Will James Madison Take Advantage Of Long Homestand?
Check Out Our Jaguars vs Dukes Predictions For This Highly Anticipated Sun Belt Matchup
The James Madison Dukes started the season 14-0. But they’ll have to create a new streak against South Alabama after an 81-71 loss to Southern Miss on the road Saturday.
The Dukes added impressive wins against Michigan State and Southern Illinois earlier in the season. They also began the Sun Belt conference 2-0. But now they’re sitting at 2-1 after that loss. The Dukes will look to regroup with a home game against South Alabama.
The South Alabama Jaguars have been very inconsistent this season. They’ve gone 8-7 on the year and are in danger of falling to .500 on the road against James Madison.
The Jaguars began conference play with a win over Old Dominion on the road, 61-59, but have dropped their last two games to Appalachian State and Georgia State. Both games were at home.
Therefore, James Madison is a -13 favorite, with the total currently at 154.5 against South Alabama.
Will the Dukes get back on track and begin a new win streak?
We’ll provide our Jaguars vs Dukes predictions below.
Jaguars vs Dukes 
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Jaguars vs Dukes Predictions & Trends
The South Alabama Jaguars have still been profitable against the spread this season. They’ve covered seven of 12 NCAAB matchups and have hit the Over in seven of 12 games.
The Jaguars are 3-3 on the road but are facing a James Madison team that hasn’t lost at home this season. The Dukes are currently 6-0 at home and have covered ten of 14 games this season. The Over in James Madison games has also hit in eight of the 14 games this season.
In two meetings last year between South Alabama and James Madison, the Jaguars earned wins twice as slight underdogs. They’ll be underdogs for the third straight time, looking for an outright win for the third consecutive time, too.
The Jaguars Lack Defense
The South Alabama Jaguars have given up 90+ points in back-to-back games at home. Granted, one of the two was an overtime loss. However, even South Alabama coach Richie Riley admitted that the defense was extremely poor in the last game against Georgia State.
Georgia State shot 55% from the field and scored ten three-pointers in its win against South Alabama.
But that game was well within reach at halftime. South Alabama was only trailing by two at the break. Eventually, Georgia State gradually increased the lead as the game went on.
The defense for South Alabama needs to get better. Everyone in that locker room knows that. However, it won’t be easy against a one-loss James Madison squad.
Home Sweet Home
James Madison lost a road game to Southern Miss over the weekend. It stung, knowing James Madison was undefeated up to that point.
However, the Dukes have a chance to rebound with a four-game homestand coming up.
The Dukes won’t have another road game until January 24. This is the perfect time to start a new streak and get comfortable in the Sun Belt.
After all, James Madison only joined the Sun Belt last season. They had finished in the top four and went to the conference semifinals. They’ve already made a significant impact on the conference. But, as we acknowledged above, the only college basketball team that beat James Madison twice last year was South Alabama.
This is a significant game for James Madison. The Dukes can’t afford back-to-back losses in the conference and certainly don’t want to lose the first game of a four-game homestand.
A Complete Mismatch
South Alabama might’ve got the best of James Madison last year. But the analytics prove that this game is a complete mismatch in 2024.
The South Alabama Jaguars have shot 32.2% from three and 50.2% from inside the arc. They’ve also been getting to the foul line at a low rate and have earned only 26.1% of offensive rebounds.
Meanwhile, the Dukes have held teams to 29.5% from three and 49% from inside the arc. They’ve also limited offensive rebounding to below 30%. While James Madison does foul at a high rate, South Alabama isn’t very aggressive at getting to the line in the first place.
South Alabama is also good at limiting turnovers. However, James Madison, at home, could be tricky. The Dukes have earned 20.6% of turnovers, a top 50 rate in college basketball.
On the other hand, James Madison is an efficient and consistent offense. The Dukes have nailed 34.7% from three and 55.2% from inside the arc. James Madison has also turned the ball over under 15% of the time and has hauled in 33.2% of offensive rebounds.
South Alabama is solid at defending the three. But the Jaguars probably won’t limit second chances as much as James Madison. Also, South Alabama has allowed teams to shoot 53.5% from inside the arc. If the Dukes consistently get paint touches and shoot around the rim, they’ll have significant success against this South Alabama defense that is one of the worst in the Sun Belt.
The only area where James Madison has struggled is from the foul line. The Dukes have hit only 68.1% from the line this season. But it’s still likely that the Dukes get to the foul line more often. Both teams could end up with nearly the same amount of makes from the foul line.
The James Madison Dukes aren’t going to set any significant NCAAB records this year. But check those NCAA basketball scores throughout the year. They’re still going to have a big season.
Our Jaguars vs Dukes predictions include the Dukes earning the win and covering against the Jaguars. Therefore, for our NCAAB picks of the day, we’ll grab the Dukes at -13 (-110).
For NCAAB betting news, NCAA basketball schedule, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
