Surging Toledo Looks to Continue Dominance Over Rival Ohio
Ohio vs Toledo Betting: Rockets Hold Steady as 6-Point Favorites
The Ohio Bobcats will rekindle their in-state rivalry with the Toledo Rockets on Friday (9 p.m. ET) at home.
Toledo opened as a 6-point favorite, and the line has mostly stayed in place. The Rockets are also -260 on the moneyline, with Ohio priced +220 to win outright. Meanwhile, the projected total has dropped from 161.5 to 159.5.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both college basketball teams and assess the Ohio vs Toledo betting odds in our college basketball game preview.
Bobcats vs Rockets 
Day/Time:
Location: Savage Arena; Toledo, Ohio
Streaming: ESPNU, ESPN+
Ohio vs Toledo Betting Trends
The Ohio Bobcats are 10-13 ATS, including 2-6 away from home. The Bobcats have gone Over the total in 12 of their 23 games. Meanwhile, the Toledo Rockets are 12-12 ATS, including just 5-6 at home. As for the Over/Under, their record is 13-11.
Be sure to remember these trends when assessing the Ohio vs Toledo betting odds.
Bobcats Hanging Tough
Ohio has won four of its last five games but is coming off last Saturday’s 100-87 loss to Arkansas State in the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge. A 2.5-point underdog, Ohio allowed 11 3-pointers, and the 100 points surrendered were a season-high.
At 13-11, including 7-4 in MAC play, the Bobcats are uncertain at best to make the postseason. They’re tied with Bowling Green for fourth in the conference, behind Akron, Toledo, and Central Michigan.
The Bobcats don’t really own any notable wins, and they’re only 168th in the KenPom rankings. But they’ll have plenty of opportunities to distinguish themselves down the stretch of their NCAAB schedule with games against two of the three teams they’re trailing.
Offensively, the Bobcats run through guard Jaylin Hunter. The senior is averaging 14.8 points on 43.6% shooting to go with 5.0 assists. Guard Shereef Mitchell (13.3), a Creighton transfer, and forward AJ Clayton (11.8) are also double-figure scorers. As a team, the Bobcats rank 101st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 65th in scoring at 78.8 points per game. They’re also top 75 in 3-point shooting (36%), so opposing defenses tend to have their hands full.
The much bigger issue is on the other end of the floor. The Bobcats are just 278th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’ve already given up 80 points or more six times, including in an 86-77 loss to Toledo on Jan. 2 to open MAC play.
Ohio has covered in four of its last five NCAAB games but is just 10-13 ATS. It’s 1-2 ATS and OU in its three previous games as an underdog, in which the spread ranged between 2.5 and 8 points. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Ohio vs Toledo betting odds.
Toledo (15-9, 9-2) has distinguished itself as one of the favorites to win the MAC. The Rockets now sit just one game behind first-place Akron despite dropping two of their last three games. They’re coming off a 109-104 double-overtime loss to Appalachian State last Saturday in the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge.
Despite their strong record, the Rockets are far from a certainty for the postseason. There’s still more work to be done, especially without a signature win on their resume. The metrics seem to agree, as Toledo’s rated just 134th by KenPom.
Additionally, the Rockets rank 62nd in adjusted offensive efficiency but just 266th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Guard Ra’Heim Moss is the Rockets’ top scorer, averaging 16.5 points on 47.2% shooting to go with 5.6 rebounds. But balance is a strength, as he’s joined in double figures by Dante Maddox Jr. (15.7), Tyler Cochran (13.5) and Javan Simmons (13.0).
As a team, Toledo ranks 38th nationally in scoring (80.7) and leads the MAC in fast-break points. It attempts just 16.7 3-pointers per game (345th nationally), so most of its offense tends to come at or near the basket.
But like Ohio, the Rockets have struggled to defend. Opponents are averaging 77.4 points (316th nationally) and shooting 49.2%. They’ve surrendered at least 77 points in three straight games.
Toledo has covered in four of its last six games and is 12-12 ATS. When favored, it is 6-8 ATS but 11-3 OU.
Handicapping the Game
Toledo has owned this series of late, with nine wins in its last 10 games against Ohio. It’s also covered in each of the last five meetings. That includes a nine-point victory earlier this NCAAB season as a 2-point underdog. Five different Rockets scored in double figures that day, led by 18 points apiece from Moss and Maddox Jr. The Rockets shot 56.9% as a team.
The Rockets tend to struggle defensively, so it’s no wonder they’ve gone Over the total in four of their last six games and in 54.1% overall. Meanwhile, Ohio has gone Over at a 52.1% clip.
For college basketball odds, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
