the Final Four in Phoenix against either Alabama or Clemson.
UConn opened as an 8.5-point favorite and -375 on the moneyline, with Illinois priced +295 to win outright. Meanwhile, the projected total is 155.5.
What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the Illinois vs UConn betting lines in our NCAA Tournament game preview.
UConn Huskies vs Illinois Fighting Illini 
Day/Time:
Location:TD Garden, Boston
Streaming: TBS
Betting Trends
The Illinois Fighting Illini have covered in five straight games and are 23-13-1 ATS. A majority of Illinois’ games have trended toward the Over, as the Fighting Illini are 26-11 against the Over/Under. Meanwhile, the UConn Huskies are 25-12 ATS, including 9-1 over their last 10 games. As for the Over/Under, the Huskies are 16-20-1.
Be sure to remember these betting trends when assessing the Illinois vs UConn betting lines.
Long Time Coming for Illini
Illinois (29-8) is headed to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2005 following its 72-69 victory over No. 2 seed Iowa State. The Fighting Illini — seeded third and 1.5-point underdogs — advanced behind 29 points from Terrance Shannon Jr.
Shannon Jr. has 85 points this tournament and is third in Division I in scoring, averaging 23.5 points.
Illinois entered the regional semifinal with the top offensive efficiency rating in the country, but it was the defense that shined from the outset. Iowa State made only one field goal over the first four-plus minutes and was held below 40% shooting.
As such, Illinois covered for the fifth straight game and improved to 23-13-1 ATS, including 5-1-1 as an underdog. The Fighting Illini have been an underdog of 8.5 points or more just once this season, an 83-78 loss to Purdue in which they covered at +10.5. Shannon Jr. was suspended for that game.
Additionally, the Fighting Illini have hit the Over in five of their last six games and are 26-11 against the Over/Under. Their 70.3% cover rate is the second highest of any remaining tournament team, behind Alabama (74.3%). Keep that in mind when analyzing the Illinois vs UConn betting lines.
The Fighting Ilini — ranked 10th in KenPom and 13th in the NET — have 14 combined Quad 1 and 2 wins.
The Strong Get Stronger
UConn (34-3) is a step closer to history following its 82-52 rout of fifth-seeded San Diego State in the Sweet 16. The Huskies — the tournament’s top overall seed and 11.5-point favorites — led by as many as 32 and have now covered in nine straight March Madness games dating to their 2022 first-round loss to New Mexico State. More impressively, the Huskies have won by an average of 22.8 points during that span.
With three more victories, the Huskies can become the first team since Florida in 2007 to win back-to-back national championships.
Averaging 81.6 points, UConn leads the country in offensive efficiency and is 21st in scoring. All five starters average double figures in points, led by All-American guard Tristen Newton (15.3 PPG). The Huskies are also sixth in defensive efficiency, far exceeding the Fighting Illini (84th).
UConn has been favored in nearly every game this season, except for a 69-65 loss to Kansas on Dec. 1. The Huskies’ 25-12 record ATS is the best of any remaining tournament team. They are 16-9 ATS (22-1 OU) when favored by eight points or more.
The Huskies — first in KenPom and second in the NET — already have seven ranked wins this season, not including the tournament. They have won 10 straight overall dating to a Feb. 20 loss to Creighton. Be sure to take that into account when making your NCAA basketball picks.
Handicapping the Game
Can anyone beat UConn? Anyone? Right now, it doesn’t seem like it. Dan Hurley’s team is an absolute buzzsaw, humiliating one opponent after the next in whatever style they choose. Each of the Huskies’ last nine NCAA Tournament wins have been by 13 points or more. It’s no wonder they sit atop the college basketball rankings.
Illinois is unique in that it has the offensive capabilities to match UConn. With Shannon Jr., Marcus Domask and Coleman Hawkins, the Fighting Illini can score in a variety of ways. They are especially proficient at getting to the line, averaging 23.1 free-throw attempts per game.
That may allow the Fighting Illini to keep it close. However, given recent trends, it’s hard to bet against the Huskies.
For odds on NCAA Tournament games today, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
