WCC Favorite St. Mary’s Looks to Stay Dominant Over San Francisco
San Francisco vs Saint Mary's Preview: Gaels 8-2 ATS Over Last 10
Many have tried, but nobody from the West Coast Conference has been able to beat the Saint Mary’s Gaels. At least not this season. The Gaels are off to a 12-0 start in conference play, including a victory over perennial power Gonzaga.
With March just around the corner, the Gaels certainly hope to build on that momentum heading into both the conference and NCAA Tournaments. That starts with winning every remaining regular-season game, including Tuesday’s (11 p.m. ET) anticipated matchup with San Francisco at University Credit Union Pavilion.
Saint Mary’s opened as an 8-point favorite but was quickly bet down to -7.5. Meanwhile, the projected total opened at 133 with a slight lean to the Over at -115 odds.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the odds in our San Francisco vs Saint Mary’s preview.
San Francisco Dons at Saint Mary’s Gaels 
Day/Time:
Location: University Credit Union Pavilion; Moraga, Calif.
Streaming: ESPN2, ESPN+
San Francisco Dons vs Saint Mary’s Gaels Betting Trends
The San Francisco Dons are 15-11 ATS, including 5-4 away from home. Additionally, they’re 13-13 against the Over/Under but have gone Under the total in six of their nine road games. Meanwhile, the Saint Mary’s Gaels are 14-12 ATS, including 8-6 at home. The Gaels are also 13-13 against the Over/Under.
That is important to remember when assessing the betting odds in our San Francisco vs Saint Mary’s preview.
San Francisco Eye WCC Crown
Saint Mary’s may be the team-to-beat in the West Coast Conference, but San Francisco is hot on the Gaels’ heels. The Dons have won six straight since back-to-back losses to Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga and are tied with the Bulldogs for second in the league with March just around the corner.
But at +3500, the Dons have the longest odds between the three to win the WCC.
The Dons (21-6, 10-2) are coming off an 82-59 rout of Loyola Marymount on Saturday. An 8.5-point favorite, San Francisco shot 54.1% from the field, including 13 of 26 on 3-pointers, to cover for the first time in six games.
Despite its impressive record, San Francisco still sits on the outside of the NCAA basketball tournament bubble. Its resume is modest, still lacking the kind of signature wins that could catapult it past other tournament hopefuls. It hasn’t beaten any ranked teams, and a non-conference win over Minnesota has lost some of its luster due to the Golden Gophers’ struggles. As such, the Dons come in at 60th in the NET rankings and 69th in KenPom.
The Dons impressively rank 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents are averaging just 65.0 points, 26th fewest nationally, and 6.8 3-pointers per game. But because they play at a relatively slower pace, the Dons’ margin for error is thin.
Conversely, San Francisco is just 102nd in adjusted offensive efficiency. It typically plays through forward Jonathan Mogbo. The Missouri State transfer is averaging 15.2 points on 66.7% shooting to go with 10.5 rebounds and 1.8 steals.
Top of Their Class
So far, so good for Saint Mary’s, which has roared to a 12-0 start in WCC play as it closes in on a return to the NCAA Tournament. The Gaels (21-6, 12-0) have won 13 straight games and are coming off a 103-59 blowout of Pepperdine on Saturday. Lithuanian forward Augustas Marciulionis poured in 28 points to help the Gaels cover as 19-point favorites.
On the heels of that win, Saint Mary’s remained No. 18 in the AP Top 25 poll.
The Gaels’ resume is impressive, highlighted by road wins over No. 22 Colorado State and Gonzaga. They have also beaten New Mexico, who’s received the seventh most votes of any team outside the Top 25. Those victories, combined with solid metrics (No. 15 NET, No. 22 KenPom), have the Gaels squarely in the field of 68 as March looms. In fact, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi projects them as a No. 7 seed.
Oddsmakers are also bullish on the Gaels, pricing them -1100 favorites to win the WCC and +1600 to reach the Final Four. Their NCAA title odds, meanwhile, are +7000.
Defense is a clear strength. On average, the Gaels are holding opponents to just 57.7 points, second fewest in Division I behind No. 2 Houston (55.0). They are also giving up just 4.9 3-pointers per game.
While much of that’s a credit to their defensive institutions, it is also a product of their pace of play. The Gaels average just 62.6 possessions per 40 minutes, leaving them bottom-10 nationally in tempo.
St. Mary’s has covered in eight of its last 10 games and is 14-12 ATS. As a favorite, it is 17-6 OU and 11-12 ATS. Be sure to keep that in mind when analyzing the betting odds in our San Francisco vs Saint Mary’s preview.
Handicapping the Game
Saint Mary’s is looking for its second win against San Francisco this season. In the teams’ last matchup, the Gaels pulled away to a 77-60 victory as 1-point underdogs thanks to a 22-point effort from Aidan Mahaney. The Gaels shot 47.5% from the field, and their trademark defense held San Francisco just 2 of 17 from 3-point range.
According to the college basketball injury report, both teams are relatively healthy. That makes for another intriguing matchup as the Gaels look to close in on a regular-season WCC title.
Saint Mary’s has won 19 straight at home against San Francisco, and it’s positioned to build on that impressive streak. But it certainly cannot take the Dons for granted.
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