Birmingham Bowl – Duke Blue Devils vs Troy Trojans Free Picks
Blue Devils 2-4 ATS Last Six Games; Trojans One Blemish Since September
With starting quarterback Riley Leonard heading for Notre Dame, Duke (7-5) has felt the sting of the Irish for the second time this season after dropping a 21-14 decision back in week five. Duke was never the same since and now has to pick up the scattered pieces of 2023 in time to take on the Troy Trojans (11-2) who have a friend to the betting public over their last nine games (8-1 ATS).
Oddsmakers opened the Trojans as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Checking into the current number, Troy is a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 44. The moneyline is Troy -290 after opening -300 to represent the lone movement in this NCAAF game.
76 Birmingham Bowl
Duke Blue Devils vs Troy Trojans 
Day/Time:
Location: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama
Stream: ABC
Duke Loses Head Coach And Quarterback
We already knew that Trooper Taylor would act as interim head coach after Mike Elko bolted for College Station to coach at Texas A&M. After this game, the Blue Devils will hand the reigns to former Miami head coach Manny Diaz who led the Hurricanes to three bowl games in his three NCAAF seasons.
Quarterback Riley Leonard was already a non-factor when handicapping this game because he announced his intention to enter the transfer portal. A sure, if you can’t beat them join them move, he’ll be the signal caller in South Bend next season.
True freshman Grayson Loftis will start for Duke after completing 53.7% of his passes in five games according to this season’s college football stats. Most of the low percentage was earned in a 24-21 win against Wake Forest after Loftis was just 7-19 for 86 yards. After talking to people in the know, we feel better about the Duke offense and what they’ll be able to contribute to the total. We continue our Troy vs Duke free pick preview by turning our attention to the Trojans.
Troy Hopes For Large Home Contingent
The drive between Ytoy Alabama and Birmingham is just two and a half hours so naturally the Trojans are looking for that home edge even though they have a problem similar to the Blue Devils at head coach. It was rumored that Jon Sumrall would be the new head coach at Tulane, a rumor that became fact last Friday leaving Greg Gasparato as the interim coach.
It will be his first game as a head coach after spending 13 seasons as an assistant at various programs including Army, Louisville, and one season with Troy.
Concerning betting on this game, you can bet that Gasparato wants to leave a good impression on the university brass, and you do that by playing an exciting brand of football which either means points or failed attempts to push the envelopes which could leave Duke with short fields which could lead to one on the more entertaining college football scores of the bowl season. We conclude our Troy vs Duke free pick preview with our official selection.
Wait To See If We Get Help With Total
We’re ready to go all-in with the total, but it’s important to be patient because chaos on the offensive side or coaching changes usually promotes under-betting. We haven’t seen a massive move yet, but anything will give us a better number.
The Side has surprisingly passed the key number of seven and now allows us to wait to see if this number goes higher. I don’t think Duke envisioned being in this college bowl game when doing bowl projections early in the season, but there is something called reverse motivation, and we think you might have that here.
It’s when a team’s expectations are higher, making their opponent the better play because of pure motivation, but there are times when the perceived unmotivated college football team starts to feel disrespected after changes to the coaching staff or NCAAF players leaving, which is happening here.
To finish up our Duke vs Troy preview we are going with Duke plus the points and the over. There isn’t as big of a dropoff with Loftis at QB as some would think.
For NCAAF betting news analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine
