2023 First Responder Bowl – Texas State vs Rice Free Picks
Freshman Quarterback Padgett Looks to Lead Rice to Victory in First Responder Bowl
Texas State And Rice Will Be Getting Together for the First Time
Neither Texas State nor Rice will need to go very far for the first meeting between the programs thanks to a matchup in Dallas at the 2023 First Responder Bowl. Texas State is listed as a 4.5-point favorite after the line opened with the Bobcats favored by 6.5 points.
Texas State is 2-8 in its last 10 games against Texas schools. The Bobcats are in a bowl game for the first time since making the jump to the Football Bowl Subdivision level. When it comes to the NCAA football scores, Rice is 7-16 versus teams from the Lone Star State over the last five seasons. The Owls are eyeing the program’s first bowl win since topping Fresno State 30-6 in the Hawaii Bowl.
Receivers Drew Donley and Joey Hobert are questionable while running back Calvin Hill has entered the transfer portal for Texas State.
For Rice, quarterback JT Daniels is out and tight end Jack Bradley (8 catches) is questionable. Linebacker Chris Conti (53 tackles) has missed the last three games.
Rice became bowl-eligible by beating Charlotte and Florida Atlantic in the final two games of the regular season. The Bobcats topped Georgia State 45-24 on Nov. 4 to earn bowl eligibility.
Only Charlotte had longer odds than Rice to win the American Athletic Conference coming into the season. The Owls finished tied for fifth in the AAC. Texas State was tied for 11th in the Sun Belt title odds when the season began, only to finish tied for sixth.
First Responder Bowl
Texas State vs Rice 
Records: Texas State (7-5) at Rice (6-6)
Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Day/Time: Streaming: ESPN, ESPN+
Texas State Looks To Start Early
Texas State has relied on a balanced offense in head coach G.J. Kinne’s first season at the helm as the Bobcats are 23rd nationally in both rushing and passing offense. Keep that in mind when it comes to the 2023 First Responder Bowl.
Texas State has done some of its best work in the first quarter. In the six wins, the Bobcats have outscored their opponents 83-36. However, Texas State is 116th in scoring defense in the third quarter and 132nd (out of 133 teams) in points allowed in the fourth quarter. Former LSU and Auburn quarterback T.J. Finley threw for 227 yards and one touchdown in a loss to Houston in his only other previous bowl game.
He passed for 366 and 368 yards in his last two games with six touchdown passes and three interceptions.
Ismail Mahdi is the top runner with 1209 yards and 10 touchdowns in 12 games. He is also averaging 15.3 yards on 18 catches.
Mahdi is averaging 7.04 yards per carry with eight touchdowns in the seven wins compared to 5.08 yards and just two TDs in the five losses.
Padgett Hopes To Have the Owls Soaring
It was a big deal when quarterback JT Daniels landed at Rice after stops at Southern California, Georgia, and West Virginia.
Daniels had a pair of 400-yard passing games but heading into the bowl game, the offense will be led by freshman AJ Padgett with a concussion ending Daniels’ college football career.
Padgett has completed more than 60% of his passes in his three starts with six touchdown passes with two scoring runs. That is something to consider heading into the 2023 First Responder Bowl.
Rice ranks ninth in points per game in the first quarter and is 25th in scoring defense in the opening quarter as well.
Points Could Come Early And Often in the First Responder Bowl
Rice is 3-2 outright when listed as the favorite with Texas State losing three of its five games as the underdog.
The Owls led the American Athletic Conference with an 8-3-1 mark against the college football betting lines. However, they were just 2-2-1 ATS as the favorite. Texas State is 3-2 against the spread as the underdog and is 6-6 in all games.
The college football odds total has gone under in four of the last six games for Rice but the last five matchups versus Sun Belt teams headed over the total.
There has been very little movement in the total with the total currently at 60 after opening at 60.5. Six games for Rice this season would have landed over that total. Seven of the contests played by Texas State would have ended up over 60.5 points. The last four games for the Bobcats have 69, 54, 108 and 96 points scored over the last four games and that is enough to predict the game to land over the total.
Rice was second in the American Athletic Conference in red-zone defense. Will that be the difference in this matchup?
With no previous meetings, this isn’t the easiest game to get a read on. Even without Daniels, go with Rice to win the game outright and to cover as well.
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