Independence Bowl – California vs Texas Tech Free Pick
Bears Claw Into Bowl With Three Straight Wins; Red Raiders Need to Stay Focused
In what has become a war of attrition for most programs not going to the playoffs, bettors are forced to forget everything they know about the two teams before them because much can change because of the transfer portal. Gone are the days of determining which team is more motivated than the other.
We’ll dig into the impact of the portal on each of these programs when the California Golden Bears (6-6) head to Shreveport. Louisiana to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6) in the Independence Bowl.
Texas Tech opened as a 1.5-point favorite before being bet up to -3. There has been some movement on the under 57.5 after opening 58.5. It appears as if the money will continue to flow in the direction of the Bears with 65% of the tickets written and 56% of the money coming in on the Golden Bears.
This game will conclude the day of the College Bowl schedule, so let’s make sure we make your ‘Get-Out Game’ a winner.
California Golden Bears vs Texas Tech Red Raiders 
Day/Time:
Location: Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl, Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Stream: ESPN
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Bears Hope To Not Be Just Happy To Be Here
This will be the first time in three seasons that California finds themselves in a bowl game after a late-season win streak allowed Cal to get to the 6-win mark.
After a 4-8 mark last year, bettors will have to determine whether they think this is a Bears team that feels accomplished because they improved on last season’s 4-8 mark or are hungry for more. Cal was picked to finish 9th in the preseason Pac-12 NCAA Football standings poll.
We like to recommend teams with individuals that may have something to prove and if we’re looking at running back Jaydn Ott (1,260 yards), we may take a peak at the other side of the field to see Red Raider back Tahj Brooks getting most of the attention after a 1,443 yard season.
Usually, when we see a high-scoring game it’s because there was a fireworks show through the air at some point, but we think the real show will be on the ground for both college football teams. We continue our California vs Texas Tech betting preview by turning our attention to the Red Raiders.
Brooks Returning To Red Raiders
There would have been a massive line shift if Tahj Brooks decided to leave the Red Raiders program but this week the senior said he would be back in Lubbock next NCAAF season to conclude his college career. The decision wouldn’t have impacted our play that much, but it was nice to see the All-Big 12 running backs add some fondant to our play.
The nation’s fourth-ranked runner averages just over 120 yards per game. Their running game opens it up for a passing game that is 26th in the nation with 35.6 attempts per game for a team that always seems to come out strong. Texas Tech is ranked 30th in the country in 1st quarter scoring with 7.8 points per game and 2nd in yards per punt return with 19.8 per attempt.
They’re 7th in kick-off returns with 25.5 per return. Although we may think the Red Raiders may be the least excited about playing in this game, there are aspects of their offense and special teams that should allow them to put up enough points.
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Jump On Side Now, Total Later
We think the number is going to be solid, but there is a chance you could see some 2.5’s out there, so shop for the Bears and the field goal now. As predicted, the total has dropped a point, and it may drop more because over 60% of the money continues to flow in on the under.
There’s even an interesting reason to take California on the moneyline. In 2023, teams that were between 2-4 point favorites were 83-64 straight up, but -10.21 units if wagered on the moneyline.
This trend goes back to 2016 with favorites holding a 513-415 record but producing -81.66 units of profit. Our official Independence Bowl NCAA football prediction is California plus the points and the over, but don’t be surprised if they win straight-up. That does it for our California vs Texas Tech betting analysis, we wish you all the best with your wagers this bowl season.
For NCAAF betting odds, college football scores analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
